Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waco, TX

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:49PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:02 PM CDT (20:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:48PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waco, TX
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location: 31.56, -97.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 231954 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 254 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

. New Long Term .

SHORT TERM. /Issued 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/ /Through Sunday/

Warm and breezy conditions will persist through most of the day on Sunday as ridging aloft remains in control. Winds will continue to pick up (if they haven't yet) to 15-20 mph gusting to near 25 mph through this evening. Isolated diurnally driven showers and storms will continue to sneak into our far southern/eastern counties but will dissipate just after sunset. A stronger low- level jet will develop across the region tonight bringing another round of low stratus into North and Central TX. The combination of increasing moisture, southerly flow, and low clouds will keep the morning temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Another warm, breezy, and humid day is in the forecast for tomorrow as the approaching Pacific front sharpens across the TX Panhandle and West TX. Little to no precipitation is anticipated over our area at least through the afternoon hours as we remain under a fairly stable environment. A brief shower/storm may attempt to develop over our southern/eastern counties during the peak heating hours, but most of the late afternoon development will occur along the front to our north/west. Opted to remove the slight chance of showers/storms across the far eastern zones as our confidence in this development is low.

Otherwise, the morning clouds will give way to a mostly sunny Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A few locations to the far western zones could reach low 90s.

Sanchez

LONG TERM. /NEW/ /Sunday Night through Next Week/

There is potential for a few medium to high impact weather episodes next week. The first is low potential for isolated strong to severe storms across our far Northeastern counties Sunday evening and night. The next will move into the area Tuesday and clear the area Wednesday. This system will initially bring rain and thunderstorm chances to Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday along a strong cold front. There will be a threat of severe weather with this mid-week system. Finally, it should be quite windy across the region Thursday/Friday. Please keep up with the forecast over the coming days as the extent of the threats and hazards come into better focus.

Meteorological Details . Sunday Night: A robust, but compact, low pressure system will eject out of the Plains and move into the Midwest Sunday. An attendant cold front will slide south and approach our Red River counties late in the day. The low level flow aloft ahead of the front will become heavily veered and become near parallel to the surface boundary. This will limit the moisture flux into the boundary and shunt all the precip chances east/northeast. A few tail-end showers and storms are possible across our far northeastern counties, but we are not expecting any precip west of US-69 and south of I-20.

Monday/Monday Night: As the upper support for the front races east, the front will stall across our forecast area Monday, most likely overtop or just south of our Central Texas counties. As the high pressure center shifts east and a new leeside low deepens to our west, the stalled front will become a clearly defined warm front. Expect the warm front to move north across much of North Texas Monday night into Tuesday. There is potential for some patches of dense fog Tuesday morning, but that will largely depend on where the warm front aligns itself.

Tuesday & Wednesday: Meanwhile, the remnants of Hurricane Rick will move overtop of the Mexican high plains and move over the Texas Gulf Coast Tuesday. At the same time, a powerful synoptic system will move into the Western CONUS. As the trough/low moves out of the intercontinental West, strong height falls will overspread the plains and deepen the aformentioned leeside low. Expect breezy south winds Tuesday with strong warm and moist advection in the low levels. The addition of mid/upper moisture brought in by the remnants of Rick will provide sufficient deep-layer moisture for showers and storms to develop Tuesday afternoon. Most of this activity will remain to our south, however, we have continued to advertise 20-30 PoPs for our eastern Central Texas counties. The remainder of the forecast area should remain capped with little to no storm chances.

The synoptic system will eject out of the Rockies Tuesday night and send a strong cold front east/south. We expect widespread showers and storms to develop along and head of the front across the entire region Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday for our eastern counties. As with any system this far out, the nuances of this system are still TBD such as the timing, strength of the front, and the extent/details of the severe hazards. What we do know is that there will be sufficient shear, lift, and moisture for strong to severe storms.

The front will bring a much cooler and drier airmass to the region to close out the work week and last into next weekend. Despite the cooler temperatures, they will still be within a few degrees of the climo normals for this time of the year.

Thursday & Friday: Windy conditions are expected Thursday/Friday next week. The upper low responsible for the mid-week front will stall and continue to deepen over the Eastern CONUS, leaving us on the subsident and dry side of the low. A dry conveyer belt is projected to crash down toward the surface late in the day and overnight coinciding with a 50-55 kt low level jet. The subsident air will allow for strong downward momentum transfer and gusty winds likely approaching or exceeding our Wind Advisory criteria if the guidance maintains consistency.

Please keep up with the latest forecasts tomorrow and early next week as the details and specific hazards come more into focus.

Bonnette

AVIATION. /Issued 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/ /18Z TAFs/

This TAF cycle starts to include some complex weather over the next 24-30 hours for both the D10 and Waco sites. VFR will continue to prevail through late Saturday evening. A surge in cloud cover will drop the sites into MVFR around 10Z for ACT and 11Z for the D10 sites. All sites will stay MVFR for a few hours, before lifting slightly back into VFR around 17Z. All TAF sites will have a chance to observe IFR in the early morning hours on Sunday. D10 sites will have a window between 12-14Z, while ACT has a slightly larger window for IFR between 10-13Z.

Gusty winds from the south will continue to prevail through the afternoon hours today and tomorrow, with a slight decrease in speeds during the overnight hours tonight. Expect winds between 14 to 16 kts with higher gusts throughout the TAF period for all sites. Model soundings keep the D10 and Waco TAF sites capped and dry through the next 24-30 hours, though areas to the south and east of the sites could see some isolated to scattered precipitation through this afternoon and the early evening hours. No weather impacts are expected at any of the TAF sites through this current period.

Prater

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 88 65 87 67 / 5 5 5 0 0 Waco 69 88 69 91 70 / 5 5 0 0 0 Paris 68 86 63 82 60 / 5 20 30 0 0 Denton 67 87 59 85 62 / 5 5 5 0 0 McKinney 69 86 63 86 63 / 0 5 10 0 0 Dallas 70 87 67 87 68 / 0 5 5 0 0 Terrell 69 87 65 87 65 / 0 5 10 0 0 Corsicana 69 88 69 88 69 / 5 5 5 0 0 Temple 68 88 69 91 70 / 5 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 67 89 59 87 65 / 5 5 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX4 mi72 minSSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F68°F53%1010.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACT

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S5SE6SE5SE5SE6SE7SE8S10S9S7S10S7SW14
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1 day ago4N5E5E3N3N5N4NE6N4N4NE30N3000N3N6N3NE4SE3SE5E7S5
2 days ago6S8S5S6S4S4SW3S3S3S3S4SE300N4N40N6N7N6N50NW60

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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