Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX
May 2, 2024 10:01 PM CDT (03:01 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 2:11 AM Moonset 1:10 PM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 022350 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 650 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A few scattered showers will continue to move northeast across portions of Northern/Northeast Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas through early this evening in the wake of the departing shortwave trough that brought this morning's MCS to the area. Additional scattered convection may develop this evening along and north of Interstate 20 along a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned convective complex. The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain during the overnight hours. For the last couple of days, model guidance has generally been in decent agreement that another convective complex will form across Texas and Southern Oklahoma before diving east-southeast and into our CWA early Friday morning, in a very similar situation to what we had today.
The latest models introduce considerable uncertainty regarding rain chances for Friday. The 12z NAM continues to be far more aggressive than the remainder of the guidance. The GFS and ECMWF also depict convection moving east-southeast into the area but have trended downward regarding coverage, intensity, and QPF amounts. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the CAMs depict very little in the way of thunderstorms. Some of them either keep the next MCS to our west and southwest, or don't even show one developing. The NSSL-WRF is the most supportive of another convective complex, but has it quickly weakening with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex by 09z-12z. Most of the guidance tends to struggle in this type of pattern with a persistent southwest flow and a surface boundary well to our northwest. The trends in the CAMs are likely due to today's convection overturning the environment and lack of recovery of diurnal instability. However, with low-level southerly flow and warm air advection some surface- based CAPE could still recover tonight. If a convective complex does develop to our west, the key factor in its survival into our CWA will likely center around something that can help propagate the complex eastward like a mature cold pool or the development of a MCV. Unfortunately, as mentioned, model guidance struggles greatly in these scenarios.
Based on the trends in the models, rain chances were lowered somewhat after midnight tonight through much of Friday. This also lowers forecast QPF amounts a great deal, as most locations are generally expected to see an inch or less of additional rainfall through Friday evening. Since the heavy rain threat has already diminished for today, the Flood Watch was cancelled early. The surface front that the next round of thunderstorms is expected to develop along should stall near or north of I-30 Friday morning before lifting back northward during the day. As a result, PoPs should diminish Friday afternoon and become increasingly confined to areas north of I-20 before falling below mentionable levels in most areas by midnight Saturday morning.
CN
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Saturday is likely to be a very similar situation to today and Friday. Another weak disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft will trigger thunderstorms along the frontal boundary across the Plains well to our north late Friday. What's left of this complex is expected to move into our area during the day Friday.
Redevelopment along a residual outflow boundary Saturday afternoon should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the northwest half of the CWA The front should sag farther south Saturday with yet another round of strong convection developing along the front and dryline over Texas and Oklahoma. This batch of storms should initiate farther south and should have a better chance of reach our CWA during the day Sunday. In addition, the shortwave trough moving across the Southern Plains appears to be more defined than previous days, which should result in increase lift helping to sustain the showers and thunderstorms. Thus, widespread high PoPs in the forecast for Sunday, especially in the morning.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Monday and Tuesday. The biggest change early next week is that a much stronger longwave trough is forecast to lift from the Southern/Central Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
This should keep the best large scale forcing well to our north Monday and Tuesday. However, with strong low-level southerly flow and southwesterly flow aloft, there will be plenty of instability to fuel more convective development especially as a front finally begins to move into and across the area on Thursday.
Rain chances are currently expected to be lower than in the short- term forecast period and more scattered in nature. Combined with strong southerly winds and warm air advection, perhaps the bigger story will be the building heat and humidity next week. Daytime high temperatures should be warming into the 90s in several locations by Tuesday and may be into the mid 90s in many locations by Wednesday and Thursday. Very humid conditions are also expected. This will likely push peak heat index values near or over the century mark across much of the area south of I-20.
CN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A very complicated TAF forecast is anticipated over the next 24-hours, as uncertainties remain regarding overnight precipitation. In the event a line of thunderstorms moves into the region, TSRA will likely become much more widespread in FM groups.
Regardless, look for IFR and LIFR VIS and CIGS as low clouds return by 03/10z, with SHRA/-RA following shortly thereafter.
/44/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 81 68 86 / 50 50 20 40 MLU 68 81 65 86 / 40 60 30 30 DEQ 65 81 64 82 / 50 40 20 50 TXK 67 81 66 83 / 50 50 30 50 ELD 66 80 63 84 / 40 60 30 30 TYR 67 82 68 84 / 50 40 20 40 GGG 68 81 67 84 / 50 50 20 40 LFK 68 81 68 84 / 50 60 10 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 650 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A few scattered showers will continue to move northeast across portions of Northern/Northeast Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas through early this evening in the wake of the departing shortwave trough that brought this morning's MCS to the area. Additional scattered convection may develop this evening along and north of Interstate 20 along a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned convective complex. The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain during the overnight hours. For the last couple of days, model guidance has generally been in decent agreement that another convective complex will form across Texas and Southern Oklahoma before diving east-southeast and into our CWA early Friday morning, in a very similar situation to what we had today.
The latest models introduce considerable uncertainty regarding rain chances for Friday. The 12z NAM continues to be far more aggressive than the remainder of the guidance. The GFS and ECMWF also depict convection moving east-southeast into the area but have trended downward regarding coverage, intensity, and QPF amounts. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the CAMs depict very little in the way of thunderstorms. Some of them either keep the next MCS to our west and southwest, or don't even show one developing. The NSSL-WRF is the most supportive of another convective complex, but has it quickly weakening with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex by 09z-12z. Most of the guidance tends to struggle in this type of pattern with a persistent southwest flow and a surface boundary well to our northwest. The trends in the CAMs are likely due to today's convection overturning the environment and lack of recovery of diurnal instability. However, with low-level southerly flow and warm air advection some surface- based CAPE could still recover tonight. If a convective complex does develop to our west, the key factor in its survival into our CWA will likely center around something that can help propagate the complex eastward like a mature cold pool or the development of a MCV. Unfortunately, as mentioned, model guidance struggles greatly in these scenarios.
Based on the trends in the models, rain chances were lowered somewhat after midnight tonight through much of Friday. This also lowers forecast QPF amounts a great deal, as most locations are generally expected to see an inch or less of additional rainfall through Friday evening. Since the heavy rain threat has already diminished for today, the Flood Watch was cancelled early. The surface front that the next round of thunderstorms is expected to develop along should stall near or north of I-30 Friday morning before lifting back northward during the day. As a result, PoPs should diminish Friday afternoon and become increasingly confined to areas north of I-20 before falling below mentionable levels in most areas by midnight Saturday morning.
CN
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Saturday is likely to be a very similar situation to today and Friday. Another weak disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft will trigger thunderstorms along the frontal boundary across the Plains well to our north late Friday. What's left of this complex is expected to move into our area during the day Friday.
Redevelopment along a residual outflow boundary Saturday afternoon should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the northwest half of the CWA The front should sag farther south Saturday with yet another round of strong convection developing along the front and dryline over Texas and Oklahoma. This batch of storms should initiate farther south and should have a better chance of reach our CWA during the day Sunday. In addition, the shortwave trough moving across the Southern Plains appears to be more defined than previous days, which should result in increase lift helping to sustain the showers and thunderstorms. Thus, widespread high PoPs in the forecast for Sunday, especially in the morning.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Monday and Tuesday. The biggest change early next week is that a much stronger longwave trough is forecast to lift from the Southern/Central Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
This should keep the best large scale forcing well to our north Monday and Tuesday. However, with strong low-level southerly flow and southwesterly flow aloft, there will be plenty of instability to fuel more convective development especially as a front finally begins to move into and across the area on Thursday.
Rain chances are currently expected to be lower than in the short- term forecast period and more scattered in nature. Combined with strong southerly winds and warm air advection, perhaps the bigger story will be the building heat and humidity next week. Daytime high temperatures should be warming into the 90s in several locations by Tuesday and may be into the mid 90s in many locations by Wednesday and Thursday. Very humid conditions are also expected. This will likely push peak heat index values near or over the century mark across much of the area south of I-20.
CN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
A very complicated TAF forecast is anticipated over the next 24-hours, as uncertainties remain regarding overnight precipitation. In the event a line of thunderstorms moves into the region, TSRA will likely become much more widespread in FM groups.
Regardless, look for IFR and LIFR VIS and CIGS as low clouds return by 03/10z, with SHRA/-RA following shortly thereafter.
/44/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 81 68 86 / 50 50 20 40 MLU 68 81 65 86 / 40 60 30 30 DEQ 65 81 64 82 / 50 40 20 50 TXK 67 81 66 83 / 50 50 30 50 ELD 66 80 63 84 / 40 60 30 30 TYR 67 82 68 84 / 50 40 20 40 GGG 68 81 67 84 / 50 50 20 40 LFK 68 81 68 84 / 50 60 10 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOCH NACOGDOCHES A L MANGHAM JR RGNL,TX | 4 sm | 65 min | ESE 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 72°F | 100% | 29.83 |
Shreveport, LA,
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