Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 7:09 PM Moonrise 4:26 AM   Moonset 5:54 PM

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FXUS65 KTWC 060836 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 136 AM MST Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Today will be the coolest day of the week with less wind compared to Sunday, though still breezy. Breezy to locally windy conditions, especially east of Tucson will continue for much of the remainder of the week as temperatures warm up.

DISCUSSION
A fairly typical early May weather pattern this week for southeast Arizona with dry conditions and breezy to at times locally windy conditions. For today, the most noticeable change will be the cooler temperatures with highs for valley locations in the lower 80s. The trough that brought the winds on Sunday is pushing to our east but the gradients will be tight enough for breezy conditions, especially near the New Mexico border.

As the region remains under dry westerly flow with deep layer mixing each day as weak disturbances passing to our north, the most noticeable aspect of our weather this week will continue to be the afternoon breezes. Winds will tick up Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for some fire weather concerns on Wednesday east of Tucson. More on that in the fire weather discussion below.
Otherwise, after the brief cooldown on Monday, temperatures will rebound up to seasonable levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

For the end of the week into the weekend, winds will drop back down slightly resembling more typical afternoon gustiness for this time of year as temperatures warm to levels a few degrees above normal.



AVIATION
Valid through 07/12Z.
Skies generally SKC through the forecast period. Sfc winds variable and less than 12kts thru 06/18Z, then becoming WLY/NWLY at 8-16 kts and gusts to around 25 kts from 06/18Z thru 07/03Z, with the strongest SFC winds east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG, KALK and KSAD. SFC winds then taper off, becoming less than 12 kts through the end of the valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Slightly cooler temperatures today as high briefly drop to below normal levels following the dry weather system that moved through the region. Temperatures then remain near to slightly above normal into the weekend. Breezy afternoon and early evening winds will persist much of this week, especially to the east of Tucson. Winds on Tuesday will approach critical levels Tuesday near the New Mexico border but the duration and geographical scope don't warrant the issuance of fire weather headlines at this time. Winds have trended up a bit more for Wednesday, so if these trends hold, later shifts will need to consider fire weather headlines for locales east of Tucson. Otherwise, min RH values this week in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values generally in the teens for the mountains.



TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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