Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 4:47 AM   Moonset 6:07 PM

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GMZ636 Expires:202405062215;;726759 Fzus54 Kmob 061429 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 930 am cdt Mon may 6 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-062215- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 930 am cdt Mon may 6 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 930 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - An onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with wind speeds slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 061456 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1056 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

No major changes to today's forecast were required. Fog has dissipated and now a southerly cumulus field is getting underway.
Slight chance PoPs were introduced across northern portions of SW GA for the next few hrs to account for light radar returns this morning. Blakely recently reported light rain. We are still expecting spotty convective coverage this afternoon as a shortwave continues gaining latitude across the TN Valley and mid- level dry air on its southern end slides through.

Activity should focus along the seabreeze with additional showers/thunderstorms aiming to develop around Mobile Bay before drifting north ahead of an upstream shortwave moving through East TX. Bumping up high temperatures a couple degrees was considered to match what was observed yesterday. However, modest troughing aloft suggests slightly cooler readings, so left the inherited maxT's alone.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Patchy to areas of fog have developed across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend early this morning. Some of the fog has been borderline dense in a few spots and visibilities are forecast to lower in and around dawn. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 13Z, or 9am EDT/8am CDT for our Florida Counties.

As for this afternoon, it's a MOTS (More Of The Same) kind of forecast with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze. There is the potential for one or two of the storms to be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts the primary concern. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s around the region before cooling into the upper 60s to near 70 tonight.

Mid-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 this morning shows a shortwave moving through the Tennessee Valley that will head for the Mid-Atlantic states later today. The proximity of the H5 shortwave coupled with good instability and DCAPE values around 700 to 900 J/kg means some gusty winds, maybe some small hail, are possible within any of the stronger storms that happen to develop. The best chance for rain will be across the southeastern Florida Big Bend at first before shifting north into southern Georgia later in the afternoon; there is a lower chance, around 20 percent, of rain/thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor.

Patchy fog will be a concern again Monday night, especially for any areas that see rain Monday afternoon. The one wrinkle to that would be any high cloudiness that will move through thanks to the southwesterly flow aloft.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue through midweek as mid level ridging remains over the area. This ridging will help suppress shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoons, with only a few isolated storms expected across the northwest portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. The ridging is forecast to be strongest on Wednesday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Moisture will also increase across the area, causing low temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s by Wednesday night.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

On Thursday, a trough is forecast to push southeastward across the Plains, pushing a cold front towards the region. This front will eventually pass through the area on Friday, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Depending on the timing of the front, there may be some potential for severe weather on Friday. Favorable jet dynamics along with some low level shear appear more likely during the day Friday, so our local severe weather chances mainly hinge on whether or not the front is through the area by then. A slower front would mean increased severe potential.

A return to more seasonable conditions are expected in the wake of the front, with highs returning to the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows are forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A few showers and storms will be possible each afternoon, particularly along the seabreeze.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Fog lingers around a few of the terminals, notably KTLH and KECP, this morning but should lift in the next hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail much of the morning and into the afternoon and a CU field develops between 4-5k feet. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible along the sea breeze this afternoon and included some VCTS at KTLH, KVLD, and KABY to highlight a rough time-line of when to expect them.

Fog is possible again tonight, especially for KTLH and KECP.
Considering how things went early this morning, confidence was high enough to include some 1sm in the TAFs near the end of the period early Tuesday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SE winds around 8 kts with 1-2-ft seas and a dominant period up to 7 seconds.

From CWF Synopsis...Continued favorable boating conditions expected into late this coming week with persistent south to southeast winds 15 knots or less and 2 to 3 feet seas. Daily seabreezes usher an onshore wind along the immediate nearshore waters. By Friday, a frontal system pushes into the region, bringing returning chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas respond ahead of this feature by approaching cautionary levels out of the southwest. Northerly breezes at 15 to 20 knots then arrive in the front's wake on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any of the storms that happen to develop. South to southwesterly transport winds are expected the next several days with mixing heights between 4,500 to 5,500 feet. This will lead to high dispersions the next couple of days, primarily across southeast Alabama today and across the rest of the region through the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Minimal rainfall expected over the next few days outside of localized pockets from isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. The next chance for greater coverage of meaningful rain is Friday when a frontal system pushes through the region. The latest Day 5 QPF from WPC generally paints a half inch or less across the Tri-State area, but higher amounts in the 1-2 inch range are focused over Central MS/AL/GA. These values may slide southward in subsequent forecasts.

In terms of rivers, Aucilla - Lamont, St Marks Newport, and a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue to trend downward. There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 90 67 89 69 / 20 10 10 0 Panama City 84 71 84 72 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 89 68 89 70 / 20 10 20 0 Albany 89 66 91 69 / 20 20 10 0 Valdosta 90 67 91 68 / 30 20 10 0 Cross City 87 66 89 67 / 40 10 10 0 Apalachicola 81 72 81 73 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Mon -- 04:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
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Panama City Beach
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Mon -- 12:44 AM CDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
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Mon -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:19 PM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
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Mon -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
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Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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