Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 5:01 AM   Moonset 7:06 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 071809 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 109 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New Aviation

SHORT TERM
/Issued 537 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ Update:

Overnight the storms up in Oklahoma did well to not cross the Red River, keeping this morning quiet and dry. An approaching cold front is currently draped to our northwest, along a Midland- Frederick-OKC line. This is easily seen by the differences in surface observations, with Frederick, Oklahoma currently 59/54 while Wichita Falls is still 73/71! The front will continue to sag south through the rest of the morning, clearing out the overnight stratus and eventually stalling across Central Texas as it loses the upper level support. Even with the presence of the front, North and Central Texas will still be able to warm up into the 80s region- wide this afternoon.

No wholesale changes were made to the morning forecast package aside from including observations and new model guidance. The previous short term forecast discussion remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion: /Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

A relatively quiet day has come to an end with little to no showers and storms to be had across the region. While the evening 00Z FWD sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere, storm development was quite lacking as the necessary source of lift remained well to our north. Up in Oklahoma, discrete storms and clusters continue to zipper south along the dryline, and are progged to move east through the rest of the overnight hours. CAM guidance continues to confine storm chances to just north of the Red River, but we cannot rule out the low possibility that a storm may develop a bit more south in our northern tier of counties through this morning.
Elsewhere will continue to remain dry.

Otherwise, a cold front will continue its southward trek as a shortwave disturbance swings around the periphery of the main upper low. This frontal passage will ultimately result in a temporary northwest wind shift through the first half of this afternoon.
The front will eventually stall across the region as its upper level support ejects to the northeast. Even in the presence of the stalled front, afternoon temperatures region-wide will be able to climb into the 80s as little cold air advection is expected post- front. Later towards early evening, deepening low surface pressure to our northwest will shift winds back to the south and urge the front northward as a warm front in response. This will place all of North and Central Texas back into the warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s expected once again going into midweek. Guidance is continuing to pick up on the potential for isolated storms in Central Texas this evening, but has backed off some in the most current runs. The inhibition to storm development today is a lack of appreciable lift overhead, and so have not included mentionable precipitation chances this afternoon and evening.

Our next chance at severe weather will be on Wednesday as a sharpening dryline just to our west will become a focus for storm initiation as another shortwave moves across the Central Plains and spreads forcing for ascent over the region. The dryline should gradually move east over the course of the afternoon, eventually ending up closer to I-35 later in the day. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of this boundary through the end of the short term period. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates and abundant instability and deep layer shear, indicative of strong to severe storms primarily capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 316 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /Wednesday Night Onward/

A cold front will continue to sag south through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday as a positive tilt trough drops southeast from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Precipitation will come to an end Wednesday night with the loss of instability and the exit of the trough. Convection may reignite Thursday afternoon across Central and East Texas in the vicinity of the front, however, as a trailing disturbance approaches. Thursday's storms (some of which will be severe based on the high levels of CAPE and effective shear in place) will exit to the south and east Thursday night as the front receives a stronger southward push and heads for South Texas and the northwest Gulf.

This will set the stage for a nice start to the weekend as cooler and drier air enters with the cold front. Friday and Saturday highs in the 70s will be generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal, while nighttime lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s will be 3 to 5 degrees below normal.

Return flow will begin on Sunday as the post-frontal surface ridge heads for the Central Gulf Coast. Clouds will be on the increase during the day Sunday as a cut-off low over the Desert Southwest advances east. Moisture return will be initially minimal, but scattered showers should become possible by Sunday evening across our western and southern counties as both moisture and lift gradually increase. Better rain chances will occur Monday and Monday night as the upper low crosses the Texas Panhandle, with rain and storm chances continuing through next Tuesday as the low transitions to an open trough while moving east through the Plains.

Weak flow aloft and modest instability should mitigate the potential for severe weather Sunday and Monday. Strengthening shear and better instability will increase the severe potential for next Tuesday, though it is a bit too soon to narrow down all severe weather parameters. Either way, rain and storm chances will continue through the middle of next week as a second upper trough passes through the region. A mid level ridge will then develop overhead late next week, possibly bringing another lull in rain chances.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low cigs early Wednesday morning, convective potential Wednesday afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the day and most of the night before another round of low clouds/MVFR cigs return to the region around 07-08Z. While the majority of the IFR ceilings are expected to stay across portions of East/Central TX, there is a medium-high chance KACT will see IFR conditions between 11-15Z.
Clouds will eventually scatter out by early afternoon as a weak cold front moves through. Winds will shift from northwesterly to south-southeasterly in the next few hours, but will remain light through tonight. They are forecast to increase tomorrow morning to around 12-18 kt gusting to 25 kt.

A few isolated storms may develop across western Central Texas and move near KACT this evening, but probability/confidence remain low to mention any thunder at this time. For tomorrow afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop near an approaching cold front in North Texas. The highest chances remain to the north-northeast of the DFW Metroplex sites, but one or two storms may impact some of the eastern sites (KDFW, KDAL, and KGKY). Given the uncertainties on timing and coverage, the current forecast didn't introduce any VCTS at this time. This will need to be monitored during future TAFs updates.

Sanchez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 91 67 79 61 / 5 20 10 20 10 Waco 72 89 71 82 61 / 10 20 10 20 10 Paris 69 85 63 80 58 / 10 30 30 20 10 Denton 69 90 63 79 57 / 0 10 10 20 10 McKinney 70 89 64 79 58 / 5 30 20 20 10 Dallas 73 91 67 80 61 / 5 20 10 20 10 Terrell 72 87 67 80 59 / 10 20 20 30 20 Corsicana 74 87 71 84 62 / 10 20 20 30 20 Temple 72 89 70 83 62 / 20 5 5 30 10 Mineral Wells 69 91 63 78 57 / 0 0 5 10 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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