Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 1:01 AM   Moonset 12:56 PM

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FXUS64 KJAN 311123 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 623 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Today and tonight...Showers and thunderstorms are working there way eastward across area, mainly south of I-20 this morning as a weakening MCV moves eastward. The severe threat is minimal as the storms will continue to move east and weaken over the next few hours. Another strong short wave will move across the area this afternoon through the evening hours. This will kick off yet another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. Lapse rates will be marginal at 5.0-5.5 c/km, but with possible some afternoon heating and MU capes of around 1000-2000 j/kg, a few storms could become strong to severe, especially over the western portions of the area. A marginal/slight risk is already in affect for the area. The showers/storms will continue through tonight into Saturday. Flash flooding may begin to become a problem especially overnight into Saturday. Highs today will climb into eh mid/upper 80s, with overnight lows mostly in the mid/upper 60s./15/

Saturday through next Friday...

The threat for severe weather and the potential for flash flooding will continue through most of the period. Global guidance show the sfc low tracking northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, on the southern peripheral of this sfc low, a trailing cold front will stall over the northwest portions of our forecast area through Saturday evening. As the cold front continues to stall over northwest, model consensus shows a QLCS developing over southeast AR, northeast LA and parts of western MS around early Saturday morning. As we head into late Saturday morning, the QLCS will start to track southeast across central MS. Both the Euro and the GFS show the QLCS continuing to push further south of our forecast area by Saturday afternoon/evening. The combination of daytime heating of our warm moist airmass, subtle shortwaves and the stalled cold front will help maintain a threat for isolated severe storms across central MS. The highlighted Marginal Risk has been extended further south to include areas along and south of the I-59 corridor. Primary risk with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size. A few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

In addition to the severe potential, PWAT values up to 2.0 inches will support some storms producing locally heavy downpours at times through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts between 2-4 inches of rain will be possible across our forecast area with locally higher amounts possible. No changes have been made to the flash flood graphic and a Limited Risk for heavy rainfall has been maintained for our CWA Expect updates to the severe/flash flooding graphics as we continue to monitor trends and forecast confidence starts to increase. Microbursts producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain will be a possibility through the middle of next week. Storm chances will continue through Wednesday as temperatures and moisture increase as low-level flow increase across the southeast US bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and storms across our CWA Another cold front will approach the area heading into Thursday. This will result in the potential for heavy rain and strong to isolated severe storms each day. Future guidance shows rain chances coming to an end on Friday as the cold front tracks further south out of our CWA and into the Gulf Coast giving us a small break from the rain. /CR/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

ALL TAF sites are VFR this morning, and expect these conditions to continue through the morning hours. Another round showers/storms will develop this afternoon and continue through the evening hours. As the storms move across TAF sites expect tempo MVFR/IFR conditions. Thunderstorms chances will continue through the night across the area. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 87 69 83 69 / 50 40 90 40 Meridian 90 68 83 67 / 20 40 90 60 Vicksburg 86 68 83 70 / 70 50 90 40 Hattiesburg 90 71 85 69 / 20 40 90 50 Natchez 85 68 83 69 / 80 50 90 30 Greenville 84 70 83 70 / 70 70 80 40 Greenwood 87 69 83 69 / 50 60 90 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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