Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dutch Island, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:44PM Sunday January 16, 2022 4:39 AM EST (09:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:33PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 318 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.gale warning in effect through Monday morning...
Today..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 9 ft this afternoon. Rain with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 318 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A strengthening low pressure system will move northeast through the area today. Cold high pressure will build into the region Monday and Tuesday, moving offshore Wednesday. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area Thursday. A coastal low pressure system could bring wintry precipitation to the area late Thursday night through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dutch Island, GA
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location: 31.98, -81.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 160924 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 424 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. A strengthening low pressure system will move northeast through the area today. Cold high pressure will build into the region Monday and Tuesday, moving offshore Wednesday. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area Thursday. A coastal low pressure system could bring wintry precipitation to the area late Thursday night through Friday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: Plentiful and impactful weather across the forecast area as an intense region of low pressure moving through Alabama and Georgia will occlude, sending the initial low near the Appalachians, with the occluded low becoming the stronger feature as it lifts across the lower and central Savannah River area late morning, then north of the Santee River this afternoon. The combination of large scale forcing for ascent and deep moisture will occur with a coupled jet and its associated upper difluence/divergence with PWat reaching upwards to 1.2 to 1.4 inches. This will promise us with widespread light to moderate rains this morning, as we are carrying 100% PoPs all locations. There is a noticeable dry slot that arrives from the southwest this afternoon behind the exiting frontal system, and we look for the coverage of the rain to drop off considerably, and some sunshine will actually develop. Temperatures will be somewhat of a challenge, as some places will experience a huge warm up as warm front and occluded fronts lift through most of the forecast district, allowing for a south and southwest low level flow to develop. This should boost temps along the coastal corridor to 60-64F, but how far inland the warm air penetrates is the main problem. So we have just 50 or the lower 50s along the immediate northwest tier for max temps.

Winter weather: Latest meso-analysis and guidance keeps any freezing wet bulb temps north of the forecast zones. Given the strength of the warm nose, there still doesn't look to be much risk for anything other than liquid precipitation with this event. As a worst case scenario there could be a little snow or sleet north of Lake Moultrie where the coldest temps and lowest wet bulbs will be found through mid morning. No accumulation would occur.

Thunderstorms: There is still little in the way of CAPE and instability, although shear is quite strong. As the warm front lifts north and utilizing the Hi-Res guidances which depicts a band or line of heavier showers and a few t-storms lifting north-northeast from off the Florida and Georgia coasts in the morning, brushing parts of mainly the coastal sections of Beaufort, Colleton and Charleston from about 11 am to 2 pm. Because of this and the SPC forecast showing a "Marginal Risk", we have included mention of a slight chance of t-storms during that time period. There is a non-zero risk of damaging winds and an isolated tornado that moves in from the ocean. However, the higher risk for t-storms will stay offshore.

Strong Winds: While there is good pinching across the area within a northeast and east flow, the highest winds for today will be as winds clock around to the southwest behind a cold front this afternoon. We're not totally convinced that winds will technically reach advisory criteria, but there should be enough of an impact due to tree limbs and some weaker trees being blown down due to the saturated grounds. Because of this will have issued both a Lake Wind Advisory on Lake Moultrie as well as a Wind Advisory for the coastal zones of South Carolina and most of Georgia.

QPF: On average we're looking at about 1-2 inches across the entire forecast region, with the heaviest amounts over the Charleston Tri_County and most especially for Charleston County itself where some local amounts could top 2 inches.

Tonight: Until the passage of a short wave and within the coldest air aloft there is still the risk of at least isolated showers early on. The rest of the night though does look to be rainfree, and although temps will plunge down into the mid and upper 30s, it doesn't look quite cold enough for black ice. Even if it does get a tad colder, there is still too much wind which would dry things out. As a result we have a continuation of both the Wind Advisory over most counties and across Lake Moultrie as the colder air arrives.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Cool and dry high pressure will build over the region Monday and Tuesday. A downslope trajectory will yield high temps in the low to mid 50s despite moderate cold air advection. Strong radiational cooling Monday night will help temps drop into the mid 20s far inland with upper 20s to lower 30s as one gets closer to the coast. Lows Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer.

The surface high will shift off the coast early Wednesday morning. The resulting warm air advection will support high temps in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. An arctic high will drop out of the Northern Plains Wednesday night, pushing a cold front into the area on Thursday. There looks to be enough moisture and forcing for scattered showers to accompany the front. The front is expected to stall just off the coast and transition into a broad baroclinic zone. A potent upper shortwave approaches on Friday, causing cyclogenesis either in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or along the Southeast coast.

There are significant model differences regarding the location and track of the coastal low. The ECMWF and CMC have a much wetter solution with the low developing over the eastern Gulf and tracking up the coast. The 00Z GFS was considerably drier than its 18Z counterpart and has the low developing well off the Southeast U.S. coast, then tracking northeast. The QPF late Thursday night through Friday night will be critical because thermal profiles support some wintry precipitation.

Model soundings and partial thicknesses show the potential for some freezing rain over northern and western zones late Thursday night as surface wet bulbs steadily drop. On Friday, the predominant p-type depends on which model you look at. The GFS, with its offshore low track, indicates mainly snow would occur across the majority of the area. Meanwhile, the wetter ECMWF/CMC and its closer low track show mostly rain or freezing rain on Friday, then some changeover to snow Friday night. All models show drier air moving in from the west Friday night, ending any precip by daybreak Saturday. Given that this potential event is so far in the future (Day 6), we kept things simple by introducing some freezing rain over northern areas late Thursday night, then a combination of rain and/or snow Friday and Friday night.

Temps will be well below normal through the period.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A deep and organized area of low pressure will track across the Deep South toward the region pre-dawn, passing through the area late morning and early afternoon, then further away thereafter. A shield of light rainfall will spread ahead of the system, accompanied by conditions lowering to MVFR and IFR as the rain becomes more moderate in intensity during the daylight hours.

A noticeable dry slot will arrive this afternoon, essentially shutting off the vast majority of the rain and allowing for VFR to return, at least temporarily.

There is also a small risk for a TSRA at KJZI and near KCHS from about 16-19Z. Not enough confidence to include any mention though at this time.

NE and E winds will steadily increase this morning, clocking around to the SW late morning and afternoon. There will be a brief window for marginal low level wind shear during this transition at KCHS and KJZI. Winds will peak around 20G30 knots with the shifting of winds to the SW, but occasional higher speeds can occur.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR Monday through Wednesday. Brief flight restrictions possible Thursday as scattered rain showers accompany a cold front. Gusty west winds on Monday.

MARINE. Today and tonight: Mariners should be prepared for dangerous conditions as an intense low and associated frontal system impacts the local waters. This will easily result in Gale force winds all waters as winds veer around from the NE and E this morning to the SW this afternoon and to the W tonight. There are even indications of a few hours of Storm Force winds on the AMZ350 waters this afternoon with the initially surge once winds veer around to the SW. This will have to be watched very carefully through the day. In addition, isolated t-storms will occur late this morning on the Georgia waters, spreading north into the South Carolina waters through the early afternoon. There could be locally damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornadic waterspout or two with these storms. Seas will respond significantly to the high winds, and look to reach as large as 9 to 13 feet, highest on the Charleston County and outer Georgia waters into at least early tonight.

Marine winds will gradually subside on Monday with all Gale Warnings dropping off by late afternoon. We'll need a period of Small Craft Advisories once the Gales drop. Winds/seas will drop off considerably by Tuesday as the surface high builds overhead. No headlines expected Tuesday through Thursday. Strong NNE winds expected to develop Thursday night and persist into the weekend as arctic high pressure builds from the west and coastal low pressure develops. Headlines are likely starting Thursday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tidal departures continue to climb appreciably, and it looks like it'll reach above 7.0 ft MLLW in Charleston Harbor with the early morning high tide. As a result we have hoisted a Coastal Flood Advisory for Charleston and coastal Colleton. Combined with the rains the risk is even higher for any flooding.

Interestingly, winds will shift to a strong offshore flow tonight, and this will lead to blowout tide conditions around the 1-2 am low tide.

High Surf: Local forecast tools show breakers as large as 5 to 7 feet in the surf zone from late this morning into tonight. This has prompted a High Surf Advisory along coastal sections of Charleston south to coastal Chatham County.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141. High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for GAZ119. SC . Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for SCZ047>052. High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for SCZ048-051. Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Monday for SCZ045. High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ049-050. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ049- 050. MARINE . Gale Warning until noon EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354-374. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ330.



NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . JRL LONG TERM . JRL AVIATION . MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi52 min ENE 25G32 53°F 56°F1011.4 hPa
41033 38 mi32 min E 27G37 54°F 56°F1011.4 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 41 mi50 min E 9.7G12 62°F 60°F5 ft1008.9 hPa (-4.1)
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 42 mi100 min ENE 12 58°F 1011 hPa (-4.0)56°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA8 mi44 minENE 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast52°F46°F79%1010.1 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA15 mi47 minENE 17 G 2410.00 miOvercast50°F46°F86%1011 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC23 mi45 minNE 17 G 2410.00 miOvercast52°F50°F94%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr0000000E3E7E8E10E11E12--E9NE11NE12
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1 day agoNW9NW8NW5W5NW8NW7N7N9W8W9W9W3W7NW50000000000
2 days ago0000NW30NW6--NW4W9--W9SW60W30W5W6SW5W10W8W10W9W9

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel, Wilmington River, Georgia
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Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel
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Sun -- 12:46 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     7.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:28 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:29 PM EST     6.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel, Wilmington River, Georgia, Tide feet
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2.7


Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:34 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:17 AM EST     2.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:39 AM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:24 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     1.47 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:43 PM EST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots
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