Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson Point, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:46PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:17 PM CDT (17:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:53PMMoonset 1:43PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 940 Am Cdt Tue Sep 28 2021
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming near 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 940 Am Cdt Tue Sep 28 2021
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the southeastern states through the end of the week. At the same time, a broad area of low pressure will remain stalled over the southern plains. These two features will keep a prevailing onshore flow in place through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson Point, MS
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location: 30.21, -89.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 281421 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 921 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

MORNING UPDATE.

Continued mixing in the lower levels has caused in an improvement to visibility in the region. Radar and Satellite has shown TS development moving into the region, increasing PoPs quicker than anticipated in the Baton Rouge, and eastern coastal MS regions. As such the forecast was updated to remove the dense fog advisory and to increase PoPs and TS chances. -KO

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday) . A narrow upper level ridge is developing along the Mississippi Valley from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge isn't particularly strong with 500mb heights in the 585DM range. That means it will not be able to provide enough subsidence to prevent convection. Moisture recovery has occurred with PW's jumping from not much over 0.5" to 1.85" on yesterday evening's sounding at the WFO. A surge of 2" air will push in from the west today. At the same time, an upper trough will be digging into Texas. Still expecting to see a gradient in coverage as seen yesterday with western portions of the forecast area seeing the more numerous activity. Adjusted the rain chances to reflect that expectation with upwards of 90% west of I-55 and closer to 50% on the MS coast. Also, looking at GFSbfr soundings, there looks to be quite a bit of instability. CAPE values expected to be in the 2k-3k range. Shear is pretty much non- existent. So severe potential is low but a gusty wind is possible as low level afternoon dewpoint depressions will be decent. Wednesday and Thursday will pretty much be a repeat of today over the CWA as a shortwave races northeast through Texas. Didn't see any reason to stray from NBM as broad agreement between various models looks good. The one exception for Thursday is that the upper ridge centered east of the local area will try to build west as the trough over Texas heads northeast. This will be the start of drying back out and portions of at least coastal Mississippi may miss out on convection.

MEFFER

LONG TERM (Thursday night and beyond) . The extended period will show a drying trend as compared to the short term portion of the forecast, but not completely dry.

The shortwaves that will produce the precipitation tomorrow through Thursday will shift to the north of the area by Thursday night, but not really scour out moisture to any great extent. The next in the series of shortwaves will pull out of the southern Rockies across the central Plains States on Saturday, into the middle Mississippi River Valley. The GFS is a little more aggressive with the southern extent of the shortwave moving across the area over the weekend than is the ECMWF, but even a few of the EC ensemble members indicate some threat of precipitation through the weekend, so can't comfortably go with a dry forecast quite yet. Forecast soundings from the GFS keep precipitable water values well in excess of 1.5 inches for most of the area through at least next Monday which also supports mention of at least some precipitation each day. Expect that precipitation will be mainly diurnally driven from Friday onward.

Don't see much spread in temperature forecast guidance for the extended period with highs forecast slightly above normal and lows 1 to 2 categories above normal.

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AVIATION . Currently VFR at all forecast terminals, although starting to see a few clouds below FL020. There are lower conditions across southwest Louisiana with IFR ceilings there. Expect that we will see build down of clouds later tonight, with low end MVFR or IFR ceilings likely at most terminals by about 10-11z. Threat of low ceilings (below FL010) is somewhat more likely than low visibilities. Low ceilings should lift to around FL020 by mid-morning. Convective threat should increase by mid to late morning, as the LIX 00z sounding this evening already showed that any capping inversion is pretty much history. For now, will carry VCTS at all terminals for a good portion of the day with dissipation around sunset. Low conditions probable to redevelop toward sunrise Wednesday at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC, but that's beyond the forecast valid time for this package at those terminals

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MARINE . Surface high pressure situated northeast of the area is sliding east to just off the Carolina coastlines early this week. This will cause winds to rotate to more southeasterly today and settle into that wind direction. That flow pattern with small variations will be maintained throughout the rest of the week. Generally winds will remain below exercise caution speeds but they could approach 15 knots in offshore waters late in the week as the pressure gradient slightly tightens.

MEFFER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 85 70 84 69 / 70 30 90 20 BTR 84 70 84 69 / 90 50 90 20 ASD 87 71 87 70 / 70 40 80 10 MSY 87 73 86 73 / 80 50 80 20 GPT 86 72 85 71 / 60 40 70 20 PQL 86 70 85 69 / 60 40 70 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 8 mi47 min SE 7 G 8.9 81°F 80°F1016.7 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 32 mi47 min SSW 6 G 8.9 83°F 82°F1016.5 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi47 min 76°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 41 mi47 min E 8 G 9.9 79°F 1017.4 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi47 min SSW 6 G 8 83°F 79°F1015.3 hPa
CARL1 49 mi47 min 81°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS14 mi30 minVar 57.00 miThunderstorm81°F77°F89%1015.9 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS17 mi24 minSE 810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity80°F74°F82%1015.9 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS24 mi21 minS 610.00 miThunderstorm77°F76°F95%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E4SE3SE4SE5S7SE4Calm--------------------CalmCalmSE4SE4S35
1 day agoCalmCalmS7S6--S4CalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmCalmE4SE8E6
2 days agoN10NE5--N5N5N4N3CalmCalm------------------CalmCalm444Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
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Tue -- 03:07 AM CDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:29 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.922.12.22.12.11.91.81.61.31.10.90.70.50.40.40.40.50.60.70.91.11.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:34 AM CDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:56 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:52 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.71.81.91.91.91.91.81.71.51.41.210.80.60.50.40.40.40.50.60.811.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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