Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:49 AM   Moonset 4:36 PM

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FXUS64 KSHV 051953 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 253 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The decaying thunderstorm complex moving from west to the east across the Four State Region this morning temporarily stabilized the airmass across a majority of the coverage area and there is currently little in the way of convection (although showers and storms continue to our north, east, and south). There still is a good chance that at least isolated showers and storms will get going later this afternoon through early this evening as the atmosphere continues to recover and destabilize with temperatures getting into the upper 70s and lower 80s. At least a few strong storms producing small hail, frequent lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible given marginal wind shear and respectable instability, but the potential for severe thunderstorms remains low / marginal.

Convection should dwindle later this evening due to the lack of synoptic lift and fading instability, leaving a warmer than average and somewhat muggy night. Lows should generally be in the lower to mid 60s with low clouds and patchy fog building very late tonight and then breaking up several hours after sunrise tomorrow morning. Widespread dense fog is not very likely given the setup and latest short term model guidance.

The southern edge of a vigorous upper level disturbance is still expected to pass through the Southern Plains and Middle MS Valley tomorrow, likely sparking an outbreak of severe thunderstorms to the NW of our region late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. The influx of additional deep Gulf moisture on building southerly flow tomorrow afternoon should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our coverage area, although the ingredients for severe thunderstorm production will be much less than will be the case to our NW. That said, strong storms will be possible and a stray severe storm cannot be ruled out in any areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorm extending into locations NW of the I-30 corridor and this is mainly to cover the potential for severe storms along and north of the Red River congealing into a squall line that could effect those areas tomorrow night. All severe weather hazards will be possible with that potential squall line in those areas, but it is important to emphasize the potential for significant severe weather is definitely concentrated to the NW and west of those areas. Otherwise, expect high temperatures tomorrow in the lower to mid 80s with lows tomorrow night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /50/

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The main concern in the long range period of the forecast (Tuesday into next weekend) is the potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall, mainly Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night - and again Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Also of some concern is oppressive (for the time of year) heat Tuesday through Thursday. During this latter period, many locations at least along and south of I-20 will likely have temperatures peak in the range of 90 to 93 degrees with peak heat index values pushing the triple digits at least briefly. This kind of heat is very typical of the summer, but could be hazardous for some folks given our bodies will not yet have had a chance yet to acclimatize.

As alluded to above, the heat will be building on Tuesday and will contribute to moderate to high atmospheric instability. The Storm Prediction Center is advertising at least some risk of severe storms north of I-20 on Tuesday due to the outside potential for vigorous convection to fire up on a boundary lingering from the Monday night convection. However, NWP and blended model guidance is less than bullish about thunderstorm chances in these areas those days and the official forecast has rain chances only ranging from 10 to 20 percent. We will have to continue to monitor trends for Tuesday, but at this point the larger threat from storms looks to come Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. On those days, a series of disturbances coming through in fast westerlies aloft gradually should push a cold front south through the area over the course of 24 to 36 hours. The synoptic lift from these disturbances, plus lift from the front, should promote the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in an environment of at least moderate instability and wind shear. One to three inches of rainfall (with isolated higher amounts) will be possible in at least central and northern zones over this period. Given the saturated nature of the ground, this sort of rainfall possible in a short time period could cause flooding issues.

Once the front clears the area to the south by early Friday, confidence in the weather remaining quiet for more than a few days is not great. While the passage of the front should bring temperatures back to slightly below or near normal, there are hints at another large incoming disturbance to potentially bring thunderstorms back into the forecast before the coming weekend is totally done. There are some NWP discrepancies this far out in the forecast, but the early next week time period will be something to watch. /50/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

One round of showers continues just east of KELD and into Northeast Louisiana but should exit to the northeast within the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Additional scattered convection may develop this afternoon, which could affect any TAF site. If any showers or thunderstorms develop, they should end by 06/03z. However, more scattered precip is possibly late in the period after daybreak Monday morning. Flight conditions are highly variable across the region. A brief improvement into VFR range is possible, mainly at terminals south of Interstate 20 across Texas and Louisiana. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are gradually expected to return during the nighttime hours and should persist through the end of the period.

CN

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 84 74 89 / 20 50 10 10 MLU 66 85 71 89 / 40 40 10 10 DEQ 63 81 67 84 / 30 50 50 10 TXK 66 84 71 88 / 30 50 30 10 ELD 63 83 68 88 / 40 50 20 10 TYR 68 84 72 87 / 20 30 10 0 GGG 67 83 72 88 / 20 40 10 0 LFK 67 85 72 90 / 20 30 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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