Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 5:42 AM   Moonset 8:20 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 081910 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 210 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 143 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Through Thursday night/

An active afternoon and evening is in store for portions of North and Central Texas as scattered storms are expected to develop ahead and along a dryline/cold front. At 1 pm, surface analysis show the cold front just to our northwest near Wichita Falls and the dryline ahead of the front farther east and southwest. These should continue to move eastward through the evening as the associated shortwave moves across the southern Plains. The combination of both boundaries and efficient surface heating should eventually break the cap resulting in the development of scattered storms. We are monitoring two areas for convective initialization over the next 2-4 hours. First: There is a 20% chance of isolated storms across western Central TX, closer to the dryline. Second: areas across the northeast closer to the cold front/dryline intersection should see storms develop around 5-6 pm. Latest high-res models are in fairly good agreement that storms will develop south like a zipper along the boundary through the evening. Areas generally near/east of I-35W and north of I-20 still have the best chance to see storms and severe weather. Given a highly unstable environment with steep lapse rates and 70s dewpoints (resulting in 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. There is a potential for the hail to exceed 3 inches in diameter in some areas. While the tornado threat is lower over our area due to slightly weaker low-level shear and veered flow, boundaries can interact with each other and increase this threat. Most of the activity should be east and outside of our area between midnight and 2 am, but cloudy and patchy fog conditions are anticipated for areas south of I-20 as the front becomes nearly stationary.

Thursday's storm chances will be highly dependent on where the surface boundary settles overnight. However, most of the high-res guidance is showing the potential for scattered storms pretty much anywhere across North and Central Texas in the afternoon and evening. Due to uncertainty on exactly when and where storms will develop, PoPs have been capped to 30-40%. Like today, ingredients will be present for severe storms. Furthermore, forecast instability appears to be even higher which may increase the coverage and threat for very large hail and damaging winds.
Forecast details will continue to be adjusted as new data arrives.

Otherwise, a very warm afternoon is expected today with many locations reaching low/mid 90s. For tomorrow, the clouds and rain may keep daytime highs ranging from the upper 70s and low 80s in North Texas and up to upper 80s in Central Texas.

Sanchez

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday and Beyond/

As surface high pressure settles over North and Central Texas behind the Thursday cold front, drier and cooler air will usher in a pleasant start to the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s both Friday and Saturday. As the surface ridge shifts east toward the SE CONUS Gulf Coast, east-northeasterly winds will veer more southeasterly by the latter half of the weekend beginning a period of gradual moisture return. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may return to our western Central Texas and Big Country counties as soon as late Saturday evening as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level low.

More widespread rain chances are expected Sunday as the aforementioned upper low shifts toward the Southern Plains region. With little to no surface-based instability present, thunderstorms will likely remain elevated through Sunday and offer primarily a small hail and heavy rain threat. The severe weather threat may ramp up some as we shift into Monday. Medium-range guidance suggests the upper trough will shift over Oklahoma/Kansas helping send a northwest-southeast moving cold front through our forecast area Monday. Upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase instability over the warm sector. Deep layer shear does look sufficient for organized storm structures capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts, so make sure to keep up with the forecast through the weekend as we further refine timing and location details. More so, the threat for localized flash flooding may increase in the Sunday-Monday timeframe with latest guidance highlighting a 30-40% chance that already water-logged locations across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could see an additional 2+" of rainfall during this timeframe.

Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic pattern increases. However, it does appear that the subtropical jet will remain active over the Southern Plains well into the extended period. And with sufficient moisture remaining in place (dependent on the Monday system), that is enough to carry at least low end rain chances through the middle of next week.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/Issued 143 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Scattered storms, some severe this afternoon and evening. Low cigs early Thursday morning with another round of storms possible in the afternoon.

VFR cigs and breezy south-southwesterly winds will persist this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the north-northeast this evening but will stay below 10 kts. The main impact with the front will be the potential for storms developing along the boundary this evening. Confidence has increased that some of this activity will initiate near the I-35 corridor and impact some of the TAF sites. The main window will be between 00-04Z this evening. A TEMPO TSRA has been introduced to all the DFW Metroplex sites except for KAFW where probabilities are slightly lower at this time. Coverage of storms will remain isolated across Central TX so will keep VCTS between 23-02Z. Also, some of these storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Once the front moves south of each location storm chances will come to an end. The next round of MVFR/IFR cigs will arrive around 09-10Z tonight and continue through most of the morning. There is a chance of scattered storms after 18Z Thursday, and may impact some if not all the sites.
Forecast details/timing will continue to be adjusted.

Sanchez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 83 63 80 62 / 30 40 20 0 5 Waco 72 86 64 77 61 / 20 40 20 5 5 Paris 65 82 60 79 56 / 60 40 30 0 0 Denton 65 82 60 79 58 / 10 40 20 0 5 McKinney 67 82 61 79 58 / 40 40 20 0 5 Dallas 70 83 64 80 61 / 40 40 20 0 5 Terrell 69 84 62 79 58 / 50 40 30 0 5 Corsicana 73 86 65 81 61 / 20 40 30 0 5 Temple 72 87 65 79 61 / 20 40 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 66 83 61 80 58 / 5 40 20 0 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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