Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 12:22 AM   Moonset 10:13 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 935 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 935 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - Winds gradually diminishing over the marine area, but a moderate southeasterly flow will continue over offshore gulf waters through tonight. A lighter onshore flow will then persist over the marine area through most of the remainder of the week. Seas subside somewhat Tuesday through Tuesday night and remain low through the remainder of the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 291158 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mostly MVFR to VFR ceilings today, but some localized areas dropping to IFR at times this afternoon as isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms move into the region from the west. After a break in any pcpn this evening, showers and storms will again be possible overnight (especially after 30/06z) when MVFR and localized IFR conditions will again be possible. Surface winds primarily south to southeasterly through the period, gusty at times today. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 442 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

We will finally be looking at a chance for rain today and tonight, as as upper level ridging slides eastward and out over the western Atlantic. At the same time, a couple of upper level shortwaves will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley region and across our area.
The remnants of a MCS that is moving east-southeast across LA early this morning will move into our area from the west this afternoon in association with the first shortwave, but will likely be dissipating as it does so. Even as it dissipates, still looking at about a 40-60 percent PoP over the western half of our forecast area (especially for our MS zones) by late this afternoon, where scattered to locally numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. There could be a break in the showers and storms this evening, but coverages will likely increase again overnight (especially after midnight) in association with the second shortwave that is expected to move east across the area when we will again be looking at about a 40-60 percent PoP across the area.

There are still some discrepancies in the models in both how much the current MCS remnants hold together as they move into the area this afternoon, and especially as to the coverage of the possible overnight into Tuesday activity. MLCAPE values could still increase up to 500-1000 J/KG, locally 1500 J/KG this afternoon across southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama this afternoon, which will be sufficient to support thunderstorms. However, low level and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly impressive so the overall severe threat remains marginal, and mainly over our MS zones at this time, per the Marginal Risk from SPC. If the convective line is able to maintain itself tomorrow afternoon, there could be a strong or perhaps severe storm tomorrow afternoon capable of producing damaging wind gusts mainly over our southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama counties, but confidence in this potential remains low at this time. Some guidance indicates a slightly more unstable airmass over the region late tonight into early Tuesday morning, and some slightly increased shear as well, so if storms do redevelop overnight into Tuesday with the passage of the second shortwave, there could be a minimal severe risk (mainly strong winds) then as well. Will maintain about a 40 percent Pop across the area during the day on Tuesday.

Highs both today and Tuesday will mainly in the low 80s (with a few mid 80s over interior MS zones on Tuesday). Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s inland to the mid and upper 60s closer to and along the coast (maybe a few lower 70s on the barrier islands).

Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in deadly rip currents and increased surf heights along all area beaches through the early part of the week. The HIGH risk of rip currents remains in effect through late Tuesday night, and a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through early this evening as surf in the 3-5 foot range continues. DS/12

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

In the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is well west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into the weekend. Shortwave troughs pass Friday into Friday night, then again Sunday. The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs to northwest and northern portions of the forecast area with each passing trough, along with limiting rain chances to isolated to low end scattered. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep temperatures above to well above seasonal norms through the period.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s well inland with around 80 near and along the coast are expected. Low temperatures are expected to range from around 60 to the low 60s north of Highway 84 to mid 60s/upper 60s closer to and along the coast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Winds gradually diminishing over the marine area, but a moderate southeasterly flow will continue through tonight. A lighter onshore flow will then persist through most of the remainder of the week.
Winds and seas remain at SCEC levels today over most of the marine area, and offshore over the Gulf zones into tonight, with winds of 15 to 20 knots and with seas still up to around 6 feet at times.
These conditions could be hazardous for small craft. Seas subside somewhat Tuesday through Tuesday night and remain in the 2 to 3 foot range through the remainder of the week. DS/12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 80 67 84 64 85 65 86 66 / 40 60 40 0 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 69 81 65 82 66 82 68 / 20 40 40 0 10 0 0 0 Destin 77 70 79 68 82 68 82 69 / 0 20 40 0 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 83 64 84 60 88 61 90 62 / 30 50 50 0 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 81 62 84 60 87 62 88 63 / 60 70 30 0 20 0 10 10 Camden 83 63 82 60 86 60 88 63 / 40 60 40 0 10 0 10 0 Crestview 83 63 84 60 89 61 90 62 / 10 30 40 0 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Milton
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Mon -- 12:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:32 AM CDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:38 PM CDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Bay Point
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Mon -- 12:20 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:13 AM CDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM CDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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