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FXUS65 KTWC 152016 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 116 PM MST Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm, mostly dry and locally breezy conditions will persist into the weekend, with just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain to the north and east of Tucson through Thursday. High temperatures will be right around normal through Thursday, with highs warming to several degrees above normal Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Latest WV satellite imagery shows a weak upper low currently over the far northern Baja peninsula sliding eastward.
Clear to partly cloudy skies currently across southeast Arizona with a cumulus cloud field having developed especially along/near the higher terrain. For this afternoon, there isn't enough moisture, lift and instability to result in much more than cumulus for most of our area. However, the moisture profile is better up towards the White Mountains and in that region a few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Otherwise, we're looking at another warm afternoon with a few afternoon gusts.

The aforementioned mid/upper low will swing to the east tonight along the Arizona/Sonora border. While moisture values are modest with PWAT values just over 0.5 inches, there is enough mid level moisture that some of the HRRR members are trying to develop some light shower/virga activity during the evening and overnight hours, especially to the north and east of Tucson. This is something we'll be keeping an eye on into the evening but for now given the dry sub- cloud layer, we'll keep PoPs below 10 percent.

While the main part of the mid/upper low slides east into New Mexico Thursday, another disturbance on the backside of the system will help to enhance the lift Thursday. Meanwhile, with increased mid level moisture (again mainly NE of Tucson), and PWAT values around 0.6 to 0.7 inches, that will be enough to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms for the higher terrain of Greenlee and northern Graham Counties. Can't rule out a dry thunderstorm as far west as SE Pinal County/Tucson Metro Thursday but confidence is low and won't include in the official forecast. Regardless, with whatever shower activity does occur, gusty outflow winds are possible. Otherwise, expect larger scale gusty northwest winds for much of the forecast area, with the focus east of Tucson with gusts up to around 30 mph Thursday afternoon.

This system will push off to our east completely by Friday with dry conditions returning area-wide and shortwave ridging building back in. Gusty west to northwest winds are once again expected east of Tucson. Temperatures on Saturday will be making a run for the first 100 in Tucson. It's going to be real close and could go either way, the current forecast is depicting 99 degrees.

Thereafter, for Sunday through early next week, temperatures will gradually lower several degrees, though still running a few degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon breezes will continue during this period.

AVIATION
Valid through 17/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL thru the forecast period. A slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA, primarily northeast of KSAD in the White Mountains thru 16/03Z. Some isolated virga/light shower activity possible overnight from KTUS eastward, then a slight chance of - SHRA/-TSRA, once again mainly focused on areas from KSAD northeastward aft 16/18Z thru end of period. SFC winds SWLY/WLY at 11-17 kts and gusts to 20-27 kts thru 16/04Z, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK, KDUG and KSAD. Aft 16/04Z thru 16/18Z, winds mainly less than 12 kts. SFC winds then become WLY/NWLY 12-20 kts with higher gusts Thursday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be right around normal through Thursday. Highs then warm to 3-5 degrees above normal Friday and 6-9 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens the next 7 days, with values in the mountains generally between 10-20 percent (except on Thursday when they will be in the 15-30 percent range).
20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal wind trends through the weekend, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds will be through Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of 15- 20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph. Southwest-west winds are expected into this evening and west-northwest winds on Thursday. There will be just enough mid level moisture in place, mainly in the White Mountains today and for locales mainly north and east of Tucson Thursday for a few showers and thunderstorms. Outside the White Mountains Thursday, these will tend to be dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning, but little to no measurable rainfall.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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