Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:09PM Sunday January 16, 2022 3:48 AM CST (09:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:57PMMoonset 6:51AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ636 Expires:202201161515;;431988 Fzus54 Kmob 160309 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 909 Pm Cst Sat Jan 15 2022 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz635-636-161515- Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 909 Pm Cst Sat Jan 15 2022
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west around 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers early in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 909 Pm Cst Sat Jan 15 2022
Synopsis..Light to moderate will switch to a strong to very strong westerly flow this evening as a strong cold front moves through. A strong to very strong northwesterly flow follows for Sunday which gradually diminishes through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 160931 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 431 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

A large area of showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to move across the CWA this morning ahead of a cold front. The 925mb winds have been increasing and will continue to do so for the next few hours particularly across the eastern portion of the region. This increase has been reflected in some of the stronger measured wind reports that have been observed, even outside areas of stronger convection. Mesoanalysis shows 40-45kt of low level shear across the Big Bend region, however, instability has been confined to the marine area and the immediate coast and thus kept the stronger storms from holding together and pushing further inland. There have been numerous circulations noted over the marine area overnight and one moved across the Dog Island area with a TDS. While we continue to see limited instability this morning near the coast, we still will have the potential for damaging winds and a tornado or two through about sunrise.

While the cold front moves through this morning, the upper level low associated with the system will lift from the Mid-South towards the southern Apalachians by tonight. With this, even as the main area of precipitation moves east this morning, we'll keep low end precipitation chances in the forecast through the day (mainly 20- 30%). Cooler air will also filter into the region this morning and there will be a brief period of time, mainly during the morning hours, that a few snow flurries will be possible across portions of southeast Alabama and the northwest portions of southwest Georgia. With temperatures on the warmer side for snow and above freezing, no accumulation is expected. Highs today will be well below average, with values ranging from the low to mid 40s across parts of southeast Alabama to the lower 60s across the southeast Big Bend. With the strong winds today, temperatures may actually feel as though they are in the upper 20s across portions of southeast Alabama.

Strong winds will continue through the day. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph today and into the first half of tonight. Extended the Wind Advisory into tonight given the longer linger elevated winds. These winds, especially when paired with the wet soils from the rain this morning, could bring down a few limbs or trees, resulting in power outages.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday].

A dry period of weather is on tap early next week as high pressure gradually builds into the tri-state region. Breezy northwest winds are expected on Monday with gusts around 20 mph expected given the deep mixed layer. After morning lows in the 30s, temperatures will rebound to highs in the 50s. With the high overhead Monday Night, low temperature potential will be maximized, w/ upper 20s to lower 30s regionwide. Also expect areas of frost Tuesday morning. Highs moderate a few degrees on Tuesday into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday].

An active period of weather gets underway from late Wednesday and continues into next weekend, with two storms systems on the horizon.

A dry day is on tap for Wed, with increasing clouds in advance of the first system. This system is a progressive, southern stream shortwave, with a lack of moist and unstable air return from the gulf. In fact, Precipitable Water values only max out around 1.2 inches with basically NIL CAPE per ensembles. Expect rain showers Wed Night into Thu with PoPs around 50 percent. Highs on both Wed and Thu will top out in the 60s.

This system will push a cold front through the region on Thu with much cooler air in its wake. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s between Fri and Sun. Meanwhile, low temperatures will be in the 30s. There is considerable model spread with respect to low pressure developing along this front, as it stalls just to our south Fri into Sat. Looking at the operational runs, the Euro/ Canadian have been much wetter compared to the GFS. It appears the GFS is an outlier, as its ensemble has been consistently wetter.

With a weak wave developing along the front just southeast of the tri-state region, we will have to watch the thermal profiles carefully Friday night if the wetter solution verifies, given the cold air mass in place to the north. While the forecast is for rain showers, we cannot rule out some wet snow flakes mixing over portion of Southeast AL and Southwest GA. This is day 6 of the forecast, so confidence is low. Stay tuned for further details!

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Monday]

Showers continue to move across the TAF sites this morning with isolated thunderstorms. The best chance of TSRA over the next hour or two will be at TLH. In addition to the precipitation, winds will be increasing tonight and remain elevated through the forecast. Gusts in excess of 30kts are possible even outside of the precipitation. While the IFR to MVFR conditions may improve briefly today, lower cigs are expected again later this afternoon.

MARINE.

A strong low pressure system sweeps a vigorous cold front through the waters this morning with widespread and frequent gale force wind gusts through early tonight, along with seas in the 11 to 16 foot range just offshore. While winds will gradually decrease early tonight, seas will remain at advisory levels for small craft through Monday. As high pressure settles over the waters, more tranquil winds and seas are expected to return Tuesday through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER.

A cold front will push across the region this morning and the area has received 1-5 inches of rain as precipitation ahead of the front moved through. While RH values remain elevated, winds will be very gusty today with high dispersion values expected.

HYDROLOGY.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have pushed across the region overnight. As of 3:30am, rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches had been observed with isolated areas up to around 5 inches. These high amounts warranted a Flood Advisory for portions of the Big Bend. With the storms moving eastward, at this point the main area to watch will be across the southeast Big Bend region. The amounts that have fallen so far are enough to push a few rivers to near minor flood, including portions of the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, and Apalachicola at Blountstown.

With the strong winds, water levels have been increasing along the coast in Apalachee Bay, particularly across the northern and western portion. Shell Point in Wakulla County already measured a water level of 3 ft MHHW. We are headed towards low tide at St. Marks (7:42 AM ET) and at Apalachicola (9:53 AM ET) and while high tide will occur again at these locations later this afternoon and evening, water levels aren't expected to be quite as high at Apalachicola as the winds shift more towards the west. With this shift though, water levels are expected to be higher across the eastern portions of Apalachee Bay this afternoon. The Apalachee Bay coastline from Franklin to Dixie County remains in a Coastal Flood Warning this evening with water levels of 2 to 4 feet above normally dry ground expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 55 36 59 32 60 / 30 10 0 0 0 Panama City 52 40 58 34 59 / 30 10 0 0 0 Dothan 44 34 55 30 57 / 30 10 0 0 0 Albany 51 34 56 29 57 / 50 20 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 36 58 30 58 / 70 10 0 0 0 Cross City 62 40 60 32 61 / 70 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 56 41 58 35 58 / 30 10 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton- South Walton-Washington.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for South Walton.

High Surf Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

High Surf Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien- Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early- Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman- Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL . Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston.

GM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . Fieux SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . LF AVIATION . Fieux MARINE . LF FIRE WEATHER . Fieux HYDROLOGY . KGG/Fieux


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi49 min W 33G40 55°F 62°F1003.6 hPa (+0.4)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi49 min W 24G32 60°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi49 min W 14G21 43°F 61°F1006.1 hPa (+2.3)
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 85 mi49 min W 8.9G15 60°F 60°F1003.3 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for K1J0

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:50 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:47 AM CST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:18 PM CST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:02 AM CST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:49 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:58 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:59 PM CST     1.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet
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