Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 4:59 AM   Moonset 6:19 PM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 957 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Overnight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 957 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through Thursday. A frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will lead to stronger offshore winds of 15 to 20 knots.

FXUS64 KLIX 060449 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1149 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave ridge axis will remain over the area through Tuesday night, and this will help suppress most convective activity even as a series of weak shortwave features rides over the top of the ridge axis and through the Lower Mississippi Valley. At most, an isolated to widely scattered shower or storm could develop during peak heating hours tomorrow afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon, and the most likely area for development will be across Southwest Mississippi and portions of Louisiana to the north of I-12. Any convection will remain weak and low-topped as a fairly strong capping inversion in the mid-levels remains in place. Any convection will quickly dissipate after sunset with dry conditions expected by the early evening hours both tonight, tomorrow night, and Tuesday night. The combination of lighter boundary layer flow and ample low level moisture will support some patchy fog and low stratus development each night. The fog and stratus will quickly clear by mid-morning as temperatures warm. Have stuck with NBM deterministic values for temperatures through Tuesday night with readings rising into the mid to upper 80s and lows dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The deep layer shortwave ridge axis will continue to induce strong subsidence across the area on Wednesday. This will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion, and have no mention of rain in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will also warm beneath the highly subsident airmass with readings projected to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A few locations could approach record high levels. Even warmer temperaturesare expected on Thursday as highs climb into the low to mid 90s over inland areas. These high temperatures will likely break records and those who are most vulnerable to heat should limit outdoor activities on Thursday. These warm values on Thursday are being driven by both ample subsidence aloft and some compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front.

The cold front will move into the Thursday night, and some scattered convection will likely develop ahead of the front as it moves into a moist and unstable airmass in the low levels. Lapse rates will improve aloft as the influence of the ridge diminishes, and there could be a stronger storm or two as the front moves through. Otherwise, conditions do not look favorable for severe convection due to a lack of substantial shear. The front will clear the coast on Friday and a cooler and more stable high pressure system will advect into the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will fall back to more normal levels in the lower 80s on Friday, and could even cool to slightly below average by Saturday as the heart of the northern stream cold pool moves in.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of the high cloud cover is rapidly shifting eastward with a shortwave that will be entirely east of the area in the next few hours. Main question will be extent of low clouds/fog around sunrise. While MVFR ceilings are likely at pretty much all terminals around sunrise, IFR or lower ceilings will be likely briefly at KMCB/KASD/KHDC/KHUM and perhaps KBTR. Do expect quick improvement around 14-15z, to at least MVFR. Most or all terminals will experience VFR conditions during the afternoon hours. The local area looks to be between shortwaves during the daytime hours on Monday, so the threat of convective activity looks to be rather limited, if any occurs at all. Lower clouds will again return overnight Monday night.

MARINE
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Through Wednesday, the region will remain on the western periphery of a broad surface high. This will keep prevailing southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet in place. By Thursday, the approach of a cold front will result in a slightly tighter pressure gradient over the coastal waters, and this should push winds into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots. The front is expected to slip through the waters on Friday. Winds will shift to the north and remain elevated in exercise caution range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 86 69 87 / 10 40 20 20 BTR 70 87 72 89 / 10 40 10 10 ASD 71 86 72 88 / 10 20 10 10 MSY 73 85 74 87 / 20 20 10 10 GPT 73 84 74 85 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 71 84 72 84 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Gulfport
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Mon -- 01:51 AM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:00 AM CDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:10 PM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gulfport, Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi, Tide feet

Cat Island (West Point)
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Mon -- 04:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM CDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi, Tide feet

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