Wednesday, October20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:13PM Wednesday October 20, 2021 7:25 AM CDT (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 6:48AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 318 Am Cdt Wed Oct 20 2021
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast with gusts to around 20 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 318 Am Cdt Wed Oct 20 2021
Synopsis..Moderate east to southeast winds tonight will gradually relax through Wednesday night, becoming more southerly on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Winds may shift to be northerly late in the week if the cold front moves southeast of the marine area and does not stall along the coast. Light to moderate easterly flow is expected to develop for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 201143 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 643 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/. Weak ridging aloft continues progressing east over the area today as a trough aloft over Wyoming makes its way east in the Northern Plains. As this occurs, flow aloft begins transitioning from more zonal to southwesterly Today. On Thursday, embedded shortwave energy within the flow aloft, and upper level divergence assoicated with the left exit region of a passing jet streak will bring enhanced lift to the region during this time. At the surface, high pressure continues progressing east parking itself over the Carolinas and remaining there through this afternoon before pushing further east with the next cold front approaching on Thursday. Surface winds will remain southeasterly and increase today as the gradient tightens slightly. The combination of surface southeasterly flow and southwesterly flow aloft will lead to gradual moisture transport across the area as through Thursday. Additionally, shallow isentropic lift in the low-levels will result in increasing stratocumulus, this morning through the afternoon.

As far as sensible weather, the best moisture will be focused over the western half of the area as the influences of the upper trough to our northwest will be more prominent. PWATS will range from 1 to 1.2 inches along the immediate coast and slowly work inland over southwestern Alabama and interior southwestern Mississippi this afternoon. Today and Thursday afternoon, PWATs will likely range from 1.5 to 1.75 inches across most of the area. Today, rain chances will begin to increase with the moisture with more scattered to likely PoPs across extreme southwestern Alabama and interior southeastern Mississippi. Additionally, we could potentially see a rumble of thunder over some areas this afternoon as better forcing looks more apparent at this time and MUCAPE values are non-zero. On Thursday, with the cold front approaching from the north and west and the additional forcing aloft previously mentioned, this day looks to be the most unsettled period of the near term. Have kept PoPs close to NBM guidance with PoPs peaking in the 60-70 percent range across a majority of the CWA (except the far eastern portion) during the day Thursday. While cloud cover will limit the extent of destabilization on Thursday, a moist boundary layer and better forcing to enhance lift results in better instability on Thursday afternoon. This will allow for some thunderstorms to be possible where CAPE values look to range from 1000-1500J/kg during this time.

For temps, onshore flow and cloud cover will keep highs in the upper 70 to low 80 range through the period. Lows will also trend warmer for these reasons, with lows Wednesday night increasing to low to mid 60s inland increasing to upper 60s down to the coast. Lastly, there is a MODERATE risk of rip current through the period. JEH/88 BB/03


AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Skies are mostly clear across the area with VFR conditions; however, overcast skies are expected to build throughout the morning. Cigs will likely remain low-end VFR through today; however, some instances of MVFR cigs could be possible during the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop around mid-day and persist through the afternoon. The best chances of rain will be over coastal Alabama and interior southeastern Mississippi. Storms should diminish during the early evening; however, MVFR to possible IFR cigs could develop overnight. The best chance for IFR appears to be west of I-65 over southeastern Mississippi. Winds will remain out of the southeast around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots this afternoon. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 426 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/ . Weak ridging aloft continues progressing east over the area today as a trough aloft over Wyoming makes its way east in the Northern Plains. As this occurs, flow aloft begins transitioning from more zonal to southwesterly Today. On Thursday, embedded shortwave energy within the flow aloft, and upper level divergence assoicated with the left exit region of a passing jet streak will bring enhanced lift to the region during this time. At the surface, high pressure continues progressing east parking itself over the Carolinas and remaining there through this afternoon before pushing further east with the next cold front approaching on Thursday. Surface winds will remain southeasterly and increase today as the gradient tightens slightly. The combination of surface southeasterly flow and southwesterly flow aloft will lead to gradual moisture transport across the area as through Thursday. Additionally, shallow isentropic lift in the low-levels will result in increasing stratocumulus, this morning through the afternoon.

As far as sensible weather, the best moisture will be focused over the western half of the area as the influences of the upper trough to our northwest will be more prominent. PWATS will range from 1 to 1.2 inches along the immediate coast and slowly work inland over southwestern Alabama and interior southwestern Mississippi this afternoon. Today and Thursday afternoon, PWATs will likely range from 1.5 to 1.75 inches across most of the area. Today, rain chances will begin to increase with the moisture with more scattered to likely PoPs across extreme southwestern Alabama and interior southeastern Mississippi. Additionally, we could potentially see a rumble of thunder over some areas this afternoon as better forcing looks more apparent at this time and MUCAPE values are non-zero. On Thursday, with the cold front approaching from the north and west and the additional forcing aloft previously mentioned, this day looks to be the most unsettled period of the near term. Have kept PoPs close to NBM guidance with PoPs peaking in the 60-70 percent range across a majority of the CWA (except the far eastern portion) during the day Thursday. While cloud cover will limit the extent of destabilization on Thursday, a moist boundary layer and better forcing to enhance lift results in better instability on Thursday afternoon. This will allow for some thunderstorms to be possible where CAPE values look to range from 1000-1500J/kg during this time.

For temps, onshore flow and cloud cover will keep highs in the upper 70 to low 80 range through the period. Lows will also trend warmer for these reasons, with lows Wednesday night increasing to low to mid 60s inland increasing to upper 60s down to the coast. Lastly, there is a MODERATE risk of rip current through the period. JEH/88 BB/03

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Friday night/ . The cold front will drift southward through Friday and stall out along the I-10 corridor by Friday afternoon. This will keep small rain chances across mainly southern portions of the area during the day on Friday into Friday night. Northern areas will remains dry as a drier airmass moves in behind the front. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland to around 70 near the coast Thursday night and in the upper 50s and low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast on Friday night. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 70s to low 80s. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/ . A fairly zonal flow pattern will be over the region through Sunday, then a longwave ridge is expected to evolve from over the region northward along the Mississippi River valley on Monday ahead of a longwave trof advancing into the western states. The upper ridge amplifies while progressing into the eastern states on Tuesday while the large upper trof begins to advance into the Plains. A surface ridge will generally be in place over the region through the period which promotes a light southerly flow over the forecast area. Despite daytime highs mainly from 80 to 85 on Saturday and Sunday, model soundings show either unfavorable lapse rates below approximately 750 mb (on Saturday) or a modest cap centered near 800 mb (Sunday). Compounding this is about a 4-5C dewpoint depression at best around 800-900 mb which will make it difficult for convection to develop in this environment. Consequently, have continued with a dry forecast over the weekend for now. There is some modest improvement in the 800-900 mb layer moisture by Monday, and have stayed with slight chance pops returning to roughly the southern half of the forecast area. Subsidence effects associated with the building upper ridge over the region may be sufficient to suppress convective development on Tuesday, but given uncertainty regarding this have opted for slight chance pops areawide for now. /29

MARINE . Small craft should continue to exercise caution in the offshore waters, southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi sound as moderate southeasterly flow slowly relaxes today. Seas 3 to 4 feet offshore will slowly subside to around 2 to 3 feet by Friday. Winds become more southerly on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Winds may briefly shift northerly late in the week; however, this is dependent on if the cold front moves southeast of the marine area and does not stall over the coast. Light to moderate easterly flow is then expected to develop for the weekend. BB/03

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi56 min E 2.9G7 71°F 73°F1021.1 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi36 min SE 14G18 79°F 80°F4 ft
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi101 min 67°F 1021 hPa67°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi56 min SE 16G17 78°F 1020.2 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi30 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F64°F79%1021.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi33 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F61°F73%1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE6NE6E9E8E12E10E12E10SE13SE13SE11SE12SE12SE14SE11SE11SE12SE10E9SE9NE5E7NE6
1 day agoN4N5N76NE8NE8NE6NE5E5NE4E6E5NE40N3N3N4N5N4----NE6N7NE6
2 days agoN4N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM CDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:57 AM CDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 06:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:29 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:57 AM CDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 06:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:53 PM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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