Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 12:57 AM   Moonset 11:10 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 300551 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1251 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

We have updated the forecast to add a mention of showers and thunderstorms through mid-evening across the coastal plains region.
We could see a strong storm or two over the next hour or so, with activity expected to weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the forecast.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet weather is expected this afternoon and evening outside of the potential for a stray thunderstorm across the far southeastern portion of the Coastal Plains as an outflow boundary from convection over the Gulf of Mexico continues to move inland. Any storm that fires in this environment will have the potential to become severe with current SBCAPE values around 4,000 J/kg and effective shear around 35-50 kts based on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Otherwise, we can expect low status and areas of patchy fog to redevelop overnight/early Tuesday morning. Closer to sunrise, we may start to see some patchy drizzle/light rain showers begin to develop across mainly southern portions of the area as well.

Tomorrow afternoon, there will once again be a low potential for an isolated storm or two to develop along the seabreeze and/or any lingering boundary from today's convection across southern portions of the Coastal Plains. There is a better chance for storms to fire along a dryline out in west Texas and along the SDB Mountains in Mexico. This activity will try to push west into our area through the evening hours, but more likely than not will struggle to do so before dissipating. Low clouds and patchy fog looks likely again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move over TX in westerly flow aloft during the first part of the long term period.
The first will combine with a dryline in the boundary layer and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night.
There may be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear to produce strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Large hail and isolated tornadoes are the main threat. Another upper disturbance will bring chances for convection Thursday afternoon and evening.
Friday a cold front will move through Central Texas and then through our CWA Friday night. This will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms, but it looks like it will be a weak boundary and chances are low. The front will stall in the region and another upper shortwave trough will move across Saturday making convection possible again. Another dryline could generate storms Sunday afternoon and evening. Weak ridging will bring dry weather Monday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

MVFR conditions are forecast to persist across KSAT and KSSF for the next several hours before IFR cigs show up around 10Z. For KAUS, there is a delay for MVFR cigs to develop, however, it is in the forecast to begin within the next few hours. VFR conditions return around 18Z for all area terminals. Southeast to south winds of 5 to 10 knots are forecast to prevail overnight and 8 to 12 knots during the day on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 86 71 83 72 / 10 10 50 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 70 83 70 / 10 10 50 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 71 85 72 / 10 10 40 50 Burnet Muni Airport 84 70 81 70 / 0 10 40 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 75 89 74 / 0 10 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 70 83 70 / 10 0 40 60 Hondo Muni Airport 88 70 85 70 / 0 10 40 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 70 84 70 / 10 10 50 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 71 83 73 / 20 0 50 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 71 84 72 / 10 10 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 87 73 85 72 / 10 10 50 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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