Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 1:31 AM   Moonset 11:30 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 010156 AAB AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 856 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 854 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Rest of Tonight...Weak ridging aloft and surface high pressure will maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight. While some patchy fog and low stratus will be possible across the area toward day break Wednesday, especially south of the Interstate 20 corridor, skies will remain mostly clear overnight. Lows will be slightly warmer tonight, compared to last night, as they range from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape. Other than some minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major changes will be made on this evening's forecast update. /19/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Through Wednesday: Dry conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday as shortwave upper ridging and a surface high pressure axis extend along the East Coast. Though much of the low level moisture that resulted in fog this morning is expected to have eroded today, there may still be enough for patchy fog in some areas late tonight into tomorrow morning. Guidance has continued to trend away from the possibility of a convective complex over the Plains moving into our area on tomorrow, so rain chances have now been removed from the forecast. Considerable sun is expected with above average temps in the offing.

Thursday through next Tuesday: As broad upper troughing expands eastward toward our region through the end of the week, increasing deep layer moisture and a series of upper shortwaves will result in a more active pattern with periodic chances for rain. The first such disturbance will approach Thursday, with a somewhat better chance for convection originating to our west to move into the area before likely weakening as it encounters stronger ridging further eastward. A similar situation may play out Thursday night into Friday. Heading into this weekend, the surface ridge axis will shift more southward, with the higher rain chances becoming oriented over the northern half of the area and drier conditions as you get closer to the Gulf Coast. Rain development may also become more diurnal in nature, with higher rain chances in the afternoons. The surface ridge is expected to build early next week, further limiting higher rain chances to north of the area with only isolated PoPs lingering across north MS and AR by Monday and Tuesday. Outside of disruption from clouds and rain, temperatures will continue a trend toward summerlike.

Sufficient instability and deep shear may coincide at times for thunderstorms late this week into early next week to be strong to severe, but at this time there is not a specific favored time period for organized severe weather. Any potential will be largely driven by mesoscale features that are still too far out in time to resolve. /DL/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through the remainder of this evening. Toward day break Wednesday, patchy fog is possible across the Pine Belt, which could briefly result in visibilities, and potentially ceilings, falling to MVFR/IFR categories through 13Z. Flight categories will quickly rebound after sunrise, as any fog the indeed develops begins to erode.
Winds will become calm to light with an easterly component overnight. They will then increase from the east and southeast at around 5 knots by Wednesday afternoon. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 61 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 60 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 61 89 65 84 / 0 0 0 30 Hattiesburg 62 90 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 61 89 65 83 / 0 10 0 30 Greenville 63 87 66 84 / 0 0 0 30 Greenwood 63 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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