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FXUS64 KEWX 191838 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 138 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Morning cloud cover held on a bit longer than yesterday but still expecting highs today to reach into the 90-104 degree range across the area with the hotter temperatures expected along the Rio Grande.
Dewpoints along the Rio Grande remain in the lower 70s but should mix out a bit later today which could lead to some elevated fire weather conditions given southeast flow near 15 mph with slightly higher gusts. The short-term period will remain rain free and warm.
Highs tomorrow will be back into the 90-105 degree range. Slightly higher dewpoints in the Rio Grande will lead to less of a fire weather concern, but afternoon heat index values will approach 107- 110 degrees which is just below Heat Advisory criteria. Lows tonight will range from near 70 in the Hill Country to the upper 70s in the Rio Grande. For tomorrow night, with slightly higher dewpoints, expect low temperatures to be warmer, in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees. Can't rule out some patchy fog in the Coastal Plains tonight but not expecting widespread impacts there.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

On Tuesday afternoon, a 1-2 Sigma 500mb ridge will be centered just south of our region over northeastern Mexico. In combination with 700mb temperatures in the 12-16C range and strong surface heating under the associated thermal ridge, afternoon highs will easily top out in the 90s for all locations, with highs in the 100-105 range west of the San Antonio metro over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.

By early Wednesday, the ridge axis should slide east of our region, opening the door for mid to late week afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, especially over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. The dryline should have a role in convective activity each afternoon, sliding eastward each afternoon. With SBCAPE in the 2000- 3000 J/kg range, steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range, and 0-6km deep layer shear of 40-50 kts each afternoon, thunderstorms are possible if they can break through a moderately strong cap. A series of shortwaves may help to spark these storms despite the strong capping inversion each afternoon, but it will be highly dependent on the timing of said shortwaves. Storms that do develop could quickly turn severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards Wednesday afternoon/evening through Friday afternoon/evening. The heat is expected to continue each day despite the increased rain chances, with widespread highs in the 90s to around 105 along the Rio Grande. While record highs are unlikely at AUS, ATT, and SAT, Del Rio has a good shot a breaking record highs most days through the extended forecast.

Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be very hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s east and in the 100-108 range out west. Factoring in heat indices in the 108-115 range and heat advisory products are looking increasingly likely for most locations outside of the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau by late week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

MVFR status continues to mix out across the TAF sites at the present time and will begin the 18z TAFs with VFR being mentioned. Some breezy winds can be expected at times during the afternoon periods but speeds should generally be less than 20 knots. Another round of MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings can be expected late tonight into tomorrow morning once again as low-level flow continues to induce nocturnal stratus. VFR should return by 17z tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 72 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 105 80 105 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 90 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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