Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:27 PM Moonrise 3:09 AM   Moonset 2:43 PM

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GMZ636 Expires:202405031515;;522150 Fzus54 Kmob 030211 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 911 pm cdt Thu may 2 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-031515- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 911 pm cdt Thu may 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. Areas of dense fog. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Friday night - South winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 911 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist into the weekend as surface high pressure continues to build across the area. Slightly higher winds will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 030508 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 108 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 929 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Increased cloud cover for the next few hours as a scattered mid/high deck is moving into the area. Overnight, fog is expected to develop mainly in the Florida panhandle from Tallahassee west to Walton County. Lows tonight will fall into the 60s.

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridging aloft will persist through the near term with high pressure building in at the surface. As a result, south- southwesterly flow will continue pushing moisture across the area with higher dewpoints likely along the Emerald Coast. Tonight, with ridging aloft, a warm inversion above the surface should persist resulting in some fog formation along the Emerald Coast pushing somewhat inland. Locally dense fog is possible with visibilities less than 1 mile in some spots. Overnight low temperatures will generally hover around the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow, isolated thunderstorms are possible along the FL Big Bend and SW GA as the seabreeze pushes inland in the afternoon hours.
Additionally, a remnant boundary propagating east from earlier convection over AL may enhance precipitation chances across our SW GA counties. PoPs will generally range from 15-30% across the area due to weaker forcing. Inverted-V soundings appear evident with DCAPE approaching 800J/kg, suggesting that a couple stronger gusts may be possible with these storms. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area in the afternoon.

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

No new changes to the forecast as a couple of shortwaves remain on track to pass over the SE this weekend. The first will occur on Saturday, which will allow for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop over the region. This will be our best chance for rain as Sunday's shortwave passes more to our north where the best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be in SW GA counties and across the eastern Big Bend. Severe weather isn't anticipated either day, but a few gusty winds and heavier showers will be possible.

After that, ensembles favor upper level ridging to take over.
However, to the west near the Continental Divide and Plains, a broad trough develops. This could flatten the ridge towards the southeast. At the surface, high pressure will influence the region. It may feel like summer with temperatures rising into the upper 80s and low 90s over the weekend, with low to mid 90s expected next week. Overnight lows become toasty, with the mid to upper 60s generally holding, though the low 70s are possible by midweek.


AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Fog and low stratus will be possible at most terminals this morning, but conditions should improve to VFR by mid to late morning. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but coverage is expected to be sparse and therefore confidence of impacts to any particular terminal are too low to include in the tafs for now. Another round of fog/low stratus will be possible late tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the weekend. There may be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and moist conditions will continue across the area as southerly flow persist over the next several days. With this, the seabreeze will push inland each afternoon with isolated thunderstorms forming. Gusty and erratic winds with lightning are possible near and within these storms. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase notably on Saturday, particularly for SW GA. Patchy to locally dense fog is possible each morning due to the warm and moist pattern, particularly for our FL counties. Notably high mixing heights will yield fair to generally good dispersions in the afternoon, though some areas could see locally elevated dispersions if the seabreeze is stronger than forecast.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Minor river flooding remains ongoing at Manatee Springs along the Suwannee with water levels expected to fall into action stage tonight or early tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, the following rivers are expected to remain in action stage over the next several days: the St. Marks at Newport, the lower Suwannee, and the Aucilla on Lamont. Outside of that, no new riverine flooding is expected.

In terms of rain fall, we could see up to around 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain along and east of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers. Areas west will be lighter and range around 0.0 to 0.25 inches of rain.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 90 68 88 67 / 30 10 50 10 Panama City 84 68 85 68 / 10 0 30 0 Dothan 90 67 87 66 / 20 10 50 10 Albany 90 67 87 66 / 30 30 70 20 Valdosta 90 68 86 66 / 20 20 60 20 Cross City 90 65 87 65 / 10 10 40 20 Apalachicola 80 69 80 69 / 0 0 20 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Thu -- 02:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:37 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 PM CDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

West Bay Creek
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Thu -- 02:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:49 AM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 PM CDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
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West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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