Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:57 AM   Moonset 6:59 PM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 933 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Showers and tstms likely. Fri night - W winds 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sun - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 933 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Friday bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

FXUS62 KCHS 080144 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 944 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Friday bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short-wave ridging will continue to build into the southeast region and overhead during the overnight hours. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure prevails, with a subtle lee side trough in place.

Overall, quiet conditions are anticipated tonight, with two possible exceptions. The first is convection over and near the southern Appalachians. Guidance is not handling this activity, so we'll definitely need to keep an eye on it, since the Corfidi Vectors-Forward Propagation does have a steering flow into our area. That said, increasing CINH, decreasing MLCAPE, and subsidence should prevent it from getting here. So we maintain a rainfree forecast.

Second will be the possibility of some low stratus/fog attempting to advect in from the south-southwest closer to daybreak. All available guidance keeps it south of the Altamaha River, so no mention in the forecast.

Very mild temperatures, by early May standards through the night. We're some 5-10F degrees warmer than the same time last night, so we're only looking at lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, even a little warmer near the coast. This is around 6-10F degrees above climo, and within a degree or two of record high minimums for May 8th.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Wednesday and Wednesday night: The upper ridge axis will shift offshore and the upper pattern will flatten out a bit. At the surface, subtropical high pressure will continue to extend westward into the forecast area and drive southwest flow for much of the day.
Skies should remain mostly clear, with just a muted cumulus field expected, and model soundings are definitely not supportive of any diurnal convection. Therefore, we have kept the forecast dry. The main story will be temperatures. Low-level thickness values will be supportive of widespread low 90s, with a few mid 90s possible for interior southeast Georgia. Daily record highs are definitely in play (see Climate section below). Fortunately, dew points should mix out pretty well which will keep heat index values solidly below triple digits. Overnight, expect dry and mild conditions with lows only falling into the upper 60s and low 70s.

Thursday through Friday: Forecast difficulty and potential impact will increase for the Thursday and Friday time period. Thursday is expected to begin with a cold front situated well upstream, back across the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. The first part of the day should be similar to the last few days with high pressure still the main feature across the forecast area leading to southwest flow and warm conditions. Some degree of convection should be ongoing across east TN, western NC, north GA, and northern AL. The forecast for the afternoon and evening will hinge greatly on the strength, position, and timing of this upstream convection and its possible downstream propagation to the Southeast coast. This time period is now starting fall within the hi-res model run window, and model solutions range from a strong (likely severe) squall line progressing across the forecast area in the afternoon and evening hours to little to no convection at all (favoring timing more into Thursday night and Friday). With temperatures warming again into the low to possibly mid 90s, there could be moderate destabilization in the presence of strengthening mid-level flow ahead of any potential convective line Thursday afternoon and evening. Lapse rates steepen and nearly unidirectional 0-6 km shear on the order of 40-50 knots could set the stage for a large hail and damaging wind threat. The area remains within SPC's Day 3 Slight Risk area and we will continue to highlight the severe potential despite the uncertainties discussed. The cold front isn't expected to clear the area until later on Friday, and until it does we could see rounds of convection Thursday night and again early Friday. Given increased cloud cover and the effects of convection, Friday temperatures are expected to be cooler. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The cold front will push well offshore Friday night, followed by high pressure for Saturday. A weak boundary will pass by Saturday night, with more high pressure for Sunday. A nice airmass change is expected Saturday, with dry conditions and highs right around normal. A modest warm up for Sunday will bring temperatures back above normal by a few degrees. The forecast becomes more uncertain early next week as model guidance suggests that southern stream energy could move across the Deep South along a residual boundary.
Conditions could end up becoming quite unsettled, or the bulk of the rainfall and convection could slide south of the area.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through 00Z Thursday. All sites will experience wind gusts around 15-20 kt Wednesday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Primarily VFR. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late Thursday through Friday.

MARINE
Tonight: Atlantic high pressure will continue across the local waters, resulting in S and SW winds up to 10 or 15 kt and gusty.
Seas will average 2-3 feet early on, then build a foot overnight.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure positioned to the east of the local waters will maintain moderate south to southwest flow on Wednesday. Winds and seas will then start to pick up later on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will then shift offshore Friday and Friday night. Portions of the waters could experience marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions ahead of, and immediately behind, the passing front. Conditions will then improve through the weekend with winds and seas both remaining well below advisory thresholds. Another forecast issue for the local waters will be the potential for strong thunderstorms Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. The timing of thunderstorms remains unclear for this time, but any storms that do develop and move across the waters will be capable of producing strong wind gusts.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The upcoming New Moon (May 8) and recent Perigee (May 5) will lead to elevated astronomical tides over the next few days.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties, including downtown Charleston, during the evening high tides Wednesday and Thursday.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures: May 8: KCHS: 93/1986 KSAV: 96/1986

May 9: KCHS: 95/1963 KSAV: 95/1962

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Beaufort
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:04 AM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:17 AM EDT     8.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     -1.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:39 PM EDT     9.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Beaufort, Beaufort River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Jenkins Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:48 AM EDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:38 PM EDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:09 PM EDT     8.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jenkins Creek, 1 mi. above entrance, Morgan River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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