Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitney, TX
May 7, 2024 5:02 PM CDT (22:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 5:06 AM Moonset 7:08 PM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 071918 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 202 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /Through Wednesday night/
An unseasonably warm day is taking shape this Tuesday as temperature rise into the mid-upper 80s. Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front moving across North Texas, and while it is bringing drier air, temperatures won't change much as highs are expected to peak in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The front will likely diffuse as it becomes nearly stationary over our area, so half of our CWA will enjoy the dewpoints in the 30s/40s and the other half will stay in the 60s/70s. Winds will return to the south this afternoon but will stay light.
While dry and mostly clear conditions will continue for most of us today, a few isolated storms may develop across western Central Texas this evening. If storms are able to develop near/south of the diffuse front, they may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. They should be short-lived and diminish by 9-10pm. Otherwise, mostly tranquil conditions are expected tonight other than low clouds returning to our area early Wednesday morning. This will keep morning lows in the 60s and 70s.
As advertised over the last several days, the weather pattern will be active on Wednesday as another dryline/cold front approaches from the north. While there is a low chance (<10%) of showers and isolated storms late morning or early afternoon, the main storm event will still evolve in the late afternoon and evening. Scattered storms are expected to develop along the surface boundary, especially along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20. Some of these storms will be severe given the highly unstable environment (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). While very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, we can't rule out a tornado or two. The main window to pay attention will be between 4-9 pm as most of the activity should be east of our area after that. Storms may be fairly discrete at first and eventually merge into a cluster as they move across northeast/east Texas. Rain chances decrease after midnight with quiet conditions persisting overnight.
Sanchez
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Thursday and Beyond/
Weak surface low pressure will shift across the Ohio River Valley Thursday with a trailing cold front extending into portions of East and Central Texas. This frontal boundary will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon/evening (not everyone will see storms!) as it gradually pushes toward the Texas Gulf Coast. 7.5-8.0 degreeC/km mid-level lapse rates atop a very moist airmass marked by surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will lead to strong instability ahead of the frontal boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE by Thursday afternoon across much of Central Texas. 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear will allow for organized storm structures capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow will likely keep the tornado threat low. The greatest storm chances will remain along/south of the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening until the cold front finally pushes out of our forecast area late Thursday evening. We will also need to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially since the bulk of this rainfall is expected to fall over already water-logged areas across Central and East Texas.
Northerly low-level flow behind the frontal boundary will usher in a drier, cooler airmass, allowing for a nice start to the weekend with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s expected Friday and Saturday.
Onshore flow will return to North and Central Texas by Sunday beginning a gradual increase in low-level moisture and cloud cover. Isolated to scattered rain chances could return to the region by early Sunday across our west and south on the nose of this stronger warm/moist advection, especially as a mid-level disturbance approaches from the west. An active subtropical jet overtop sufficient moisture will keep at least daily low to medium chances for rain through the midweek period across North and Central Texas. Limited instability will likely keep the severe threat on the lower end through at least Monday, but we will need to assess this potential further as we get closer to the weekend.
Langfeld
AVIATION
/Issued 109 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /18Z TAFs/
Concerns...Low cigs early Wednesday morning, convective potential Wednesday afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the day and most of the night before another round of low clouds/MVFR cigs return to the region around 07-08Z. While the majority of the IFR ceilings are expected to stay across portions of East/Central TX, there is a medium-high chance KACT will see IFR conditions between 11-15Z.
Clouds will eventually scatter out by early afternoon as a weak cold front moves through. Winds will shift from northwesterly to south-southeasterly in the next few hours, but will remain light through tonight. They are forecast to increase tomorrow morning to around 12-18 kt gusting to 25 kt.
A few isolated storms may develop across western Central Texas and move near KACT this evening, but probability/confidence remain low to mention any thunder at this time. For tomorrow afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop near an approaching cold front in North Texas. The highest chances remain to the north-northeast of the DFW Metroplex sites, but one or two storms may impact some of the eastern sites (KDFW, KDAL, and KGKY). Given the uncertainties on timing and coverage, the current forecast didn't introduce any VCTS at this time. This will need to be monitored during future TAFs updates.
Sanchez
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 91 67 81 62 / 5 20 10 30 20 Waco 72 89 71 82 62 / 10 20 10 40 20 Paris 69 85 63 81 59 / 10 30 30 30 20 Denton 69 90 63 81 58 / 0 10 10 20 10 McKinney 70 89 64 80 59 / 5 30 20 30 10 Dallas 73 91 67 82 62 / 5 20 10 30 20 Terrell 72 87 67 82 60 / 10 20 20 30 20 Corsicana 74 87 71 84 62 / 10 20 20 40 20 Temple 72 89 70 84 62 / 20 5 5 40 10 Mineral Wells 69 91 63 80 58 / 0 0 5 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 202 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /Through Wednesday night/
An unseasonably warm day is taking shape this Tuesday as temperature rise into the mid-upper 80s. Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front moving across North Texas, and while it is bringing drier air, temperatures won't change much as highs are expected to peak in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The front will likely diffuse as it becomes nearly stationary over our area, so half of our CWA will enjoy the dewpoints in the 30s/40s and the other half will stay in the 60s/70s. Winds will return to the south this afternoon but will stay light.
While dry and mostly clear conditions will continue for most of us today, a few isolated storms may develop across western Central Texas this evening. If storms are able to develop near/south of the diffuse front, they may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. They should be short-lived and diminish by 9-10pm. Otherwise, mostly tranquil conditions are expected tonight other than low clouds returning to our area early Wednesday morning. This will keep morning lows in the 60s and 70s.
As advertised over the last several days, the weather pattern will be active on Wednesday as another dryline/cold front approaches from the north. While there is a low chance (<10%) of showers and isolated storms late morning or early afternoon, the main storm event will still evolve in the late afternoon and evening. Scattered storms are expected to develop along the surface boundary, especially along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20. Some of these storms will be severe given the highly unstable environment (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). While very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, we can't rule out a tornado or two. The main window to pay attention will be between 4-9 pm as most of the activity should be east of our area after that. Storms may be fairly discrete at first and eventually merge into a cluster as they move across northeast/east Texas. Rain chances decrease after midnight with quiet conditions persisting overnight.
Sanchez
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Thursday and Beyond/
Weak surface low pressure will shift across the Ohio River Valley Thursday with a trailing cold front extending into portions of East and Central Texas. This frontal boundary will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon/evening (not everyone will see storms!) as it gradually pushes toward the Texas Gulf Coast. 7.5-8.0 degreeC/km mid-level lapse rates atop a very moist airmass marked by surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will lead to strong instability ahead of the frontal boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE by Thursday afternoon across much of Central Texas. 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear will allow for organized storm structures capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow will likely keep the tornado threat low. The greatest storm chances will remain along/south of the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening until the cold front finally pushes out of our forecast area late Thursday evening. We will also need to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially since the bulk of this rainfall is expected to fall over already water-logged areas across Central and East Texas.
Northerly low-level flow behind the frontal boundary will usher in a drier, cooler airmass, allowing for a nice start to the weekend with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s expected Friday and Saturday.
Onshore flow will return to North and Central Texas by Sunday beginning a gradual increase in low-level moisture and cloud cover. Isolated to scattered rain chances could return to the region by early Sunday across our west and south on the nose of this stronger warm/moist advection, especially as a mid-level disturbance approaches from the west. An active subtropical jet overtop sufficient moisture will keep at least daily low to medium chances for rain through the midweek period across North and Central Texas. Limited instability will likely keep the severe threat on the lower end through at least Monday, but we will need to assess this potential further as we get closer to the weekend.
Langfeld
AVIATION
/Issued 109 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /18Z TAFs/
Concerns...Low cigs early Wednesday morning, convective potential Wednesday afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the day and most of the night before another round of low clouds/MVFR cigs return to the region around 07-08Z. While the majority of the IFR ceilings are expected to stay across portions of East/Central TX, there is a medium-high chance KACT will see IFR conditions between 11-15Z.
Clouds will eventually scatter out by early afternoon as a weak cold front moves through. Winds will shift from northwesterly to south-southeasterly in the next few hours, but will remain light through tonight. They are forecast to increase tomorrow morning to around 12-18 kt gusting to 25 kt.
A few isolated storms may develop across western Central Texas and move near KACT this evening, but probability/confidence remain low to mention any thunder at this time. For tomorrow afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop near an approaching cold front in North Texas. The highest chances remain to the north-northeast of the DFW Metroplex sites, but one or two storms may impact some of the eastern sites (KDFW, KDAL, and KGKY). Given the uncertainties on timing and coverage, the current forecast didn't introduce any VCTS at this time. This will need to be monitored during future TAFs updates.
Sanchez
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 91 67 81 62 / 5 20 10 30 20 Waco 72 89 71 82 62 / 10 20 10 40 20 Paris 69 85 63 81 59 / 10 30 30 30 20 Denton 69 90 63 81 58 / 0 10 10 20 10 McKinney 70 89 64 80 59 / 5 30 20 30 10 Dallas 73 91 67 82 62 / 5 20 10 30 20 Terrell 72 87 67 82 60 / 10 20 20 30 20 Corsicana 74 87 71 84 62 / 10 20 20 40 20 Temple 72 89 70 84 62 / 20 5 5 40 10 Mineral Wells 69 91 63 80 58 / 0 0 5 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KINJ HILLSBORO MUNI,TX | 15 sm | 27 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 91°F | 72°F | 53% | 29.65 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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