Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rockdale, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:33 PM CDT (18:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:09PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rockdale, TX
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location: 30.67, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 231602 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1102 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/

Quiet post-frontal weather will continue, but the cool and dry airmass will start to undergo the modification process in the coming days. The surface ridge is currently centered over East Texas and will continue to slide east. Southerly flow will slowly advect warm and moist air back into the region. Today, however, dry air and sunny skies will prevail. An upper ridge to our west will flatten this afternoon and allow some cirrus to move into the region. Another night of strong radiational cooling should allow overnight lows to dip into the 50s with the coldest spots across Northeast Texas. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow under partly cloudy skies with passing mid to upper level clouds.

Bonnette

LONG TERM. /Issued 308 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021/ /This Weekend Through Middle Of Next Week/

The early extended periods of Friday through the weekend look rain-free with low humidity and temperatures warming back up to above normal, though not near as hot as last week before our first early Fall cold front. As discussed the past few days, the cool and very dry cP airmass we've been enjoying now for the past 24-36 hours will begin to modify and warm. Southerly winds at the surface, albeit not overly strong, return with the eastward departure of the broad surface ridge east of the area. Meanwhile, a low amplitude shortwave ridge aloft evolves across the state in response to the slow-exiting, full-latitudinal longwave trough across the Eastern CONUS lifting northeast across New England. Further west across the southern latitudes a broad shortwave trough or upper low looks to detach from the current deep trough in a Rex-block fashion in advance a deep upper trough entering the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Resulting clear skies and optimum radiational cooling conditions each night will allow for cool mornings thanks to the continued dry low-level airmass in place. Any moisture return from the Western Gulf by the weekend will be quite modified, as current IR satellite imagery, surface obs, and buoy data all show our previous cold front continuing it's southward surge toward the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Peninsula. Lows primarily in the 50s Friday morning will only increase between 55 and 65 degrees for our weekend mornings. Dry air readily heats more efficiently than moist air with a 25 to 30 degree diurnal range expected over the weekend and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s thanks to plentiful sunshine and insolation. Despite the continued dry conditions and slowly increasing drought conditions for western North and Central Texas, relatively weak low-level wind fields and surface pressures will help to keep fire weather conditions low, though areas along and west of US-281 may see breezier conditions that will need to be monitored Sunday into early next week.

The cut off and broad upper low to our west will finally start slowly migrating east across AZ/NM and toward the Southern High Plains and West TX early next week within the larger longwave ridge across the Front Range and Plains. The European Ensemble or EPS shows this system to be more closed off and organized versus the more open trough versions of the GFS (GEFS) and Canadian (GEPS) ensembles. As this occurs, low-level WAA and associated moisture recovery early next week will gradually improve, especially across areas south of I-20 as Western Gulf SSTs and dew points slowly re-charge.

Regardless, we'll see increasing southerly winds, moisture return, and cloud cover with convective chances returning to the area, especially across Central TX. Synoptic forcing features such as warm/cold fronts will be absent with only conditionally unstable mid levels and better SBCAPE/MLCAPE being mostly displaced to our SSE across S-Central/SE TX. The increasing synoptic-scale forcing and lessening subsidence will work with decent insolation to bring 20%-40 rain chances back to our CWA by Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Better chances will reside with the better moisture and instability across Central TX. Where I advertise higher PoPs next Tuesday/Wednesday, I will have the main prevailing weather be in the form of showers with isolated thunderstorms. It's still a ways out and there remains plenty of uncertainty on how both synoptic features and our thermodynamic environment evolve, so I didn't stray from the NBM much both on PoPs and for temperatures beyond Monday. The increase in moisture and cloud cover will also eventually help keep temperatures closer to normals for late September (lows: mid-upper 60s, highs: mid-upper 80s) moving into the middle of next week with Monday the breeziest & warmest day of the bunch.

05/Marty

AVIATION. /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Light southeast winds will prevail through the valid TAF period with a few upper level cirrus moving into the area tonight and tomorrow.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 59 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 87 56 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 81 54 84 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 84 54 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 83 55 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 85 62 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 83 55 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 84 56 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 85 54 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 86 53 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caldwell, Caldwell Municipal Airport, TX19 mi58 minNE 610.00 miFair80°F39°F23%1020.3 hPa
Hearne, Hearne Municipal Airport, TX24 mi38 minS 410.00 miFair84°F42°F22%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRWV

Wind History from RWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12
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N4N3N3NW5N3N3N4N4N3N4N4N4N3CalmE3SE5CalmW3SE5
1 day agoN4NW5N8N18
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2 days agoS7S7S9S8S8SE7SE7SE8S7S6S9S7S4S7S9SW7S4S3S4SW8
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SW5W4NE3N7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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