Wednesday, October20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmead, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday October 20, 2021 8:00 AM CDT (13:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:09PMMoonset 6:30AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmead, TX
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location: 31.56, -97.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 201048 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ Update:

Minor adjustments to today's highs and cloud cover were made to this iteration of the forecast. Otherwise, a fairly quiet day is expected with above normal temperatures. A cold front is slated to move in tonight, slowly moving to the southwest tomorrow morning. Early morning temperatures should be in the mid 50s behind the front, with upper 50s to lower 60s expected ahead of the front. Rain chances continue to be slim, generally less than 10% due to weak forcing and an elevated capping inversion in place.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/

The warming trend we've experienced the last few days will continue into today as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s across the region. For reference, the expected highs today are 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

The warm temperatures can be attributed to a gradual veering of the winds later today, leading to compressional warming ahead of an incoming weak front. Winds will remain out of the south/southwest today, at times becoming breezy. As we approach sunset, a slow moving front will be sagging southward from northwestern North Texas. Given a lack of strong forcing for ascent, this front should remain mostly precipitation free.

A corridor of slightly higher moisture content will precede the front across North Texas early Thursday morning. Therefore, an isolated shower cannot completely be discounted but coverage is expected to remain below 15%. Locations that experience FROPA prior to sunrise Thursday will see lows in the mid to upper 50s, while those ahead of the front will be in the lower 60s.

Hernandez

LONG TERM. /Issued 213 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021/ /Thursday through Tuesday/

Warm and generally quiet weather is expected across North and Central Texas late in the week through the weekend with only some low rain chances Thursday night/Friday morning. The weather will become more unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

A weak cold front will stall across North Texas Thursday, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures generally north of the I-20 corridor with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The rest of the region will see highs mainly in the mid 80s. The cold front should enter the region dry, however, a passing shortwave Thursday night may provide just enough lift and moisture for a few showers and storms. The shortwave will translate eastward Friday morning, taking the low rain chances with it. Once the trough axis passes to the east the cold front will lift north of the Red River in response to a developing low pressure system in the west. Plenty of sun Friday afternoon and the return of southerly winds to the entire region will result in a warm afternoon with highs in the lower and middle 80s.

Subtle ridging aloft and increasing southerly flow Friday night and Saturday will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lows in the 60s and highs Saturday in the middle and upper 80s.

Increasing low level warm/moist advection Sunday and Monday will result in warm, humid and breezy conditions with morning low clouds. Temperatures both mornings will be in the middle and upper 60s with afternoon highs in the middle and upper 80s. A few warm air advection showers are also not out of the question, especially east of the I-35 corridor.

Some changes will begin to occur late Tuesday when a strong low pressure system emerges out of the Rockies. Energy from this system, coupled with abundant moisture, will yield increasing shower/thunderstorm chances, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday when a cold front moves across the region. The system should remain progressive so the rain/storm chances will be brief with drier and cooler air likely the latter half of next week.

79

AVIATION. /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Concerns . MVFR at all TAF sites this morning. Cold front leading to a wind shift tonight.

Low clouds have overspread much of the North and Central Texas TAF sites, generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. A plume of low-level moisture is moving across the region and will likely continue to cause MVFR conditions for much of the morning. In addition, patchy fog has developed across the Brazos Valley, where cloud cover is not present. Fog should remain patchy and away from the all TAF sites.

The MVFR should gradually lift as we approach the afternoon and low-level mixing strengthens. Winds are expected to be slightly weaker than the previous couple of days given a weaker surface pressure gradient. A wind shift is expected tonight as a cold front slowly moves to the southeast. Given the slow speed of the front, it is difficult to time the front's arrival at the TAF locations. This is something that will have to be adjusted through the day. At this time, it appears the front will move through between 11pm - 1 am, with the western airports experiencing FROPA first.

Behind the front, light northwesterly winds will prevail, generally below 5 knots. Post-frontal MVFR appears unlikely at this time, but some isolated clouds around FL025 will be possible along the front. An isolated rain shower or two will be possible along the Red River after midnight, but no impacts are expected to area TAF locations.

FROPA will hold off closer to sunrise at Waco, with similar effects compared to DFW. Generally, no major impacts are expected to TAF locations other than a wind shift associated with FROPA.

Hernandez

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 63 83 60 84 / 0 10 5 10 10 Waco 84 63 85 62 84 / 0 5 5 5 5 Paris 82 59 80 55 78 / 0 10 5 20 20 Denton 85 57 81 55 83 / 0 10 5 20 20 McKinney 85 60 82 56 82 / 0 10 5 20 20 Dallas 86 64 83 62 85 / 0 10 5 10 10 Terrell 85 61 83 57 84 / 0 5 5 10 10 Corsicana 86 63 85 61 85 / 0 5 5 10 10 Temple 84 62 85 60 85 / 0 5 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 85 58 81 58 83 / 0 10 10 10 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX8 mi69 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F64°F93%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACT

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SE9SE8S9S12S13S14
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2 days ago0N5NE30--0W63N30NE3E5E4E3000000NE300W4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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