Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:23 PM Moonrise 11:21 PM   Moonset 8:19 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 957 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 957 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis - A strong southeasterly wind flow pattern will prevail over the marine area through Sunday with building seas. Southeasterly winds gradually diminish with subsiding seas during the early to middle part of the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KMOB 272334 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions should mainly prevail for the next 24 hours, although a brief period of MVFR ceilings will attempt to develop tomorrow morning just after sunrise for a few hours. Otherwise, breezy southeasterly winds of around 10-15 knots will continue through tonight, becoming gusty again tomorrow for the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds throughout the day tomorrow could gust up to 30 knots. /96

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

An upper level ridge will remain in place along the Southeastern Seaboard through the weekend as an upper low pivots across the central US. This pattern will result in a southwesterly flow aloft over the local area. Down at the surface, a tight pressure gradient has developed in response to a surface high pressure along the east coast/western Atlantic and an area of surface low pressure over the Plains. This pressure gradient has resulted in breezy southeasterly winds today with gusts up to 30-35 mph being reported at times. Winds are expected to ease slightly overnight with breezy conditions re-developing especially near to the coast on Sunday. Given the lack of appreciable forcing and deep layer moisture, conditions are expected to remain dry through most of the period. The exception to this will be on Sunday over parts of southeast Mississippi where weak isentropic ascent could lead to an isolated shower or storm. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate this potential so have maintained the 15-20% PoP forecast over southeast Mississippi for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect to see very similar conditions continue on Sunday with another decent cumulus field and passing mid/upper level clouds resulting in partly cloudy skies.

Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will result in deadly rip currents and increased surf heights along all area beaches through the weekend. Local lifeguards reported flying red and double red beach warning flags today, meaning that the Gulf Waters are closed to the public. The HIGH risk of rip currents remains in effect through the weekend and into early next week. A High Surf Advisory also remains in effect through Monday for large breaking waves of 4- 6 feet at all area beaches and possibly even up to 7 feet on Sunday for portions of the western Florida panhandle. /14

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

An upper ridge over the eastern CONUS deamplifies and shifts eastward into Monday followed by the base of an upper shortwave passing over the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday. An upper ridge rebuilds a bit over the Southeast midweek, with a second upper shortwave passing over the region late in the week. A surface ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the region will remain persistent, maintaining a slight southerly surface wind across the forecast area throughout the week. The highest precipitable H20 values should occur Monday afternoon and evening (1.5"-1.8") and from the mid/late part of the week. Best combination of moisture and decreased subsidence remains west of the forecast area Monday into Monday night, and with that, best chance of rain is expected to be along and west of the Alabama River. Rain chances shift east for Tuesday as the tongue of moisture shifts east. Guidance indicates enough instability with SBCapes rising into the 800-1200J/kg range along and west of the Alabama on Monday, and into the 1000-2000J/kg range on Tuesday to include a chance of thunderstorms eastward over the entire forecast area. Wind shear remains limited with the shifting of the surface ridge helping to keep wind shear low, so am expecting the chance of organized strong to severe storms to be low.

Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms, with subsidence from the eastern upper ridge remaining strong enough over the Southeast. High temperatures in the mid to at times upper 80s are expected over inland areas, around 80 along the coast.
Low temperatures are expected to range from around 60 over central Alabama to mid to upper 60s over portions of inland southeast Mississippi and along the coast. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine area through late Sunday night for southeasterly winds averaging between 15-25 kts and frequent gusts up to around 30 kt possible.
Seas are also expected to build up to 6-8 feet offshore during this time. Southeasterly winds gradually diminish with subsiding seas during the early to middle part of the upcoming week. /14

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 66 81 67 82 66 82 66 84 / 0 10 0 20 30 40 0 10 Pensacola 69 79 68 80 67 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 10 20 30 0 0 Destin 69 78 68 79 68 79 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 62 84 59 84 62 83 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 20 40 0 10 Waynesboro 62 84 62 84 62 83 63 86 / 0 20 0 50 50 40 0 20 Camden 63 82 59 84 62 83 61 86 / 0 10 0 20 40 40 0 10 Crestview 62 84 59 84 60 84 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650- 655-670-675.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Sat -- 01:03 AM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:20 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:47 PM CDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:21 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris
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Sat -- 02:34 AM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:20 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:51 PM CDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:22 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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