Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brawley, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 6:38PM Thursday September 23, 2021 8:07 PM PDT (03:07 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 8:58AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brawley, CA
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location: 32.98, -115.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 240257 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 757 PM MST Thu Sep 23 2021

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Warm conditions will continue today with slightly above normal high temperatures. A low pressure system and an increase in moisture starting late today and Friday will introduce a more unsettled weather pattern to the region. Highs should cool down to near or slightly below normal along with a slight to sometimes moderate chance of showers and storms. The shower and storm chances and slightly cooler highs could possibly persist through early next week for Phoenix.

DISCUSSION . Current radar imagery is showing scattered shower/TS activity developing/moving eastward across SE CA/SW AZ at this hour as an upper-level trof moves SW-ward into the region. The showers/storm have been (for the most part) on the light side, with radar estimates slowly only isolated spots receiving over 1/2 inch of rain, with most locations seeing rainfall amounts in the trace- 0.10 inch range. Latest high-res model output is showing these showers/storms moving slowly eastward across La Paz/Yuma counties into western Maricopa County this evening, then dissipating overnight as the afomentioned trof transitions into a closed low over the lower CO river valley, then retrograde SW-ward back into SE CA/NW Baja during the day on Friday. Most lower desert locations across our CWA will likely see highs near/just over 100 degrees today, which will likely be the last triple-digit highs we will see for the next several days.

Friday looks like it will be a less active day as the upper low continues to back SW-ward to a position off the southern CA coast, pulling the better moisture/dynamics out of our CWA. Still, the combination (PWAT's in the 1.10-1.40 inch range) and cooling aloft will keep POPS elevated (in the 10-30% range).

An upramp in convective activity appears likely during the late Sat- Sun period as the afomentioned upper low center begins to move eastward along/just south of the International Border, especially over south-central AZ. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the low center is expected to provide a more favorable environment for convective activity over the region during this period. There is some indication that rainfall could be enhanced by additional moisture from a tropical disturbance that is now located several hundred miles SW of the Baja Peninsula, as latest global model emsemble suites are showing a more s-ly track of the upper low center, putting it in a more favorable position to draw this tropical moisture NE-ward into the region. Current WPC QPF guidance has raised total 1-5 day rainfall guidance up into the 0.25-0.50 inch range over much of our CWA. As far as temperatures are concerning, lower desert highs are expected to fall solidly downward into the 90's tomorrow and Saturday, with even cooler temps (80's) likely at many locations on Sunday.

As far as early next week is concerned, a drying trend appears to be in the offing during the Monday-Tuesday period as the upper low moves off to the east and drier westerly flow develops over the region. A return to a wetter pattern is possible by the middle of next week, as many of the GEFS/EPS members are now bring another upper-level trof into the region.

AVIATION. Updated at 0237Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: This evening, the Phoenix area is situated between two weather features. One is a circulation centered over the White Mountains (remnants of Sonoran thunderstorm activity) and another is the southern end of an upper trough with a SW-NE oriented axis that lies across southern California and into Utah. The outflow from storms associated with the former feature overspread southeast Arizona earlier and then overspread the Phoenix area late this afternoon. It is expected that will be the predominant influence on surface winds the rest of the evening. Meanwhile, the upper trough helped generate thunderstorm activity over western Maricopa County (and points west of there). That storm activity has all but dissipated.

The southern end of the upper trough is expected to break off from the main trough tonight and become a closed low centered west of the northern Baja Friday night. In the process, the flow aloft will go from mostly northwest and west to southeast by Friday afternoon. It will also enable isolated shower and thunderstorm development over south-central AZ (possibly even resuming before dawn). However, the confidence of SHRA/TSRA occurring at any of the TAF sites is too low at this time to reflect in the TAFs. But, there is potential for outflow related wind shifts. Overall though, surface winds are anticipated to trend to southeast and east later tonight before shifting to westerly in the afternoon. Anticipate ceilings to remain AOA FL100 and probably AOA FL200 for much of the time.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Shower and thunderstorm activity has pretty much wound down for the evening. It was driven by the southern end of an upper trough with a SW-NE oriented axis that lies across southern California and into Utah. It is expected to break off from the main trough tonight and become a closed low centered west of the northern Baja Friday night. In the process, the flow aloft will go from mostly northwest to east by Friday afternoon. It will also enable isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development over southwest AZ and southeast CA during the day Friday (possibly starting before 18Z). Confidence in the occurrence of SHRA/TSRA at either of the TAF sites is too low at this time to have prevailing or even TEMPO in the TAFs. But, it bears watching. Also, there may very well be enough convective activity in the general area to affect the surface winds. Overall though, expect primarily south and southeast surface winds through Friday. Also anticipate redevelopment of cloud decks AOA FL100 and especially AOA FL150.

FIRE WEATHER. Saturday through Wednesday: A slow weather system will continue to influence the area through much of the period. Elevated moisture/cloudiness and slight to occasionally moderate precip/storm chances for the lower deserts and high terrain can be expected through early next week. The chance of wetting rains/showers and storms is slight to moderate through the weekend (20-40% in the western deserts, and 10-30% around Phoenix). Precip/storm chances of 10-30% are maintained into early next week across Phoenix and the lower deserts, but diminish in western deserts beginning early next week. In addition, slightly higher 40-50% POPs are favored for the E high country for the late weekend and 10-20% through the first half of next week. Slightly below normal highs expected through the period. Min RH around 20-30% is favored through early next week before dropping into the upper teens for parts of the western deserts on Tuesday. With the exception of locally gusty winds near thunderstorms, winds will be fairly light each day, with typical afternoon breezes that will favor local diurnal/terrain influences.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Percha AVIATION . 17 FIRE WEATHER . Sawtelle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDBC1 - 9410170 - San Diego, CA 89 mi55 min 70°F1011.5 hPa
TIXC1 - Tijuana River Reserve, CA 89 mi82 min NW 4.1 66°F 1012 hPa63°F

Wind History for USS MIDWAY South Navy Pier, San Diego, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Imperial, Imperial County Airport, CA10 mi74 minS 810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity91°F62°F38%1007.4 hPa
El Centro, Naval Air Facility, CA13 mi71 minS 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F64°F42%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIPL

Wind History from IPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW8CalmCalmW7SW7SE5SE4CalmCalmS3W4CalmSE5E5E8SE13E11SE16SE14S14S14S8S5
1 day agoW3CalmCalmW3NW4CalmCalmW3SW5W4W6W3W5W5W6NE3CalmW45NE6W4W5SW4SW4
2 days agoCalmCalmN3S3E3W5SW4E3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3NE4N5E6E5E5NE54W4SW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for National City, San Diego Bay, California
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National City
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Thu -- 05:09 AM PDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:16 AM PDT     5.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:46 PM PDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:42 PM PDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.24.53.42.21.30.91.223.24.45.45.95.85.142.71.60.90.81.22.13.24.14.8

Tide / Current Tables for San Diego, California
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San Diego
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:59 AM PDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:12 AM PDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM PDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 PM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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54.23.121.20.91.22.13.24.45.35.85.64.83.72.51.50.80.81.32.13.24.14.6

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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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