Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 12:34 AM   Moonset 10:24 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 959 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect through this evening - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 959 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
small craft advisory headlines will be lowered this morning as winds ease. But strong winds may occur with storms mainly this morning. After this system moves through today, the rest of the week should be relatively benign with light onshore flow.

FXUS64 KJAN 291516 AAB AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1016 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Decaying MCS is the near term story for us. Moisture transport and overall mid/upper support is well off to our SW/S in the Gulf now and we won't see recovery. Hi-res guidance has been downright bad with the evolution of this system, thus the forecast is suffering as starting guidance is way off on timing. I've mad a lot of manual adjustments to help, but honestly, it's still not right. Look for additional changes to better match temps and eventually changes to PoPs to show the exit of activity. Expect less PoPs for tonight as I don't see any recovery to support much.
Also, had to really reduce thunder wording as we just don't have instability to support that. We may see a bit this evening as some forcing with the upper feature could help, but confidence is not good with that as not sure about airmass recovery to support it.
Only thunder is really in our far SE 3 counties (Hwy 98) as the leading edge of the cold pool forcing helps focus convection. This is mainly from now until about noon-1p and there could be a brief gust to 30-35 mph. /CME/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today through tonight: A large mesoscale convective system will continue to track east across the area early this morning, and it should gradually weaken as it moves into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. One concern with this decaying MCS scenario is for a wake low wind event to take place, and current upstream obs suggest this could be unfolding (e.g., El Dorado gusted to 36 mph from the southeast). Will continue to monitor for increased mesoscale wind potential, but overall, any remaining severe threat looks marginal, and the progressive nature of the diminishing MCS should help to limit the heavy rain potential. Going through tonight, convective rainfall potential should continue ahead of a shortwave trough passage this evening. There may be increased fog potential for early Tuesday morning. /EC/

Tuesday through mid next week: Our area continues to be under a late spring/early summer regime with a warm humid airmass in place. Showers and thunderstorms will be a daily possibility, driven by this humid airmass, as well as intermittent disturbances. Through much of the week, ridging aloft will prevent any airmass change. Moisture is ample to support diurnal convection, though weak shear will limit any updraft organization.
Later in the week, a weak cold front attempts to push southward and may bring briefly cooler temperatures, but significant airmass change is unlikely. Rain and storm chances slowly decrease early next week as we begin to warm even more with temperatures in the upper 80s and perhaps some spots reach 90 degrees by mid next week. /SAS/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A decaying mesoscale convective system will move across the area accompanied by mostly MVFR category stratus and TS potential as we go through the morning, but expect a slight improvement later this afternoon with a greater chance for reaching VFR category. By late tonight, ceilings are expected to lower significantly, and we may see a greater threat for IFR category ceilings, and perhaps even some vsby reductions due to fog prior to daybreak. Overall, southerly surface wind and stronger mixing should limit widespread fog potential. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 78 62 82 62 / 100 60 10 0 Meridian 83 61 84 61 / 80 60 20 0 Vicksburg 76 63 84 63 / 100 30 10 10 Hattiesburg 82 64 86 64 / 100 60 30 10 Natchez 76 63 84 64 / 100 30 20 10 Greenville 75 64 82 63 / 100 40 0 0 Greenwood 75 63 82 62 / 90 60 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
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Mon -- 12:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:09 AM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:38 PM CDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

Waveland
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Mon -- 12:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:09 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:08 PM CDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet

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