Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Byram, MS
May 15, 2024 2:08 PM CDT (19:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 11:52 AM Moonset 12:59 AM |
FXUS64 KJAN 151740 AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1240 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
New AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
An upper trough is departing this morning, pushing across the midsouth,ushering in some drier air in the wake. Heights are rising today as upper ridging begins to build in, which will keep conditions quiet today. Temperatures should rise into mid 80s across much of the area this afternoon under plenty of sunshine./SAS/
DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Today and Tonight:
Quiet weather is expected across the area today and tonight as shortwave ridging aloft and a weak surface high pressure system are centered over the area today. Winds will be variable as that high slides through, and those light winds may allow for some patchy light fog to develop either early this morning or early Thursday morning. /NF/
Thursday through Tuesday:
An active period is expected for the beginning of the extended forecast as a few shortwaves migrate across the area Thursday and Friday, bringing potential severe weather and flash flooding to the ArkLaMiss region. A weak cold front is expected push towards the southern CONUS, helping clear out the shortwave disturbances by Saturday evening. From Sunday into the new week, a warming trend is expected as an amplified ridge build over the area.
As a longwave trough axis near TX Panhandle progresses eastward, a developing low pressure and associated cold front embedded in the longwave through is expected to push towards the southeast region on Thursday. Ahead of the cold front, a few shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse over the area, bringing shower and thunderstorm potential for the CWA as decent moisture and instability will be present. Current Euro/GFS models have come into better agreement in showing the aforementioned shortwave disturbances tracking across the area Thursday evening through Friday evening.
In terms of severe weather potential, dewpoints in the upper 60s, lapse rate near 7.0 C/km, bulk shear of 50-60 kts will help support organized convection for both days. However Friday evening is looking to be more favorable for severe weather as CAPE values increase to 2000-3000 J/kg and dewpoints increase to the lower 70s.
As a result, SPC has outlook a "Slight" risk for parts of the CWA on Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible and the HWO graphics will continue to highlight this risk.
In addition to possible severe weather, flash flooding potential is increasing. With a moist airmass in place (dewpoints reaching lower 70s), PW values near 1.6 to 2.0 could help to produce some heavy downpours. Along with PW values, IVT (integrated water vapor transport) vectors are showing to be near the 98th percentile, resulting in shower/thunderstorm activity moving over the same parts of the area, creating a training effect and leading to possible flash flooding in those areas. Rainfall totals are estimated to be to 1-2.5in north of I-20 and 2.5-5in south of I-20 with possible 6- 6.5in near the Pine Belt. WPC has included a "Moderate" risk for flash flooding on Thursday evening through Friday evening. An updated "HWO" graphic will include these changes.
Come Saturday evening, the weak cold front is expected to exit the area, bringing rain chances to an end and begin a drying period.
Post frontal passage, a ridge pattern will begin to build over the area and gradually amplify heading into the next week. A warming trend is expected as a result of the amplifying ridge, bringing high temperatures into the lower 90s to close out the period. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period for most sites under mostly clear skies. Some patchy fog is possible at HBG and PIB but should clear quickly as the sun rises. High clouds will begin to build into the area Thursday ahead of our next system.
Winds will be light from the NNW around 5 to 10 mph, shifting Thursday to the SSE./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 62 88 66 83 / 0 0 70 80 Meridian 61 89 65 84 / 0 0 60 90 Vicksburg 63 88 66 83 / 0 10 80 70 Hattiesburg 63 89 68 85 / 0 0 60 80 Natchez 63 88 65 83 / 0 10 80 70 Greenville 66 88 68 83 / 0 10 70 70 Greenwood 63 88 67 82 / 0 10 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1240 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
New AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
An upper trough is departing this morning, pushing across the midsouth,ushering in some drier air in the wake. Heights are rising today as upper ridging begins to build in, which will keep conditions quiet today. Temperatures should rise into mid 80s across much of the area this afternoon under plenty of sunshine./SAS/
DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Today and Tonight:
Quiet weather is expected across the area today and tonight as shortwave ridging aloft and a weak surface high pressure system are centered over the area today. Winds will be variable as that high slides through, and those light winds may allow for some patchy light fog to develop either early this morning or early Thursday morning. /NF/
Thursday through Tuesday:
An active period is expected for the beginning of the extended forecast as a few shortwaves migrate across the area Thursday and Friday, bringing potential severe weather and flash flooding to the ArkLaMiss region. A weak cold front is expected push towards the southern CONUS, helping clear out the shortwave disturbances by Saturday evening. From Sunday into the new week, a warming trend is expected as an amplified ridge build over the area.
As a longwave trough axis near TX Panhandle progresses eastward, a developing low pressure and associated cold front embedded in the longwave through is expected to push towards the southeast region on Thursday. Ahead of the cold front, a few shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse over the area, bringing shower and thunderstorm potential for the CWA as decent moisture and instability will be present. Current Euro/GFS models have come into better agreement in showing the aforementioned shortwave disturbances tracking across the area Thursday evening through Friday evening.
In terms of severe weather potential, dewpoints in the upper 60s, lapse rate near 7.0 C/km, bulk shear of 50-60 kts will help support organized convection for both days. However Friday evening is looking to be more favorable for severe weather as CAPE values increase to 2000-3000 J/kg and dewpoints increase to the lower 70s.
As a result, SPC has outlook a "Slight" risk for parts of the CWA on Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible and the HWO graphics will continue to highlight this risk.
In addition to possible severe weather, flash flooding potential is increasing. With a moist airmass in place (dewpoints reaching lower 70s), PW values near 1.6 to 2.0 could help to produce some heavy downpours. Along with PW values, IVT (integrated water vapor transport) vectors are showing to be near the 98th percentile, resulting in shower/thunderstorm activity moving over the same parts of the area, creating a training effect and leading to possible flash flooding in those areas. Rainfall totals are estimated to be to 1-2.5in north of I-20 and 2.5-5in south of I-20 with possible 6- 6.5in near the Pine Belt. WPC has included a "Moderate" risk for flash flooding on Thursday evening through Friday evening. An updated "HWO" graphic will include these changes.
Come Saturday evening, the weak cold front is expected to exit the area, bringing rain chances to an end and begin a drying period.
Post frontal passage, a ridge pattern will begin to build over the area and gradually amplify heading into the next week. A warming trend is expected as a result of the amplifying ridge, bringing high temperatures into the lower 90s to close out the period. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period for most sites under mostly clear skies. Some patchy fog is possible at HBG and PIB but should clear quickly as the sun rises. High clouds will begin to build into the area Thursday ahead of our next system.
Winds will be light from the NNW around 5 to 10 mph, shifting Thursday to the SSE./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 62 88 66 83 / 0 0 70 80 Meridian 61 89 65 84 / 0 0 60 90 Vicksburg 63 88 66 83 / 0 10 80 70 Hattiesburg 63 89 68 85 / 0 0 60 80 Natchez 63 88 65 83 / 0 10 80 70 Greenville 66 88 68 83 / 0 10 70 70 Greenwood 63 88 67 82 / 0 10 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHKS HAWKINS FIELD,MS | 8 sm | 15 min | WNW 09G20 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 59°F | 45% | 29.87 | |
| KJAN JACKSONMEDGAR WILEY EVERS INTL,MS | 11 sm | 14 min | NW 10G17 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 57°F | 40% | 29.86 | |
| KJVW JOHN BELL WILLIAMS,MS | 11 sm | 13 min | NW 08G16 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 29.87 | ||||
| KMBO BRUCE CAMPBELL FIELD,MS | 17 sm | 13 min | W 06G14 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 64°F | 55% | 29.86 |
Jackson/Brandon, MS,
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