Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 1:44 AM   Moonset 12:16 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 010523 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1223 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The upper level flow over TX this afternoon is nearly zonal with a slight anticyclonic curvature. The low level flow is from the southeast. A warm, moist airmass remains in place over our CWA with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s. Low level flow will continue from the southeast tonight resulting in another warm night. Lows will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Skies will become mostly cloudy and patchy fog will develop over the eastern half of the area. Patchy drizzle The upper flow will turn southwesterly tonight leading to a more active pattern. Initially, we may see convection in the southeasterly flow off the Gulf with showers and thunderstorms developing over the Coastal Plains and spreading into the I-35 Corridor during the afternoon. Then late afternoon and early evening a dryline will approach our western area and will be likely to generate additional storms. These storms will move off the dryline toward the east. There may be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear for strong to severe storms. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat. SPC has included most of our CWA in the Marginal risk for Wednesday.
Convection should continue into the overnight period Wednesday/Thursday while moving toward the east. The best chances for convection will be across our northern area. There will also be sufficient deep moisture to produce locally heavy rain across this area.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Our active stretch of weather is expected to continue through the late week period as southwesterly mid-level flow continues, with several shortwave troughs rippling through the long wave flow through the end of the week. Warm, muggy, and let's call it what it is, disgusting mornings will continue as gulf moisture remains in play through the late week period. Recent wetting rains have added moisture to the soil and will contribute to the elevated humidity as well.

At this juncture, Friday evening and night looks like our best chance at storms, some of which could be strong. The primary hazards would be large hail and damaging winds, in addition to locally heavy rainfall. For now, PoPs are in the 20-30% range but that may increase if confidence in this scenario increases as higher res guidance gets into the window/timeframe of this potential event.

Beyond Friday, things start to trend drier and hotter, as the storm track starts to shift further north of our CWA Despite continued southwesterly flow aloft, a dryline will start to sharpen up and push eastward each afternoon Monday-Tuesday, along with westerly downsloping flow from the surface to about 700mb each day. This would result in compressional warming over much of the area as highs surge into the 90s region wide, and even some triple digits over the Rio Grande Plains.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR CIGs are currently developing over the area. They will fall to IFR in the next few hours. CIGs slowly rise on Wednesday to MVFR in the morning and VFR in the afternoon. SHRA/TSRA will develop in the afternoon and have maintained PROB30s. The SHRA/TSRA should continue during the evening into the overnight hours and have introduced PROBs for then. The SHRA/TSRA will probably disrupt the low CIGs Wednesday night, however went with MVFR prevailing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 72 85 72 86 / 60 50 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 84 71 85 / 50 50 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 86 72 87 / 50 40 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 70 84 70 84 / 70 40 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 95 75 95 / 20 10 0 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 84 70 84 / 60 50 30 20 Hondo Muni Airport 70 85 70 89 / 50 30 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 85 70 86 / 50 40 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 84 73 85 / 40 40 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 85 72 87 / 50 40 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 73 86 73 88 / 40 40 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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