Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitney, TX
May 19, 2024 6:18 PM CDT (23:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:00 PM Moonset 3:10 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 191939 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 239 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ Update: /Start Of The Week/
The previous short-term discussions below handle everything through tonight well and see no significant changes (more like a few tweaks) to the forecast.
Monday will be mostly a carbon-copy of today with an upper ridge keeping any mid level systems deflected well to the north of the area with subsidence keeping the area very breezy, warm, and humid. Brief morning stratus will occur across parts of Central Texas near the Waco/Killeen/Temple areas as more moisture-rich air just below the LLJ remains. Even some patchy light/early morning fog is possible whenever extended lulls in wind speeds occur. The threat for strong to severe storms will also be displaced well to our north from northern Oklahoma into Kansas and Missouri while subsidence under the mid level ridge maintains rain-free weather around here.
High temperatures both days will average from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, with a few readings in the mid 90s across the higher terrain of our Big Country counties west of Hwy 281. A tight pressure gradient will maintain breezy south winds and an influx of humidity as low level moisture remains replenished from parcels moving northward from the GoM. This will result in low temperatures remaining elevated tomorrow morning with widespread upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, these conditions and green up from recent wet conditions will minimize any fire weather concerns.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion: Update: The forecast is in good shape and we will only make some minor hourly cloud adjustments based on the stratus currently moving through Central Texas. These clouds will lift and scatter as they spread northward, leaving plenty of sun this afternoon to push temps into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
79
Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Sunday night/
The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to limit fog production.
79
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/
Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near the Red River Tuesday night.
Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid- level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.
Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety this upcoming weekend.
Prater
AVIATION
/Issued 154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ /18z TAFs/
Similar to this past morning, the only challenge and concern for the midday aviation forecast will be timing and duration of IFR (possibly LIFR) cigs from 11z-14z, along with the possibility of an hour or two of MVFR vsbys whenever sustained wind speeds briefly drop off. All these concerns will be confined to Waco Regional Airport only, as a southerly LLJ around 1500 ft above the surface veers and weakens after 12z Monday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with little in the way of cloud cover are expected across most of the D10. S winds will average 12-16 kts with periodic gusts upward to 25 kts. No precipitation or weather impacts to the arrival or departure of commercial aircraft are anticipated at DFW/DAL.
05/Marty
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 92 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 5 10 Waco 69 90 73 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 69 89 70 87 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 Denton 72 90 72 89 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 McKinney 72 90 73 87 75 / 0 0 0 5 10 Dallas 72 91 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 70 89 72 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 70 88 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 69 90 72 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 70 92 73 90 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 239 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ Update: /Start Of The Week/
The previous short-term discussions below handle everything through tonight well and see no significant changes (more like a few tweaks) to the forecast.
Monday will be mostly a carbon-copy of today with an upper ridge keeping any mid level systems deflected well to the north of the area with subsidence keeping the area very breezy, warm, and humid. Brief morning stratus will occur across parts of Central Texas near the Waco/Killeen/Temple areas as more moisture-rich air just below the LLJ remains. Even some patchy light/early morning fog is possible whenever extended lulls in wind speeds occur. The threat for strong to severe storms will also be displaced well to our north from northern Oklahoma into Kansas and Missouri while subsidence under the mid level ridge maintains rain-free weather around here.
High temperatures both days will average from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, with a few readings in the mid 90s across the higher terrain of our Big Country counties west of Hwy 281. A tight pressure gradient will maintain breezy south winds and an influx of humidity as low level moisture remains replenished from parcels moving northward from the GoM. This will result in low temperatures remaining elevated tomorrow morning with widespread upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, these conditions and green up from recent wet conditions will minimize any fire weather concerns.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion: Update: The forecast is in good shape and we will only make some minor hourly cloud adjustments based on the stratus currently moving through Central Texas. These clouds will lift and scatter as they spread northward, leaving plenty of sun this afternoon to push temps into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
79
Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Sunday night/
The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to limit fog production.
79
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/
Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near the Red River Tuesday night.
Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid- level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.
Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety this upcoming weekend.
Prater
AVIATION
/Issued 154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ /18z TAFs/
Similar to this past morning, the only challenge and concern for the midday aviation forecast will be timing and duration of IFR (possibly LIFR) cigs from 11z-14z, along with the possibility of an hour or two of MVFR vsbys whenever sustained wind speeds briefly drop off. All these concerns will be confined to Waco Regional Airport only, as a southerly LLJ around 1500 ft above the surface veers and weakens after 12z Monday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with little in the way of cloud cover are expected across most of the D10. S winds will average 12-16 kts with periodic gusts upward to 25 kts. No precipitation or weather impacts to the arrival or departure of commercial aircraft are anticipated at DFW/DAL.
05/Marty
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 92 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 5 10 Waco 69 90 73 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 69 89 70 87 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 Denton 72 90 72 89 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 McKinney 72 90 73 87 75 / 0 0 0 5 10 Dallas 72 91 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 70 89 72 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 70 88 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 69 90 72 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 70 92 73 90 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KINJ HILLSBORO MUNI,TX | 15 sm | 23 min | SSE 12G15 | 10 sm | Clear | 91°F | 72°F | 53% | 29.86 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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