Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 11:40 PM   Moonset 8:23 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 280834 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 334 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Through tonight: We remain in a warm southerly flow regime this morning with a moderate surface pressure gradient between a potent storm system over the Plains and ridging along the Atlantic coast. Within this regime, low stratus clouds are increasing early this morning and may remain a bit more prolific into the daytime than yesterday. However, with increasing mixing they should lift by late morning into this afternoon. Scattered showers or perhaps a storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon across southeast MS, where a ribbon of greater mid level moisture is forecast to lift across the area. Most areas will remain dry through the day, though. Once again, due to the surface pressure gradient and deep mixing up to near 800 mb, winds will be gusty at times through the day. We will continue to advertise a limited threat for gradient wind gusts, but gusts are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Through the day, the upper trough to our west will progress eastward, with the associated surface cyclone lifting northward toward the upper Midwest into tonight. Convection is expected to occur today ahead of the trailing cold front from coastal Texas through the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. As these storms progress eastward into tonight, they will begin to reach our southeast AR and northeast LA areas during the overnight hours. Recent runs of the HRRR have brought these storms into the area notably earlier than most other solutions, but these runs have been quite consistent. Given this, we will continue to hedge the beginning of the severe threat to as early as around midnight for our westernmost areas. In terms of hazards, the overnight timing increases the likelihood that convective mode will mainly be linear, most favoring damaging wind potential. However, mid level lapse rates are forecast to be rather steep, so large hail will also be possible. In addition, with respectable low level SRH forecast, tornadoes will also be possible, especially for any discrete cells or line segments that surge more northeastward in better alignment with marginally supportive 0-3 km bulk shear vectors. /DL/

Monday through early next week...

Our area will continue to see no real airmass change through the week under the influence of a late spring regime. Intermittent disturbances keep rain and storm chances through the forecast period, with the primary focus on a system Monday. Strong to severe storms and heavy rain appear probable, thus a slight/marginal risk and limited risk have been highlighted for severe and flood respectively. Right entrance region of the mid- upper jet will provide largescale ascent over the area as a shortwave pushes across the area Monday. Convection will be ongoing Sunday night into early Monday morning, mainly west of the River, and this activity will pose a threat for damaging winds and possibly a brief weak tornado. There exists some uncertainty regarding the evolution of this complex given boundary parallel flow and tendency for cold pool dominance. However, the shortwave and associated speed max could enhance organization. At least a brief window for cold pool driven damaging wind gusts appears probable, especially further west. In addition, PWAT in excess of 1.5 inches and deep warm cloud layer will result in efficient rainfall rates, thus a flash flood threat also appears possible.

Warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the period under the influence of broad upper ridging with intermittent disturbances. These disturbances should continue to support rain and storm chances throughout the week, though nothing of significance is likely. Late week, a weak cold front could bring slightly cooler temperatures, especially north of HWY 82, though significant airmass change is unlikely./SAS/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions prevail across most of the region early this morning, but an MVFR stratus deck has begun to develop and will expand through the morning hours. VFR conditions will return by late morning as these clouds mix out. During the day, S/SE winds will be gusty at times with some gusts to near 30 kt possible.
Isolated SHRA or TS cannot be ruled out but most sites will remain dry. Later in the evening, MVFR stratus will begin to redevelop and expand into Sunday night with increasing chances for SHRA and TS late. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 84 67 78 62 / 20 40 90 60 Meridian 85 63 83 62 / 30 10 60 70 Vicksburg 87 66 75 64 / 10 60 90 40 Hattiesburg 84 66 82 64 / 20 10 70 60 Natchez 86 65 77 64 / 10 60 90 40 Greenville 85 67 73 63 / 10 90 100 30 Greenwood 85 67 75 63 / 20 60 90 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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