Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 7:08 PM Moonrise 3:24 AM   Moonset 3:35 PM

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FXUS65 KTWC 040857 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 157 AM MST Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny, warm, and dry to start the weekend. A dry weather system will bring stronger breezes to windy conditions with possible blowing dust on Sunday. Cooler Monday than temperatures warm up the remainder of next week with continued afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION
A Pacific weather system has started to move into the western coast states based on the latest satellite imagery.
Southeast Arizona will start to feel the impacts today with a little more breezier day compared to yesterday. Another ground hog's day of high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

By Sunday, the weather system will pass to the north and creating a tighter pressure gradient to bring strong gusty southwesterly winds. The latest guidance on speeds have come down slightly, but the probability of exceeding a gust greater than 45 mph is at least: 5% in Tucson; 22% Douglas; 46% Willcox; 59% Safford; and higher values along ridge tops and in valleys with southwest orientations. Overall, Southeast Arizona could experience sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Can't rule out blowing dust impacts in the afternoon due to fine dry soils around the region. This also leads to fire weather concerns because of the combinations of strong gusty winds, low relative humidities, and a high fire danger. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch is still in effect for Sunday morning to the evening.

Monday, the weather system will move out east and resulting in cooler daytime temperatures and stronger breezes, especially out east in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties.

For the rest of the week, temperatures will warm up back up to above seasonal normal with the continuation of afternoon breezes.

AVIATION
Valid through 05/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL and then clearing west to east after 04/20Z. SFC wind generally light and variable this morning.
After 04/19Z, SFC winds favoring SWLY/WLY at 10-16 kts and gusts up to 24 kts, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG and KALK. After 05/03Z, winds generally favoring SLY at less than 12 knots till the end of the forecast period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal through Sunday and then within a couple of degrees of normal next week. Today, 20-ft winds will generally be 15-20 mph with min RHs values of single digits to teens in the valleys and in the teens for the mountains. By Sunday, dry weather system will move to our north, resulting in windy southwest winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 40-45 mph across most of southeast Arizona. Breezy afternoon and early evening conditions then persist much of next week, especially to the east of Tucson. Min RHs values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values generally in the teens for the mountains.

On Sunday, the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low relative humidity levels, and a high fire danger rating will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions from the late morning through early evening hours. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of southeast Arizona from 11 am to 7 pm MST Sunday.



TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ150>154.

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