Friday, December3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Hope, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:46PM Friday December 3, 2021 1:59 PM CST (19:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:50AMMoonset 5:18PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Hope, MS
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location: 33.38, -88.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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FXUS64 KJAN 031846 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1246 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

UPDATE. Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

AVIATION. 18Z TAF discussion: Sites have returned to VFR this afternoon and will continue through tonight. A drop in flight categories will occur later this evening into the overnight hours as low stratus moves in ahead of rain and a cold front. This will drop ceilings to MVFR at least and some LIFR is even possible. Light rain will affect the Delta TAF sites after 06Z. Ceilings will be slow to resume back to VFR tomorrow. /28/

DISCUSSION. Another nice day is in store across the region. Once morning fog lifted, we should see a mostly sunny day across the region. As upper ridging remains in control of the region through day, highs will climb into the 70s once again. /28/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: despite early morning satellite imagery showing an increase in high clouds from the southwest, patchy dense fog has developed across the southern half of the CWA. Areas of dense fog are still thought to be likely across our southern zones where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10AM but that Advisory may need to be extended north along the I-20 corridor if trends continue. Early morning surface analysis had an 1020mb high centered along the northeast Gulf coast. This was resulting in a light southwest flow that will continue to increase moisture over our region today ahead of approaching shortwave trough currently over the southern Plains that will move over our western zones later tonight. Dry weather today will last through the evening but light rain and/or light drizzle will work into our northwestern most zones after midnight then across much of the delta region by sunrise. Areas of fog in the southeast and patchy fog north to I-20 is expected by Saturday morning as well. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal through the period although today's highs will be cooler than Thursday's highs. Morning lows Saturday will be warmer than this morning's lows though. /22/

Saturday through Monday:

The forecast period starts off with the region situated beneath weak southern stream flow with much stronger northern stream jet energy displaced well north of the area across the northern CONUS. Surface high pressure dropping into the Midwest will push a cold frontal boundary into northern Tennessee and Arkansas with continued advection of warm and moist air into the area. This boundary will initially struggle to make further southward progression as it remains oriented parallel to weak upper flow. At the same time, a weak and low amplitude southern stream shortwave trough will slide into the area and help instigate weak surface cyclogenesis along the Red River along the stalled boundary. As such, sufficient forcing for ascent will support isolated to scattered showers across the area on Saturday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, but the main limiting factor will be a mid-level capping inversion that will stunt deeper updrafts necessary for charge separation and subsequent lightning. Thunder wording may need to be increased with later forecasts if it becomes apparent that the capping inversion will erode enough to allow for greater lightning potential.

Heading into Sunday, guidance remains in good agreement that intense Pacific jet energy diving through British Columbia and into the Northern Rockies will help carve out a stout shortwave trough that will swing through the Mississippi Valley and into New England by Monday evening. Guidance has trended slower with the frontal passage with timing now favoring late Sunday night through Monday morning. Strong tropospheric wind fields will yield 40-50kts of deep-layer vertical wind shear, but surface-based instability will be harder to come by. Dew points are forecast to remain in the low 60s with richer marine layer air confined to the Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, overnight timing amidst a lack of substantial ThetaE advection generally does not favor adequate destabilization for severe weather. The best juxtaposition of instability and wind shear prior to the diurnal minimum will be to our west where the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a marginal threat for severe weather. A few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE could support an isolated high shear low CAPE severe threat further east, but will keep the HWO/graphics clear of hazards at this time owing to previously mentioned negating factors. Any severe threat would be locally damaging winds as a line of storms pushes through overnight. Regardless, upwards of 500-800 J/kg of MUCAPE will support at least elevated thunderstorms and have subsequently maintained thunder mention in the forecast. Depending on exact timing, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may continue across southeast portions of the area into late Monday morning but this activity will be short lived as the front pushes to the Gulf Coast by the evening. Surface high pressure will quickly settle into the area overnight into Tuesday morning with much cooler and drier air.

Tuesday through Friday:

The dry and cool start to Tuesday morning will be short lived as an active stretch of weather appears increasingly likely for the mid to late week period. The previous cold front will lift back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This will allow a reservoir of low to mid 60s dew points to surge back into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. Additional Pacific jet energy diving into the Great Basin will help carve out a series of shortwave troughs that will swing through the Mississippi Valley within a persistent southwest flow regime. Isentropic ascent atop the retreating cool airmass will help support the redevelopment of elevated showers as early as Tuesday morning with increasing coverage of precipitation overnight into Wednesday as the first shortwave swings into the region. Global model guidance begins to diverge at this point as the ECMWF solution depicts a less amplified wave and a more suppressed warm sector compared to the much more amplified GFS solution. Guidance also varies with the handling of the second wave during the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Attention will need to be paid to the mid to late week period as the open Gulf of Mexico will keep sufficient moisture in place to support convection, but details regarding any severe weather potential remain murky at best right now. /TW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Jackson 76 55 76 59 / 0 8 30 7 Meridian 75 51 74 58 / 0 4 18 9 Vicksburg 76 58 76 60 / 0 14 36 7 Hattiesburg 75 53 75 58 / 0 3 10 5 Natchez 73 57 76 61 / 0 8 25 5 Greenville 76 59 73 60 / 0 31 51 18 Greenwood 74 59 73 60 / 0 19 47 17

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MS . None. LA . None. AR . None.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus/West Point/Starkville, Golden Triangle Regional Airport, MS11 mi64 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F61°F68%1018.7 hPa
Columbus Air Force Base, MS20 mi64 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F59°F63%1017.5 hPa
George M Bryan Airport, Starkville, MS24 mi65 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F59°F65%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTR

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2 days ago--W4SW40S4S3S3S30S50S6S5S5S4SE4S4SE4S5S5SW7SW10SW11
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