Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 3:39 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 041947 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 247 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A dryline is located in west Texas with a surface front draped across the northern portion of the state just south of the panhandle. South Central Texas continues to stay in the warm, humid airmass ahead of these features with thick cloud cover and humid conditions continuing today. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon around peak heating, although the higher confidence for precipitation in the area arrives this evening through Sunday morning.

Thunderstorms will likely develop west of the area late this afternoon along the front and the dryline extending over the higher terrain in Mexico. Much like previous nights, the question is whether the storms west of the Rio Grande will make it across the river into our far western reaches. Of higher confidence are the storms in west Texas becoming a complex which will will shift eastward overnight into Sunday aided by a passing shortwave trough.
This complex of storms may become a line with the leading edge moving across the Hill Country or southern Edwards Plateau a little before midnight. This complex will likely move through portions of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into Sunday morning. There is the potential for storms to be severe tonight, especially in the far west where initial development is anticipated. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, or an isolated tornado will all be possible. As storms progress into a line, damaging winds may become the primary hazard later in the night. SPC has continued the Level 3 of 5 Risk across far northwestern Val Verde County, with a Level 2 of 5 risk across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor. In addition to this threat, heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding is also a concern. Much of where the heaviest rain is expected depends on the track of the line of storms this evening, but the best potential looks to be in the far northeastern portion of the area. A Flood Watch has been issued for Llano, Burnet, Williamson, and Lee Counties through Sunday afternoon based on this potential and the potential for some additional rain on Sunday.

Precipitation chances continue through Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening, although there is much more uncertainty in exact details after any morning storms. It is likely some kind of outflow boundary will remain in the area and with destabilization in the afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop along this feature.
Storms would once again have the potential to become severe with large hail the initial threat. Upscale growth may occur as some models do depict a secondary line of storms moving across the area in the afternoon hours. Rain and thunderstorm chances finally decrease Sunday night as the upper level shortwave moves into the southeastern US.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The day on Monday starts relatively dry with cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s for the morning commute.
As the day progresses, the clouds are forecast to break for partly cloudy skies with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s most locations and low 90s along the Rio Grande. The active dry-line is likely lingering between west Texas and Val Verde County during the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop across the Hill Country in the afternoon, otherwise, dry and warm for the most part.

A dry and warm pattern is in store from Tuesday into Thursday with high temperatures getting warmer each day. Thursday is forecast to be the warmest day of this week with temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains to the 100-104 range along the Rio Grande.

A cold front is forecast to push across the local area late Thursday night into Friday and brings a slight chance for showers and storms mainly on Friday. Friday's highs will be much cooler with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the northern part of South Central Texas and low 90s along the Rio Grande.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR to local IFR cloud cover continues to linger over much of South Central Texas. Expect ceilings to lift to VFR by 20-21Z everywhere except over the Hill Country where MVFR conditions look to remain.
Low ceilings will redevelop around 03-04Z tonight, dropping as low as IFR to LIFR early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening, moving across much of the area through Sunday morning. Believe any activity early this evening will stay west of DRT, and have introduced PROB30 groups to sites for the best timing as a complex or line or storms moves across the area later in the night. Showers and thunderstorms may linger behind this initial line of storms through the day Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 69 82 71 86 / 80 60 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 82 71 86 / 80 60 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 83 71 88 / 70 60 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 67 79 69 84 / 90 60 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 85 72 95 / 60 50 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 80 70 84 / 80 60 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 68 82 70 87 / 80 50 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 82 71 86 / 70 60 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 82 72 86 / 60 60 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 82 72 86 / 70 50 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 71 83 72 88 / 60 50 20 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Burnet-Lee-Llano- Williamson.

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