Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:28 AM   Moonset 3:37 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 041114 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 614 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

No significant changes to the forecast through tonight.
Thunderstorms should start to increase in coverage later this morning and afternoon as a cold front approaches the area, but the better storm chances will arrive later tonight as deep convection from West Texas spreads across North and Central Texas. While there will be a threat for severe weather, particularly west of I-35, the threat for heavy rainfall is increasing across our southwest counties. This area hasn't seen as much rain the last few days, but an expansion of the Flood Watch may be needed later this morning.

Dunn

Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Sunday/

Convection is waning across the region tonight as surface based inhibition increases. A cluster of showers and a few storms continue to the south of Waco at this hour, but this activity should diminish over the next hour or so. The remainder of the night should be quiet with light winds and humid conditions. Some patchy fog may develop later tonight into the early morning hours on Saturday.

The active weather pattern will continue with a cold front currently across southwest Kansas expected to move through Oklahoma overnight and approaching North Texas Saturday morning.
Synoptic scale forcing for ascent may be negligible during this time, but forcing along the front itself may be sufficient for scattered showers/storms to develop earlier than they did on Friday. This activity is most likely to occur across our northwest counties and generally north of I-20 into the early afternoon.
We'll have some 30-40% PoPs to account for this activity while our central TX counties will likely remain dry.

It's a little unclear whether or not the front will actually make it down into our area through midday with a consensus of the guidance suggesting that it'll get hung up to our north in response to an approaching upstream shortwave. This shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery approaching northern Baja California at this hour. Meanwhile, either an outflow boundary or just a general backing of the low level flow ahead of the front will likely lead to increased low level moisture convergence across the I-20 corridor through the afternoon. This will support isolated/scattered storm development through late afternoon, especially from the Metroplex westward. Meanwhile, thunderstorms will increase in coverage across West Texas and become severe near the intersection of the southward moving front and dryline late this afternoon. This activity will likely evolve into one or more clusters of thunderstorms and spread eastward into North Texas late Saturday night as stronger forcing for ascent from the aforementioned shortwave overspreads the Southern Plains. While there will certainly be some potential for severe weather, especially across our western counties, widespread heavy rainfall may result in additional flooding issues across parts of the region. Latest HRRR guidance shows a large swath of 2-3 inches of rain through late Saturday night across our southwest counties, the majority of which falls in about 3 hours. This may necessitate a westward expansion of the flood watch. We'll coordinate this over the next several hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the region late Saturday night and continue to move eastward into early Sunday morning, tapering off from west to east through the day.
Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Sunday afternoon across our central and southeast counties as the front stalls in wake of the departing shortwave.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 309 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024/ /Sunday Night Through Next Saturday Afternoon/

Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, but convection will be weakening and should completely dissipate late Sunday evening. By early next week, the upper level low evident in current mid-level water vapor satellite imagery near the coast of the Pacific Northwest will eject across the central and northern Plains as an increasingly negatively tilted upper trough. As stronger height falls spread east toward the Rockies, surface low pressure will be generated enhancing southerly low-level flow and moisture advection across the southern Plains on Monday. While large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough will largely be displaced to the north (OK/KS), favorable low-level moisture/instability ahead of an eastward mixing dryline may be sufficient for the development of isolated dryline-induced convection Monday afternoon. Given that convective coverage is likely to be low due to the presence of a capping inversion, PoPs have been capped at 30% Monday afternoon and evening. Instability in excess of 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 35-50 kts of deep-layer shear should sustain any updrafts that develop. Large hail, localized severe gusts, and a tornado or two will be possible.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper-level trough/low will linger over Montana and the Dakotas while upper-level ridging builds eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Amid south to southwest flow at the surface and quasi-zonal flow aloft, abnormal but sub- record heat is expected each afternoon through Thursday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. This is near the 99th percentile of the historical temperature distribution for early May (according to NAEFS and ECMWF). A shortwave trough will begin working around the base of the slowly evolving northern Plains upper trough/low on Wednesday. The enhancement of mid-level flow along with strong instability ahead of the lingering dryline is expected to bring thunderstorm chances back into parts of North and Central Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that develop could become severe with all hazards possible. Storm chances will likely increase again on Thursday afternoon as the stalled surface cold front over Kansas finally begins pushing through Oklahoma and North TX providing a focus for additional convective development. In the wake of the departing trough/front, Mother's Day weekend is shaping up to be seasonably mild with highs in the mid 70s.

12

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

MVFR/IFR cigs are overspreading North Texas this morning and we'll prevail this through the rest of the morning at all airports. The threat for TS will increase a little later this morning as a cold front approaches the area, but coverage should generally be scattered and peak around midday along the I-20 corridor. We'll continue with a VCTS from 17-21Z to account for this activity.
More widespread TSRA is expected later this evening and overnight followed by a period of IFR cigs into early Sunday morning.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 67 79 69 83 / 40 100 40 20 30 Waco 79 66 78 68 82 / 30 100 40 20 20 Paris 80 65 75 65 81 / 30 70 90 20 30 Denton 78 65 77 66 82 / 30 100 40 10 30 McKinney 79 67 76 67 82 / 30 90 60 20 30 Dallas 80 67 79 68 83 / 30 90 40 20 30 Terrell 80 66 77 67 82 / 30 90 60 20 20 Corsicana 81 69 79 69 84 / 30 80 50 20 20 Temple 81 67 79 69 82 / 30 90 40 20 10 Mineral Wells 78 65 78 66 84 / 40 100 20 20 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162- 174-175.

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