Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Burnet, TX

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:21PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 10:43 AM CDT (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 1:22PM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burnet, TX
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location: 30.79, -98.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 281126 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

AVIATION. /12Z TAFS/ Earlier issued low cloud trends were generally on track with mainly MVFR cigs, but some IFR cigs loom to the south over the Coastal Prairies, and AUS introduced a low cig at just 1100 feet. Thus will continue the general trend of about 2-3 hours of IFR cigs to start off the day along I-35, but maybe cut back on the MVFR cigs altogether but show a SCT hint 13Z at DRT where no clouds at all are currently in the vcnty as of 1120Z. In monitoring convective trends notables among the post 00Z runs include the 06Z NAM which delayed the onset of precip and the early part of the 06Z Tech WRF which is right on time with the 00Z version. Thus will keep with the Tech WRF timing which reflects what is in our 06Z TAFS. With that said, will show a slightly faster improvement of conditions in the wake of the storm complex with maybe a chance at some VFR skies for all areas by 12Z Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday) . Early this AM, a large and mostly cut-off upper low is slowly ejecting northeast across the NM/CO border early this morning as another upper trough, currently moving into the Nrn CA coast, is acting as the kicker. The lead disturbance has carved out a broadly unstable SW flow aloft over Nrn Mexico into West/SW TX. A few weak elevated echoes have been drifting across parts of South TX, but only to suggest maybe some light virga in mid level clouds. Pwat values began the night as low as 1.1 inches with some areas along the Rio Grande moistening up to 1.8. The moisture is increasing rather quickly, and by daybreak there should be a few showers forming over our counties adjacent to the Coastal Bend/Crossroads region. Mid level winds out of the WSW will minimize the deepening of moisture over most areas through most of today as they maintain some dry air advection off the higher terrain in Mexico. This plus a lack of surface features to promote convection should keep convective activity at a minimum through around 18Z. Models also depict enough elevated dry air to suggest good insolation to where afternoon highs might actually be warmer than those of Monday. This should allow convective temps to be reached over the higher terrain to the west with near storm environments containing CAPE values to near 2000 J/Kg and about 30 knots of shear. This brings the western counties into a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather with cell mergers expected in the evening to carry over the isolated severe threat to as far east as the I-35 corridor by late tonight.

As the storms become more congealed into a developing complex after midnight, the severe potential should diminish and be replaced with the threat for a relatively slow moving MCS and the typical 1-3 inch threat for heavy rainfall that would come with an MCS. As discussed in WPC's Excessive Rainfall outlook the fairly light steering flow could lead to backbuilding cells along the complex of which a training pattern could end up producing higher totals in excess of 4 inches. The antecedent conditions over the region should be dry enough such that most areas can take a quick 2-3 inches of rain and see only a minor response in run-off. Thus will not concern ourselves with a flash flood threat in the short term, but will continue to message locally heavy rainfall in the HWO. In looking at a consensus of the model QPF amounts going into day2, the majority suggest that the MCS will either pull the heaviest rains south of I- 10 or east of I-35 or both. This moves the heaviest rainfall projections for daytime Wednesday into the Coastal Prairies and or Rio Grande Plains, where a dry environment could handle 3 or 4 inches before a significant flood were to develop. Again this would not suggest anything different in scale than what the Day 1 risk for excessive rainfall which we think would be mainly for areas along and west of the I-35 corridor. At the conclusion of the precip event in the short term, the hand-off to the long term presents continued rain chances, but in all likelihood a temporary respite late Wednesday as the primary lifting processes from the lead storm system pull northeast. With an MCS expected to start off Wednesday morning and a fair amount of morning clouds and wet soils, the afternoon high for Wednesday should be revert back a few degrees off today's projected highs over most of the area.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday) . An upper level trough is over the Four Corners region on Thursday, then moves across the Rockies into the High Plains on Friday. Upward forcing of an unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.5 to 2 inches will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday.

The next round of more significant showers and thunderstorms occurs late Thursday into Friday when a cold front approaches our area as with an upper level jet over our area. Upward forcing strengthens leading to more numerous showers and thunderstorms. An analysis of convective parameters and forecast soundings shows locally heavy rains will be the main threat. There is a potential for training of cells to enhance rainfall amounts. Soils will become more saturated from these rains and those previous to this time frame resulting in a faster runoff, possibly leading to flooding. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are also possible with the stronger storms.

Showers and thunderstorms remain scattered to numerous on Saturday as the upper level trough moves across the Plains and the front sags into our area. The threat of locally heavy rains continues as the airmass remains unseasonably moist.

Although the weakening upper level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday, general troughiness remains over the Plains and near the West Coast through Monday. Although moisture levels decrease, they are sufficient and combined with heating to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

There is a potential for a some spots to get rainfall totals of a few inches Thursday through Sunday. However, due to its convective nature, rainfall amounts will be quite variable day to day and total across South Central Texas and the Hill Country. Expect the forecast to continue to be fined tuned over the next several days. Temperatures will average slightly below seasonal normals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Austin Camp Mabry 94 73 89 71 88 / 30 60 70 40 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 71 88 71 88 / 30 60 70 40 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 94 71 89 71 89 / 30 60 70 40 80 Burnet Muni Airport 91 70 87 71 86 / 30 60 70 30 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 71 94 73 91 / 60 40 20 30 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 70 89 70 88 / 30 60 80 40 80 Hondo Muni Airport 94 70 90 71 89 / 30 60 50 40 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 70 89 70 88 / 30 70 70 40 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 73 88 73 89 / 30 70 70 50 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 72 89 73 87 / 30 60 60 40 80 Stinson Muni Airport 95 74 90 74 90 / 30 70 60 40 80

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Short-Term/Aviation . Oaks Long-Term . 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX4 mi51 minSSW 610.00 miFair79°F70°F74%1012.5 hPa
Horseshoe Bay Resort Airpark, TX19 mi49 minSSW 510.00 miFair83°F69°F65%1013.5 hPa
Llano, Llano Municipal Airport, TX20 mi49 minS 510.00 miFair82°F70°F66%1012.9 hPa
Lampasas, Lampasas Airport, TX22 mi69 minS 310.00 miFair79°F68°F71%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBMQ

Wind History from BMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S6S434SE4E5S8S8SE4S4CalmS43S4S4S4S3S4CalmS3S3S5S6
1 day ago5S8S7S4SE9
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2 days agoS5--3Calm----E6E6E4SE3CalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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