Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 1:41 AM   Moonset 1:38 PM

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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 316 Am Edt Fri May 31 2024 /216 Am Cdt Fri May 31 2024/
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Saturday morning - .
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Monday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters smooth. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Tuesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 316 Am Edt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis -
easterly winds will become southeasterly later today and tonight. Winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight as a strong nocturnal easterly surge moves across our waters. Seas will also build to 3 to 5 feet tonight. Winds and seas will subside Saturday afternoon then become light by Monday. Some showers and Thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Sunday, though timing of these showers and storms is a bit uncertain.

FXUS62 KTAE 311036 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 636 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Easterly winds are expected to become more southeasterly through tonight with a weak stationary front draped across the northeastern portions of the area. Fairly zonal flow is expected aloft with a tiny bit of ridging possibly suppressing any shower and thunderstorm development over the eastern Big Bend and GA. A few showers and storms may be able to develop across the FL Panhandle along the seabreeze this afternoon. If storms are able to develop, forecast soundings show an inverted V and DCAPE values around 800-900 J/kg, which indicate a potential gusty wind threat. Highs this afternoon are forecast in the upper 80s north of the stationary front to the mid 90s across Florida. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Saturday's forecast is kind of a mess, meaning it's highly dependent on where outflow boundaries set up. An approaching shortwave from the lower Mississippi Valley will lift northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, ongoing MCSs off to our west may send outflow boundaries toward our area or just west. These boundaries in concert with the approaching shortwave will be the focus for renewed thunderstorm development. The evolution of the storms on Saturday is highly uncertain given the placement of these mesoscale features. Regardless, it appears the better chance for rain Saturday will be over the Central Time Zone counties, decreasing farther to the east. Some of the storms Saturday could be strong to possibly severe with damaging winds being the primary severe hazard. Instability will be sufficient with about 20-30 kt deep layer shear (which is sufficient for summer-like severe setups). Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the Central Time Zone counties in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for Saturday. Additionally, PWATs will climb into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, providing ample moisture for a localized flash flood threat in the heavier downpours. Highs will be cloud- cooled with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Another shortwave approaches on Sunday, bringing another day of good rain chances to the area, especially over western parts of the forecast area. The environment doesn't appear as favorable for strong storms, but sufficient moisture will remain in place for some efficient rain producers. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

We'll remain in a pattern of northwesterly flow with some weak shortwaves passing near our area. With abundant moisture remaining in place, daily rain chances will remain around 20 to 30% through the end of the period. With the lower rain chances, highs will climb back to the lower to middle 90s through the week. A cold front will approach the area toward the end of the week, which could help boost rain chances later in the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

A few showers and storms will be possible along the seabreeze this afternoon, with the best chances across the FL Panhandle near KECP. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Easterly winds will become southeasterly later today and tonight.
Winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight as a strong nocturnal easterly surge moves across our waters. Seas will also build to 3 to 5 feet tonight. Winds and seas will subside Saturday afternoon then become light by Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Sunday, though timing of these showers and storms is a bit uncertain.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Rain chances begin to increase today into Saturday as moisture slowly returns to the area. High dispersions will be possible this afternoon due to very high mixing heights and slightly breezy transport winds. A seabreeze is expected to develop near the coast each afternoon before moving inland.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Some locally downpours are possible in the storms through the weekend. While widespread totals over the next 3 days generally will be around 0.5 to 1 inch over the western areas, tapering farther east, localized totals in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama could be as much as 2 to 4 inches. If these higher-end amounts materialize, then some localized nuisance flooding could occur. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined parts of southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4). Regardless, impacts of local rivers should be minimal.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 93 70 88 69 / 20 10 20 10 Panama City 92 75 85 72 / 20 20 40 20 Dothan 90 69 85 68 / 20 10 40 20 Albany 89 67 87 67 / 10 0 10 10 Valdosta 90 66 89 67 / 10 0 10 10 Cross City 93 66 91 67 / 20 10 10 10 Apalachicola 86 77 84 74 / 10 10 30 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765- 770-772-775.

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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:05 AM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:37 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:24 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Channel entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:43 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:59 PM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:39 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM CDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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