Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pearlington, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:26PM Monday October 18, 2021 2:40 PM CDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:42PMMoonset 5:06AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1204 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 18 2021
Rest of today..Northeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds near 5 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight, then becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1204 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 18 2021
Synopsis..High pressure will build in from the north today and tomorrow as it continues to shift east of the area. This surface ridge will settle in over the western atlantic.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pearlington, MS
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location: 30.14, -89.48     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 181731 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

AVIATION UPDATE. Updated for 18z taf issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 416 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday) . Fairly benign weather continues a couple more days with just temps and dewpoints to consider. A fairly weak upper level ridge will be tracking across the Mississippi Valley today and Tuesday. This will be the start of some moderating temps. Highs to remain below normal today, reaching climo tomorrow. Stayed with NBM due to generally close guidance forecast temps. At the surface, high pressure ridge will be moving east as well which will allow for moisture return as winds rotate around from northerly back to southerly. Dewpoints could be back in the 60s by the end of the day Tuesday. While this occurs, a few coastal showers may begin to develop late in the day. Inland, the atmospheric column will probably still be too dry to support rain but could be increasing clouds. A northerly stream trough, centered near the Great Lakes latitude, will aide in weakening the ridging aloft and draw deeper moisture northward across the CWA. Thus, expecting shower and a few thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday. 50-70% coverage per NBM seems appropriate for the setup. The GFSbfr soundings over the region look a bit interesting. Although the main trough is WELL north of the region, there's modest shear and ample instability in place. At the same time, a dry slot exists in the mid levels. Tend to think there's at least some threat for severe weather. Will need to monitor this over the next couple days.

MEFFER

LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday) . The combination of both northern and southern stream energy will result in continued convective chances through Thursday. In the southern stream, an 80 knot jet streak will be positioned across the Gulf South and northern Gulf of Mexico. Increased forcing along the nose of the jet as it moves into the area, along with some weak jet coupling from a weaker northern stream jet moving through the Carolinas and Southeast should provide enough forcing in advance of the approaching northern stream trough axis to produce convective development in the morning hours. The northern stream trough axis and associated surface front should then begin to move through the area from Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Moderate instability will be in place with MLCAPE values of between 1000 and 1500 J/KG and mid-level lapse rates between 6.0 and 6.5 C/km expected. PW values will be near seasonal norms in the 1.5 inch range, so enough moisture will be in place to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development into the afternoon hours.

The front and parent upper level trough axis will continue to push east of the area Thursday night into Friday morning, and expect to see the best chance of shower and thunderstorm activity shift into the coastal waters over this timeframe. Increasing negative vorticity and dry air advection will begin to feed into the area, and this is supported by expected precipitable water values falling from around 1.5 inches to between 1 and 1.25 inches by Friday morning. Increasing subsidence in the mid and upper levels will lead to weak mid-level lapse rates and a capping inversion over the weekend. The atmosphere will turn increasingly stable with limited cloud development expected for both Saturday and Sunday. Significant cold air advection is not expected in the wake of the front, and temperatures should be near average through the weekend.

PG

AVIATION . VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals for the forecast period. High pressure remains over the area and only a few high clouds are expected. -BL

MARINE . A surface ridge north of the area centered near the TN/MS border will track east today. This will allow the local pressure gradient to steadily relax. Winds and seas will follow suit and plan on letting the SCY expire on time. Will hold on to SCS until mid morning when winds fall below 15kts. Progressing through the week, winds will transition out of the east and then southeast by mid week as that ridge settles in over the western Atlantic. The next upper level trough to traverse the country looking to be a bit more shallow than previously expected. This may keep the next frontal boundary from reaching the coast and then zonal flow resumes.

MEFFER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 49 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 50 BTR 52 80 65 81 / 0 10 10 60 ASD 53 82 67 82 / 0 10 20 70 MSY 63 82 72 83 / 0 10 30 70 GPT 56 81 69 81 / 0 10 20 60 PQL 53 80 67 82 / 0 10 20 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi52 min N 5.1G6 70°F 69°F1020.6 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 21 mi52 min NE 11G13 69°F 75°F1020.3 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 34 mi52 min NNE 9.9G12 68°F 73°F1019.5 hPa
CARL1 38 mi52 min 78°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS16 mi50 minNE 610.00 miFair73°F52°F47%1020.3 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA23 mi47 minNNE 510.00 miFair74°F53°F48%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8
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N10N10N4N40--------------------NE7----------NE6NE6
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N10N6--------------------0N5N5NE8NE12NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:39 AM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 AM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:07 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:33 PM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:21 PM CDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:20 AM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:05 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:29 AM CDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:04 PM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM CDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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