Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:26 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 300032 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 732 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Decaying MCS from this morning continues to be our main controlling feature and it has kept temps down and storms/precip has been way earlier in the day. As noted earlier, this feature has also used up instability and most moisture (lower level transport) so recovery looks to be a challenge. 12z Hi-res guidance continued to struggle with initialization, thus very poor performance in the initial 12-18hrs. However, the latest Hrrr (17z) seems to finally have a better handle. As a result, there looks to be some showery activity in the tonight period, but it's a good bit less than prev runs indicated...thus lowered PoPs from guidance to better illustrate this. Will keep some low end mention of thunder across the E third as there seems to be sufficient instability along with some decent forcing as the upper features moves east overnight.

Moving into Tue/Wed...there may be some patchy fog in the S/SW and W but confidence is not too high as lower clouds may limited that potential. Overall, drier deep layer will be in place in the wake of the system today and that should keep the area precip free.

Moisture returns for Thursday as return flow gets established and we see this show up with a warm front like boundary translating northward across the area. We will see the bulk of the short wave energy to our N, but some waves will exist in the zonal type flow regime. This introduces more uncertainty as these smaller scale features will drive our local weather. First feature of note looks to be on Thu. Most of the guidance shows this well at 700mb and this could be just enough, and if timed right will daytime heating, to support some strong to severe convection. This is day 4, so we have some time to see how things go and how prev days (Wed) convection may have any influence. Overall, just a period to watch.

Rain chances will remain in at least some part of the forecast area Thursday through the weekend. This is in part due to decent moisture making a return and favorable SW low level flow keeping the trajectories in light to maintain. As noted about Thursday and the potential short wave, the remainder of the forecast looks to see something similar. Each day looks to be warm and some variation of decent lapse rates around (typical for this time of year) so the area looks to see decent instability develop. The key will be timing the waves with heating or if a more robust wave develops. We also look to keep a surface boundary near the area (it could waver in/out) but this would also provide a potential focus for precip/storms. Overall, a good bit of uncertainty exists from Friday into early next week as variability is quite high in the guidance suite. Nonetheless, it's a period of days where we will need to keep an eye on. Nothing looks like any widespread or all day type stuff, but potential is in play to keep 20-60% type PoPs. The forecast will get refined as we get closer. /CME/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Most TAF sites are VFR this evening and this will continue into the evening hours. Stratus will develop overnight and expect a mix of VFR/IFR and possibly LIFR conditions. Expect the fog/stratus to lift after 14-15Z on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 63 82 60 87 / 40 0 0 10 Meridian 62 84 59 88 / 70 0 0 0 Vicksburg 64 83 61 88 / 20 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 64 85 61 89 / 50 0 0 10 Natchez 63 85 61 87 / 20 0 0 20 Greenville 64 82 62 86 / 30 0 0 10 Greenwood 64 82 60 87 / 50 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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