Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:39 AM

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FXUS64 KSHV 290730 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tornado Watch #160 is valid through 3am for Grant, Winn, LaSalle and Caldwell Parishes in Northeast/North Central Louisiana. Flood Watch is still in effect now until Noon for the southeast half of the Four State Region. Cancelled the northwest half of the Flood Watch with this morning forecast package and it's possible that the remaining Flood Watch can be cancelled earlier than Noon today across our southeast half.

Leading edge of a LEWP was beginning to accelerate south and east through our eastern most zones early this morning and this is where there will continue to be a wind/isolated tornado threat for at least one more hour before these threats shift south and east of our region. Likewise, this will be a continued flood threat through at least the mid morning hours with another inch or two of precipitation possible with lighter amounts further north and west.

Will need to watch for some patchy dense fog early this morning across our western half as the clearing line has made it into NC Texas a little faster than progs would indicate, otherwise, look for a short drying trend to commence later today, through tonight and through all but our far southern zones on Tuesday. Introduced small chance pops mainly south of the I-20 Corridor for Tue as there is some indication that a remnant boundary or front will begin returning back northward during the day that could act as a forcing mechanism with daytime heating for at least isolated convection south of the I-20 Corridor. Otherwise, did not stray too far from NBM temps through the short term portion of the forecast.

13

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The drying trend is short lived unfortunately as more significant rainfall is back in the forecast for later this week.

The Southern Plains returns to southwest flow aloft with a developing longwave trough carving its way into the Intermountain West. This flow will only amplify as strong upper ridging remains anchored across the Southeast U.S. and into the Appalachians.
Upstream disturbances in this southwest flow aloft will likely provide the upper forcing necessary, combined with plentiful Gulf of Mexico moisture and you have the ingredients for locally heavy rainfall once again. Convection should be isolated to scattered in coverage Wed thru Wed Night with the first impulse likely impacting our region Thu into Thu Night with another close on its heels during the day Friday. NBM is a little drier than one would think with another stronger disturbance moving our way Sat into Sat Night per the GFS but have followed it's lead for now.
Needless to say this late week system has the potential to become another flood maker with severe weather probabilities a little less certain.

13

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For the 29/06Z TAFs, the line of showers and strong storms is continuing to progress slowly east across the ArkLaTex. TXK, TYR and GGG should see RA coming to and end within the next few hours.
TSRA will continue to impact terminals east, gradually ending towards dawn or the morning hours for our furthest southeast airspace. MVFR CIGs look to descend to IFR levels towards dawn behind the departing storms before finally climbing back to VFR heights and clearing during the afternoon. South winds will become variable and lighter behind the storms overnight, eventually becoming more westerly and northwesterly tomorrow as a surface boundary passes through the region. Gusts of up to 25 kts will be possible early in the forecast period but will quickly drop off behind the departing storms.

/26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 65 87 68 / 30 0 10 10 MLU 78 64 84 64 / 90 10 10 10 DEQ 82 58 84 61 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 82 61 86 65 / 20 0 0 10 ELD 78 60 85 61 / 60 10 0 10 TYR 83 64 86 69 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 83 63 86 67 / 10 0 10 10 LFK 85 65 86 68 / 20 0 30 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ005-006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for TXZ152-153-165>167.

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