Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 4:19 AM   Moonset 5:45 PM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 829 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds 15 kt. Showers and tstms likely. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.Sat - NW winds 10 kt. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 76 degrees.

AMZ300 829 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

FXUS62 KCHS 070053 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 853 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
The convection has been slowly winding down this evening. The upper shortwave moving through the area has been the primary driving factor behind the eastward progression of the activity.
There remains some untapped instability in southeast GA which explains why the activity remains more discrete and stronger than what's in SC. We're seeing a brief flare-up of stratiform rain over the Charleston Tri-County Area which should be off the coast by 10p.

For the rest of the night, another weak shortwave is forecast to move through, and given marginal instability and high theta-e air, we can't rule out isolated convection redeveloping overnight. A mild night is on tap with lows in the middle 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tuesday through Wednesday: Mid and upper level ridging will build across the region on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. At the surface, the pattern will look very summer-like with high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic extending back to the west and into the region. The main story during this period will be increasing low- level thickness values and likely the warmest temperatures of the year so far (see Climate section below). Highs are forecast to reach the low 90s away from the immediate coast each day, with even some mid 90s possible for Wednesday. The good news is that dew points should mix out each afternoon, keeping heat index values only a few degrees higher than the ambient air temperatures. Thanks to the ridge and warm profiles, the atmosphere becomes less supportive of diurnal convection each day. The forecast is dry, other than a small area of slight chances in place for portions of the Charleston Tri- County region early on Tuesday.

Thursday: Mostly a continuation of the warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs again forecast into the low to mid 90s. The main change is that the ridge flattens out aloft and a strong cold front will approach the region from the northwest. While the bulk of the day appears to be dry, by as early as the late afternoon upstream thunderstorms could develop and begin to move into the forecast area. The environment ahead of these storms could be supportive of a notable severe weather threat with CAPE in excess of 2,000 J/kg and deep layer shear on the order of 30-40 knots. The timing of the severe potential remains a bit uncertain, but the area remains within a 15% threat area on SPC's day 4 severe weather outlook. The highest rain chances are across the interior, 50-60 percent, ranging to just 20s along portions of the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The Thursday night and Friday portion of the period remains quite uncertain and will depend on the progression of the cold front through the area. Some guidance would suggest that the front does not clear the forecast area and another round of convection could pass through while other guidance pushes the front further south and feature a much drier and quieter solution. Either way, the front will be offshore by Friday night and a notable airmass change is in store for the weekend. The forecast is dry and temperatures are expected to be down to right around normal for mid May, and this should continue into early next week as well.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Convection has been impacting the terminals this evening after inland convection marched back to the coast. The strongest storms will impact KSAV. Brief vsby and/or ceiling restrictions possible through late evening, then dry conditions overnight into Tuesday.

There could be some ground fog at the terminals toward morning, although fog probabilities are too low to include in the forecast for now.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Primarily VFR. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late Thursday through Friday.

MARINE
At the sfc, the pattern will feature high pressure from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf of Mexico and a warm front across the Ohio River Valley. This pattern should yield south-southwest winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft through tonight.

Tuesday through Saturday: For the first half of the period, the pattern will be quite similar to a summertime pattern with the local waters sitting under the western edge of high pressure over the Atlantic. The result will be south to southwest flow that surges closer to the land/sea interface each afternoon and evening. For the late part of the week, this will change as a cold front approaches on Thursday and then passes through by Friday. This will support stronger winds, and possibly necessitate Small Craft Advisories for portions of the waters. Behind the front Friday night and into the weekend, winds will be northwesterly though not as strong and any ongoing advisories should end.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The upcoming New Moon (May 8) and recent Perigee (May 5) will lead to elevated astronomical tides over the next few days. Minor coastal flooding is possible along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties, including Downtown Charleston, during the evening high tides Tuesday through Thursday.

CLIMATE
May 7: KCHS: 93/1977 KSAV: 94/1977

May 8: KCHS: 93/1986 KSAV: 96/1986

May 9: KCHS: 95/1963 KSAV: 95/1962

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Clouter Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:39 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:51 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clouter Creek, north entrance, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:54 AM EDT     -2.82 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:22 PM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:26 PM EDT     -3.15 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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