Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM   Moonset 12:30 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KJAN 011139 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 639 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today and tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1016mb high centered over the Appalachians that was ridging back across our CWA This was resulting in a light return flow and some patchy dense fog to our southeast. Patchy dense fog will likely spread into our southeast zones toward sunrise but a Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated at this time. The surface ridge will gradually weaken through tonight but remain in place. This will help low level moisture increase through the period. PWATs will start off below an inch areawide but by sunrise Thursday PWATS will be back near an inch and a half in our southwest. A southern stream shortwave will approach our southwest zones Thursday morning and help develop convection over southern Louisiana. Model consensus keeps convection to the west of our CWA through sunrise. Our normal afternoon highs run 80-83F. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s but a few locations in the south may reach 90F. Tonight the moisture increase will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Our normal low temperatures run in the upper 50s to near 60F. /22/

Thursday through next Tuesday...

The period begins with an unsettled weather pattern as a shortwave develops into the Mid-West region. This is expected to bring a line of showers and storms into the CWA Thursday morning into the afternoon. Hi-Res CAM guidance indicates sufficient lapse rates and surface instability in the ArkLaTex region, which looks to support a MCS across the region. However, by the time it reaches the Mississippi River, conditions look to stabilize north of the MS/LA southern border, which will limit our potential for any significant weather. A gusty cell cannot be ruled out, especially in southern MS. By Friday morning, rain chances look to stick around as a boundary hangs up across central MS just north of a high pressure in the off of the MS coast. This will keep higher rain chances in the forecast through late Friday evening. By the weekend, low level southerly flow paired with a series of week shortwaves moving through the region will keep scattered to isolated rain chances in the forecast through Monday. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 80s through the weekend.

By Monday, surface ridging will amplify over the southeast CONUS, bringing drier and warmer air into the ArkLaMiss. Southwest flow will keep the moisture at bay going into the new work week.
Additionally, increasing heights will bring our first dose of summer- like temperatures into the region. Highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s by mid-week. /AJ/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The IFR/LIFR conditions have not developed as anticipated in the south but MVFR visibilities wl be psbl through 13Z. By 14Z VFR conditions are expected and VFR conditions wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 88 64 86 67 / 0 0 20 40 Meridian 88 62 89 66 / 0 0 10 20 Vicksburg 89 65 83 67 / 0 0 40 50 Hattiesburg 91 64 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 Natchez 89 66 83 67 / 0 0 40 30 Greenville 88 66 84 68 / 0 0 40 70 Greenwood 88 66 86 67 / 0 0 20 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Columbus AFB, MS,