Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madisonville, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:23PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:16 PM CDT (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:22PMMoonset 8:48AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 940 Am Cdt Sat Oct 23 2021
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds near 5 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 940 Am Cdt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis..High pressure will shift to the east of the area today. A weak low pressure system will pass north of the waters on Sunday, and high pressure will then build back over the area on Monday and Tuesday. Another strong low pressure system will then impact the waters on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madisonville, LA
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location: 30.38, -90.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 231737 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1237 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

AVIATION (18Z TAF DISCUSSION). VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all of the terminals through tomorrow morning. There may be some very light fog development around sunrise tomorrow morning at MCB and HUM, but this development is highly conditional on the strength of the boundary layer wind and dewpoint depression. Given the uncertainty of fog, have only placed a period of MVFR visibility restrictions in a TEMPO group at these terminals around 12z. PG

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 936 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/

MORNING UPDATE . The fog and low stratus impacting areas around Houma and the River Parishes has started to erode as the boundary layer mixes out due to a combination of drier air mixing down from aloft and warming temperatures. Only adjustments were to lower the dewpoints, RH values, and apparent temperature across portions of coastal Mississippi and the Northshore through the morning hours based on observational data. Otherwise, the forecast is performing well this morning. PG

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 344 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/

SYNOPSIS .

Weak frontal boundary, or what is left of it, appears to be somewhere near the Louisiana coast. Temperatures and dew points are running 5-10 degrees lower this morning than 24 hours ago in many areas. Temperatures were near 60 across northeast portions of the area at 3 AM CDT, while some areas with direct marine influences, such as Boothville, were still in the mid 70s.

Upper ridging over the east side of the Rockies this morning with deep upper lows over eastern Canada and approaching the northwest US coast. The southern stream of the upper pattern is also a bit active, but not nearly with the magnitude of the northern stream. Satellite shows a shortwave in the southern stream over extreme south Texas and another over southern Arizona.

SHORT TERM (through Monday night) .

The south Texas shortwave is not expected to have much of an impact on today's weather, but it's passage on Sunday may have enough forcing to produce scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the afternoon. Best chance of this occurring would be to the west of Interstate 55.

Upper ridging then briefly builds into the area on Monday into Tuesday with dry weather in place.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through at least Monday. Not sure I see as much of a dropoff in high temperatures as the operational guidance would indicate. Forecast soundings only show 925 mb temperatures this afternoon dropping off 1C or so from Friday, when high temperatures in the mid and upper 80s were rather common. NBM guidance is on the high end of the envelope and looks to be very reasonable. Will trend overnight lows a bit lower than the NBM tonight, but not quite to the NAM numbers. Sunday's temperatures don't look to be much different than today's. Forecast soundings do show a bit of warming on Monday, back to about where things were on Friday afternoon. This would again put highs in the mid and upper 80s. Would note that high temperature records for Monday at most of our ASOS sites are right around 88 degrees. We're gonna be real close to that, and it wouldn't be an absolute shock to see one or two places touch 90 again. 35

LONG TERM (Tuesday and beyond) .

A mid/upper level ridge axis will slide east across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday as a potent shortwave trough moves across the Desert Southwest, Four Corners and central/southern Rockies. This will transition to a moist southwest flow aloft and southerly surface/low level winds across the central Gulf Coast region. Clouds and relative humidity will increase, however despite the moisture moving in, most areas should stay dry with a good amount of dry air in the mid levels blocking precipitation development. Temperatures will remain on the warm side.

The models have continued to gradually come into better agreement with the potent shortwave trough and low pressure system that is expected to move across the central/southern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there is one wild card in the mix. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a southern stream shortwave coming out of Mexico in advance of this shortwave. The GFS has been much more bullish with this shortwave producing an area of precipitation in advance of the Plains system Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with precipitable water values well in excess of 2 inches across portions of our region. As the upper level trough moves across the lower Mississippi Valley late Wednesday/Wednesday night, it may take on a slightly negative tilt with a closed mid level low and associated strong surface low. As a result, a strong low level jet will likely form over our region. Taking a look at Skew-T indices there is also going to be a good amount of shear, SRH values, and PWATS will be above the seasonal average. CAPE values are also showing to be in the moderate range. With the good environmental setup for strong storms the SPC Day 6 Convective Outlook from Friday put out a 15% chance of severe weather for Wednesday. If there's a significant change when the outlook comes out in the next hour or two (and we don't expect a change), we'll update this section of the discussion. The 00z GFS solution would favor heavy precipitation more than severe weather for Wednesday, while the ECMWF would favor the reverse. Some changes to the forecast are still to come as this system is still 5 days out and changes to the pattern may come.

After Wednesday model guidance seems to agree on a drying pattern into the late week. Temperatures will also see a noticeable cool down with high temps ranging in the mid to upper 70s Thursday down to the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures will also be falling to the upper 50s to mid 60s Wednesday night, 50s Thursday night and upper 40s to mid 50s Friday night. This brings most areas around or even below the seasonal average. 22/35

AVIATION (12z TAF package) .

Seeing a few reports of clouds between FL030-060 early this morning. Conditions don't appear to be quite as favorable for fog this morning as the past few mornings, but there is a threat. If it occurs, it'll likely be near or just after sunrise, and burning off by about 15z. IFR or lower conditions would be expected if fog develops. Locations that get the mid level clouds would be much less likely to see fog this morning.

Crossover temperatures would indicate Sunday morning around sunrise might be somewhat more favorable at lower levels, but it's not a slam dunk then, either. Cirrus ahead of the south Texas shortwave noted in the synopsis may arrive soon enough to retard the best radiating conditions for fog. 35

MARINE .

As onshore flow redevelops today, expect winds to increase across the open waters. We may need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines overnight tonight into Sunday across at least the western open waters as sustained winds get up to 15 to 18 knots or so. Day shift will make the final determination on the need for headlines. Conditions should then relax until the midweek weather system arrives. Would note that depending on which forecast scenario sets up (ECMWF or GFS or something else), there's a possibility that winds on Wednesday could show a significant change from what is currently in the forecast. Marine interests should keep attuned to the midweek forecast. 35

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 64 85 68 87 / 0 20 10 20 BTR 66 85 67 87 / 10 40 10 20 ASD 64 86 69 88 / 0 20 20 30 MSY 71 86 71 87 / 0 30 20 30 GPT 66 83 70 85 / 0 20 20 20 PQL 60 84 67 85 / 0 10 20 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 25 mi47 min SSE 2.9G8 84°F 77°F1014.7 hPa
CARL1 31 mi47 min 77°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi47 min 81°F 78°F1015.6 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 44 mi47 min ESE 12G14 79°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 44 mi47 min SE 8G9.9 76°F 75°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hammond, Hammond Municipal Airport, LA17 mi36 minSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F70°F70%1015.9 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA18 mi24 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F68°F61%1015.6 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA24 mi24 minSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F64°F53%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHDC

Wind History from HDC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N300NE3E3NE3000000E30E30E3E5SE4SE8SE11S7S7
1 day ago0E30000000000N3000NE3NE5NE600NE5N5NW4
2 days ago------------------------------------------NW6W3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:25 AM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:05 PM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:21 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:45 AM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:38 PM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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