Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM   Moonset 3:45 PM

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FXUS62 KTAE 050009 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 809 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong to marginally severe) this afternoon should persist into the evening hrs thanks to a couple of shortwave troughs providing some upper-level support amidst a moist/unstable airmass. Cooler temperatures aloft associated with the lead shortwave directly overhead may be supporting robust updrafts as some convection has exhibited tall cores, frequent lightning, and occasional downburst signatures.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been observed as well. The trailing shortwave is aiding in some large-scale lift for non-seabreeze driven convection north of the FL state line. Remnant outflow boundaries could also lead to lead to additional development. This activity should diminish later tonight. Fog and low stratus should develop in its place towards early tomorrow morning while low temperatures once again dip to unseasonably warm mid/upper 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are poised to develop tomorrow afternoon via the seabreeze and perhaps an upstream shortwave lifting across the Upper MS Valley. Coverage appears less than today with the best chances (up to ~40%) in the Eastern FL Big Bend into South-Central GA. Forecast soundings depict a moist/unstable/semi-Inverted V profile which would support gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, a building subtropical ridge from the Gulf ushers very warm conditions. High temperatures are poised to flirt with 90 degrees away from the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Another weak shortwave passes over the area on Monday, perhaps bringing a slight boost to our rain chances Monday afternoon. The highest rain chances will generally be closer to the I-75 corridor and the Suwannee River Valley (up to 50%), decreasing to the south and west. Some gusty winds may be possible in the stronger storms Monday afternoon. Wouldn't rule out some small hail either given the shortwave on top of us giving us cooler mid-level temperatures and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates. Outside of storms, highs will be in the upper 80s for most areas, though closer to the mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will be in the middle to upper 60s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Mid-level ridging will build across the area mid-week, then begin to flatten out as another trough approaches from the northwest.
Recent ensemble guidance trends indicate that the ridging may not be quite as robust as previous forecasts and that troughing to our north and west could be a bit more progressive and stronger. While it will still be hot, it may not be quite as hot as previously thought. Highs could still reach the mid-90s in a few spots Thursday and maybe Friday, but most will likely top out in the lower 90s. Lows will become more muggy through the week as they climb into the lower 70s.

A cold front sinks into our forecast area on Friday into Friday night, which will bring an increase in rain chances Friday afternoon. While it's too early to determine any severe potential with this system, we'll keep an eye on it as it appears there could be some overlap of adequate shear and instability on Friday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 758 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Storms continue across southern GA and into northern Florida affecting mostly TLH. These will continue through the next few hours with activity diminishing by midnight. Expect a convective lull overnight/tmrw morning, but we will see returning fog/low stratus, especially where rain has fallen this afternoon.
Restrictions of IFR or lower are most likely at ECP/TLH/VLD with at least MVFR elsewhere during the pre-dawn hrs.

MARINE
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Generally light south to southeast winds are expected through the middle of next week with high pressure off to our east. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet. Some increase in winds are possible mid to late week as the pressure gradient tightens.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon via seabreeze initiation. Convection will be capable of gusty/erratic winds and frequent lightning. Coverage should be less compared to today. Best chances are over the Eastern FL Big Bend through the I-75 corridor. Otherwise, very warm conditions are on tap for Sunday with forecast inland high temperatures around 90 and heat indices a few degrees higher.

For Monday, we are looking at more diurnally driven storms to focus along the seabreeze, then drift north past the FL state line.
Similarly warm conditions return as highs surge into the upper 80s to near 90. Brisk southerly winds combined with mixing heights up to 5000+ ft yield widespread high dispersions Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, a strong ridge of high pressure aims to suppress convection and serve as a primer for even hotter weather as the work week progresses.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Localized heavy downpours are possible in the stronger showers and storms over the next couple days. PWATs are forecast to be near 1.3 to 1.6 inches, which is around the 75th-90th percentile for this time of year. These storms won't be widespread, and the heavier totals of 2-3 inches will be fairly localized. Thus, only nuisance flooding of poor drainage or urban areas is expected. Due to the sporadic nature of these storms, river systems will likely remain unphased by localized downpours.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 88 67 88 / 30 20 0 30 Panama City 68 84 69 84 / 0 10 0 10 Dothan 65 88 67 88 / 30 20 0 20 Albany 65 88 67 88 / 40 20 10 40 Valdosta 65 89 67 88 / 30 30 10 50 Cross City 65 89 66 88 / 10 40 0 30 Apalachicola 70 81 70 82 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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