Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacombe, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:28PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:36 AM CDT (09:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 2:11AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 416 Am Cdt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 416 Am Cdt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis..A cold front is passing through the coastal waters early this morning. Strong high pressure will build in today and tonight before sliding east on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacombe, LA
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location: 30.25, -90.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 160907 AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service New Orleans LA 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday). Fall is on its way! Radar this morning shows a very broken line of showers bisecting the CWA from south of Baton Rouge to near Bogalusa. The wind shift is about 50 miles ahead of that line and the airmass change is about 50 miles behind that. Rain should be offshore before day break. A tight pressure gradient will keep winds steady and fairly strong throughout the day. Did consider a wind advisory for the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain but doesn't appear that this airmass has the type of cold air advection needed for that situation. It'll be windy there though.

The remainder of the short term forecast is quite benign with just temps and dewpoints to consider. It would be easy to try to jump on some colder single solutions with colder temps for the tonight period but like the NBM numbers. The center of the ridge will still be over TX/AR, which puts the CWA under fairly tight pressure gradient. That should support steady winds overnight and thus keep strong radiational cooling opportunity from being realized. Otherwise, guidance is pretty close for highs today and tomorrow. Monday will be the start of some moderating as weak upper level ridge slides across the entire Mississippi River Valley.

MEFFER

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday). The beginning of the forecast period starts with a ridge axis drifting to the east of the CWA. The long wave pattern also becomes zonal over the region, which can play a factor later in the forecast. After a dry and stable day of weather on Tuesday on the western edge of the departing ridge axis, the zonal flow pattern will take hold by Wednesday. A weak jet streak will develop over the Gulf South, and much of the northern Gulf will positioned beneath the right entrance region of this jet streak. A weak upper level vorticity max co-located with the jet streak will support the development of shower and thunderstorm activity by Wednesday over the coastal waters and possibly along the immediate coast. The vort lobe will continue to shift toward the eastern Gulf and shear out, but the upper level jet streak over the region will intensify. This increase in intensity will tied into an approaching northern stream upper level trough axis. Fairly strong upper level omega will in place, and this will support continued higher POP values over the coastal waters and immediate coast on Thursday. A surface low pressure system and trailing cold front will sweep toward the forecast area on Thursday, but the main problem is the front will turn parallel to the overriding zonal flow regime and that could cause the boundary to stall over the area. While the GFS, GFS EN, and GEM do keep the surface low over WI and into the Great Lakes, the Euro moves the surface low to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and weakens the low sooner. This is where the uncertainty in the guidance comes in. Current thinking is that there will be enough of a push behind the front to help it clear the area and move into the Gulf. This front will serve as a focus for increased POP values from Thursday night into Friday as the boundary moves through the area.

-KO

AVIATION. Initial wind shift ahead of the cold front is pushing southeast across the region, now south of KMYS/KNEW and about to reach KGPT. Low level cloud deck brings flight category to MVFR. IFR conditions possible at times as those decks lower. VFR likely to return as the day progresses. Strong northwest winds expected for the next 12-18 hours.

MEFFER

MARINE. Cold front will be swinging through this morning. Behind this front, strong northerly winds well into SCY range. Gusts should be limited to low 30s. With that, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones through early Sunday morning. Waves/seas will increase throughout the day as strong offshore flow persists, around 3 to 6ft for protected waters to 6 to 10ft for outer open Gulf waters. Peak highest wave conditions are likely tonight through Sunday morning, steadily lowering through the rest of Sunday through Monday. Going into early next week, winds will transition out of the east at around 8-10kts as surface ridge center remains north of the local area but tracks east across the southeast CONUS. Significant impacts expected through middle to later parts of next week as a possibly stronger cold front swings through.

MEFFER/KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 71 48 73 47 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 73 49 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 76 49 76 49 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 76 60 74 58 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 77 52 75 52 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 76 51 74 51 / 10 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532- 534.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 16 mi48 min N 20G25 77°F 81°F1014.8 hPa
CARL1 22 mi48 min 80°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi48 min W 8.9G12 78°F 84°F1015.2 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 38 mi48 min 75°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 38 mi48 min NNW 18G23 78°F 83°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi43 minN 7 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds74°F68°F82%1015.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi43 minN 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy and Windy77°F70°F79%1014.9 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA22 mi43 minWNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F75°F97%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr00000S7S8SW7SW6S5S4SW5S4S4SE30000000NW9
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1 day ago00000E4SE7SE9SE10SE10SE11SE7S10SE6SE4SE500000000
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Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:41 PM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:27 AM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:14 PM CDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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