Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:20AM||Sunset 7:19PM||Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:35 PM CDT (17:35 UTC)||Moonrise 11:19PM||Moonset 1:25PM||Illumination 52%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Azle, TXHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 281052 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 552 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021
. New Short Term, Aviation .
SHORT TERM. /NEW/ Update:
Not any noteworthy changes made with the latest forecast update. I did extend the eastward extent of likely PoPs into East Texas based on the thinking that low level flow may be sufficient to keep what should be a slowly weakening line of showers and storms going. As will be discussed in the discussion below, if the line of storms this afternoon and into tonight is very robust, Wednesday could feature quieter conditions and PoPs will need to be toned down.
Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday Afternoon/
The start of our wetter period is anticipated to commence late this morning and into the evening. The latest model guidance has suggested that sufficient instability and wind shear may support loosely-organized convective modes and thus a low-end severe weather risk. The main hazards at this juncture would be strong to near severe downburst winds as well as hail.
Southwest flow aloft has replaced our modest mid-level ridging early this morning and a small convective cluster was noted across the Big Country. This activity will likely continue to move northeastward, steered by the southwesterly flow aloft. We'll keep an eye on this activity as it's not being handled by any of the hi-res NWP, but current expectations are that this activity will remain north and west of our region. We'll be watchful of any outflow boundaries that could serve as additional foci for new storm development later today.
Through late morning and into the afternoon, convection is expected to blossom as broad low-level troughing helps to pull moisture northwestward across Central Texas and the Big Country. While large scale synoptic forcing remains modest, sufficient low level convergence along the sharpening dryline is expected to facilitate the development of convection through peak heating. There are some discrepancies as to where the dryline will become well-defined, but the current consensus suggest somewhere along a Childress to Abilene line. Should the magnitude of convergence be weaker than expected, the coverage will certainly be less and current PoPs will be too high. At this juncture, however, the HREF consensus supports a 50-60 PoP west of I-35 by mid to late afternoon.
Instability and shear will foster organized convective modes, mainly consisting of multicellular clusters (though some transient supercell structures are not completely out of the question). With inverted-V type profiles evident in forecast soundings, convection will likely remain outflow dominant, thereby limiting any tornado potential and confining the most likely hazard to that of strong to damaging winds. Deep layer shear around 25 to 35 knots in the presence of 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will equate to a secondary large hail risk. The coverage of severe weather will likely be limited to just a few storms and I do NOT expect an outbreak of severe weather. The most likely area for severe weather will be near and west of I-35 this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Showers and storms will likely approach the I-35 corridor toward sunset though the coverage is uncertain. I'll hold onto 50-60 PoPs as activity may be cold pool driven if it can really organize across the Big Country. 925mb flow of around 25 to 30 knots would certainly support the maintenance of convective activity but instability decreases with eastward extent. I'll taper PoPs downward after 03Z, but still show a chance of showers and storms (40-50%) east of I-35. By this time, the severe weather threat will likely be subdued.
Wednesday does present a difficult forecast as it will likely hinge on Tuesday night's convective coverage. After coordination with surrounding offices, it appears that PoPs advertised by the blended guidance may be too high. The higher resolution NWP should in theory have a better handle on any pockets of mesoscale subsidence and it's likely to be in place across at least parts of the area in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. If a very mature cluster of showers and storms plows through most of North and Central Texas Tuesday night and into early Wednesday, much of the day on Wednesday may simply be cloudy, but largely rain/storm- free. However, if Tuesday night/Wednesday morning convection weakens quickly, the atmosphere will have plenty of time to destabilize and another round of showers and storms can be expected near and east of I-35. I've toned PoPs down from the blended guidance, but we'll make adjustments after we see what transpires today. While multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms would suggest the need for flood headlines, the recent lack of appreciable rainfall should confine any flood threat to that of the minor variety.
Otherwise, we'll likely have to contend with another day of low to mid 90 degree heat this afternoon. Clouds and potentially rain/storms should result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs largely in the 80s.
LONG TERM. /Issued 408 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/ /Wednesday night through Next Monday/
As the first rainmaker system lifts to the northeast, a second upper level feature will take its place and keep the unsettled weather pattern through the weekend. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through Sunday with the most widespread rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Our temperatures will remain near or just slightly below seasonal averages over the next several days due to rain/clouds and a passing cold front early next week.
While there will be a few lingering showers/storms Wednesday night, coverage will remain scattered. A deepening trough will move across the Rockies on Thursday sending a surface low and cold front into the Southern Plains. Model trends are still not quite on the same page regarding the evolution of the upper system which will have an impact on the progression of the surface low, the boundary/cold front placement, and precipitation chances Thursday- Sunday. While we keep Thursday's rain chances high (60-70%) across the entire region, there are some uncertainties as models handle the placement of the best axis of moisture and ascent differently. The official forecast will continue to be adjusted as new guidance becomes available and CAMs begin to capture this period. There is a little better agreement with the round of precipitation on Friday as the upper level low and surface feature moves closer to our region. It appears that the upper trough will then move northward and the surface cold front will become nearly stationary just to our west. This will keep North and Central TX under a regime of strong warm advection resulting in widespread to numerous showers and storms on Friday. A few more rounds of precip are expected on Saturday as the front stalls to our west, but we anticipate it will be through much of our area by Sunday afternoon. The severe weather threat remains low for the long-term portion of the forecast, but there is a potential for training convection that could result in higher rainfall totals across some locations. With multiple days of rain in the forecast, the potential for flooding will increase especially late in the week. Most places could see 2-3 inches over the next 7 days with the multiple rounds of rainfall. Much drier air will filter in behind the front early next week with only low rain chances across Central Texas.
AVIATION. /NEW/ /12 UTC TAF Cycle/
Highlights---Convective potential this afternoon/tonight.
Intermittent MVFR will be possible this morning at Waco as a patchy of stratus slowly lifts northward. VFR is expected at D10 TAFs this morning.
This afternoon, isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop near a K0F2 to KLZZ line between 20-21 UTC. This activity at the very least will clutter the Bowie and Glen Rose arrival routes as result in impacts to westbound traffic. SHRA/TSRA will advanced eastward toward the I-35 corridor around 00 UTC Wednesday and VCTS still seems appropriate at D10 TAFs around that time. At Waco, the line of SHRA/TSRA may approach a little later. The coverage still remains a little uncertain and at this juncture, I'll defer to later shifts regarding TEMPO or prevailing TSRA.
MVFR stratus is expected to surge northward late tonight into Wednesday morning. Stratus will likely overspread all TAF sites except FTW and AFW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 72 84 71 84 / 20 60 70 30 70 Waco 91 71 84 70 85 / 20 60 70 30 70 Paris 89 70 80 68 81 / 20 40 70 40 70 Denton 91 70 83 67 84 / 30 70 70 30 70 McKinney 91 71 82 69 84 / 20 60 70 40 70 Dallas 92 72 84 72 85 / 20 60 70 30 70 Terrell 91 71 83 69 84 / 20 60 70 40 70 Corsicana 90 71 82 70 84 / 20 60 70 40 70 Temple 91 71 85 69 86 / 30 60 70 30 70 Mineral Wells 90 69 85 67 85 / 60 80 50 20 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.
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|Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX||11 mi||44 min||S 6||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||91°F||68°F||47%||1010.9 hPa|
|Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX||12 mi||43 min||S 8||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||88°F||67°F||50%||1011.3 hPa|
|Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX||13 mi||43 min||SSE 10||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||88°F||66°F||48%||1010.7 hPa|
|Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX||24 mi||41 min||SSW 5||7.00 mi||Fair||86°F||65°F||50%||1012.9 hPa|
|Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX||24 mi||61 min||SW 4||10.00 mi||Fair||87°F||65°F||48%||1012.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KNFW
Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||N||Calm||Calm||E||SE||S||SE||SE||S||S||S||S||S||Calm||Calm||S||SE||S||S||S||SE||S |
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