Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Richland Hills, TX

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:04 PM CDT (21:04 UTC) Moonrise 6:38PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richland Hills, TX
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location: 32.77, -97.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 212100 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

. New Long Term .

SHORT TERM. /Issued 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ /This Afternoon and Tomorrow/

A weak cold front is continuing to slide through the forecast area, however, it is quickly losing its cold push/upper support and will stall out near Waco this afternoon. This will allow for slightly cooler temperatures alongside noticeably drier air across North Texas. Similar weather to yesterday is expected across Central Texas. One exception is additional cloud cover working its way into the region from the Concho Valley. A weak minor shortwave trough currently analyzed between Midland/San Angelo will move into western Central Texas this afternoon and early this evening. Additional lift brought by the shortwave will allow for a few showers to develop, but thunder chances are around 10% or less. The shortwave trough should clear out of the area this evening and bring an end to any precip potential for Central Texas in short order.

The front should migrate south tonight, clearing most if not all of our Central Texas counties by daybreak. It can be argued that the front is moving south as the high center shifts southeast, but it could also be argued that the "pooled" cold air behind the front is oozing south due to the density difference ahead/behind the front Either way. a shallow layer of cooler and drier air should filter into deep Central Texas, undercutting the more humid air as it does so. This will increase the cloud cover overnight, but limited deep layer moisture and lift should preclude the precip chances across Central Texas. Meanwhile, the low level high will shift east and allow for a stout southerly LLJ to develop over West Texas tonight. The intersection of the southerly LLJ and the surface theta-e boundary over Western Oklahoma should allow for a few showers/thunderstorms to develop to the northwest of our forecast area in the early morning hours. We have capped our PoPs at 10% for now, but would not be surprised if our Western North Texas counties get a rogue shower early tomorrow morning.

Southerly flow will help draw the stalled front north as a lifting warm front tomorrow. No sensible weather is forecast with the front, but it should should provide slightly more cloud cover and a quick return to the higher moisture air/warmer temperatures to North Texas after a somewhat nice day today.

Bonnette

LONG TERM. /NEW/ /Friday Night through Next Week/

Are you prepared for it to feel more like late September than late October? The overall pattern through the extended period will be unseasonably warm and moderately humid with a few chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into next week. The first round of precipitation is expected to develop Sunday afternoon/evening as a shortwave trough quickly shuffles through the Plains. Another round is set to arrive midweek when a highly amplified upper level trough emerges from the Rockies.

Warm and dry conditions are expected on Saturday as subtle ridging traverses the central CONUS. At the surface, winds will become breezy out of the south as a lee low forms in response to the increasing zonal flow across the central Rockies. The steady advection of warm/moist air should keep the relative humidity elevated region-wide leading to some fairly muggy days ahead. The unseasonably warm temperatures and increasing low-level moisture will set the stage for isolated to scattered diurnal sea breeze convection Saturday afternoon which may make a run at the southeastern fringes of our county warning area. Any convection that manages to develop will quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, leading to another warm and humid night on Saturday night.

Our next shortwave trough, embedded in the zonal flow aloft, will march across the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday, bringing the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms back into our region. The best rain chances will be confined to areas generally east of I-35 where the more plentiful moisture will be located. The large-scale forcing, better instability, and deep layer shear should be displaced just to our north where the Storm Prediction Center has recently started highlighting the potential for more organized convection. However, thunderstorms that develop along an advancing cold front on Sunday afternoon may eventually migrate across the Red River and into eastern North Texas late Sunday. There remains too much uncertainty at this time to assess specific severe weather threats, but this system will continue to be monitored with updates likely needed in subsequent forecasts. Rain and storm chances will come to an end from west to east overnight Sunday as the shortwave departs and upper level ridging briefly returns by daybreak Monday.

Daytime temperatures are expected to warm well into the 80s with a chance for slightly warmer temperatures, exceeding 90 degrees, in a few locations in the northwest. Our warmest days look to occur on Monday and Tuesday when the afternoon high temperatures are currently forecast to warm within a few degrees of the records for a few locations across the region, including DFW. (The current record high at DFW for October 25th is 89 degrees set in 1927, 1950, and 1992.)

The next big system that will impact North and Central Texas will be a large upper level trough that will move onshore early next week. This deep upper trough and the associated Pacific cold front will swiftly move through the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains by the middle of the week. This system will have some pretty noticeable impacts on the sensible weather with increasing rain/storm chances across North and Central Texas on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and cooler, more seasonal temperatures returning through the end of the week. There continues to be a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding several details of this system due to the lack of consensus and run-to-run consistency among both the deterministic and ensemble models. Many details are subject to change over the next 4-5 days, but this dynamic system is something to keep an eye on.

12

AVIATION. /Issued 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ /18Z TAFs/

VFR and northeast flow will prevail through the afternoon with the winds becoming near calm overnight. Expect winds to become out of the southeast by tomorrow morning. Scattered rain showers are possible over the Big/Hill Country this afternoon and again over western OK/North Texas in the early morning hours tonight. Most should not contain lightning, but a few showers may produce an occasional lightning strike impacting western ARR/DEPs.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 82 66 85 69 / 5 10 0 0 5 Waco 60 84 66 85 69 / 5 5 0 5 5 Paris 51 78 60 83 67 / 0 5 5 5 10 Denton 52 82 61 86 66 / 10 10 0 0 5 McKinney 52 82 62 85 68 / 5 10 0 0 5 Dallas 57 83 67 85 70 / 0 10 0 0 5 Terrell 52 82 63 85 67 / 0 5 0 5 5 Corsicana 57 84 66 85 68 / 5 5 0 5 5 Temple 60 84 64 85 67 / 10 5 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 55 82 61 85 66 / 5 10 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX9 mi72 minN 510.00 miFair81°F56°F42%1019.5 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX9 mi72 minNE 610.00 miFair84°F56°F38%1019.6 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX9 mi3.2 hrsENE 410.00 miClear79°F52°F39%1021.7 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX11 mi73 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F57°F41%1018.8 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX13 mi72 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds82°F51°F34%1019.3 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX15 mi75 minNNE 410.00 miFair82°F55°F40%1021 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX16 mi72 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F52°F37%1019.4 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX18 mi72 minN 510.00 miFair81°F56°F42%1019.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX20 mi72 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F56°F41%1019.6 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX24 mi77 minENE 413.00 miClear82°F50°F32%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGKY

Wind History from GKY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE4SE5E500S30S3N30NW3NW4N6N7N7N10NE9NE8NE8NE6N3NE64
1 day agoSE12SE13
G21
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2 days agoSE11SE11SE9SE5SE6SE7SE5SE4SE7SE50S6S8S5SE5SE9S3SE7SE15S12
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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