Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:12 AM   Moonset 4:58 PM

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FXUS64 KSJT 051857 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 157 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mainly a dry forecast the next 24 hours. Still could see a few showers and storms develop along the I-10 corridor late this afternoon but the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should remain south of the area. Instability is rather weak due to considerable cloud cover, so the threat for strong/severe storms is low. Will maintain low POPs south of a Brady to Ozona line this afternoon. May see some patchy fog develop over southeast sections late tonight and early Monday morning, and keep some patchy fog in the forecast over this area. Temperatures will be mild tonight, due to plenty of stratus overnight into Monday morning, with lows in the 60s.

On Monday, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Rockies and into the central Plains by Monday evening. A dryline will mix east and extend from northwest Oklahoma, south across southwest Oklahoma and into central potions of our forecast area by late afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected east of the dryline late Monday afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat for significant severe weather across Oklahoma into Kansas. Upper level support will be much weaker farther south into the Big Country, but cannot rule out a storm or two. Will keep POPs at 20 percent across far northeast portions of the Big Country for now. Expect warmer temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

An upper low will sit to our north for the first part of the week, keeping us in near zonal flow aloft. These winds will bring in drier air at upper levels and clearer skies. The clearer skies will allow for increased solar heating. This combined with west/southwest winds at the surface will support warmer temperatures for the first half of the work week. A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures for the northern half of the area on Thursday and cooler temperatures for the whole area for Friday through the weekend. Right now, the front looks mostly dry for our area, with the exception of our southeastern counties where higher moisture could help rain chances. Precipitation chances rise slightly for the weekend, due to the return of southeasterly flow, increased moisture, and a possible disturbance or two in the flow aloft behind the upper level trough, but significant, widespread rainfall is not expected.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A combination of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist across the area through evening, with MVFR/IFR ceilings areawide after 06Z Monday. IFR ceilings early Monday should be confined to the southern terminals, with ceilings lifting to MVFR by late morning. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop near KJCT late this afternoon and will include VCTS for a few hours this forecast cycle. Expect winds to remain mainly light the next 24 hours, but could see some gusts around 18 kts at KSJT and KABI towards the end of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 66 88 60 89 / 10 10 0 0 San Angelo 66 91 63 93 / 10 10 0 0 Junction 68 88 68 94 / 20 10 0 0 Brownwood 66 84 64 88 / 10 20 0 0 Sweetwater 66 90 59 89 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 67 89 64 91 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 67 83 67 89 / 10 20 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,