Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM   Moonset 4:53 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 051755 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 155 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New 18Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

The mid levels will remain active for the remainder of the weekend into Monday. High pressure will continue at the surface.

500mb trough is located along the SE coast of the US. A weak shortwave is moving through portions of northern GA currently, helping to fire some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
This convection may linger until sunrise as it travels east across areas mainly north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Morning convection could end up delaying any isold/scat convection this afternoon. Any convection that forms this afternoon will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Models are progging another shortwave to move through overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Thickness values indicate this could be an MCS type system that moves across northern portions of the state early Monday. Since the MCS has displayed some run to run consistency the last couple of days, feel comfortable with going likely pops up north as this system moves through. The timing of the MCS may need to be adjusted on later forecasts.

Areas of dense fog have developed across eastern portions of the CWA this morning. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through mid morning.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the region at the onset of the forecast period beginning Tuesday, leading to a drier and hotter midweek time frame. PoPs won't be shut off entirely but instead relegated mainly to far north Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday in the form of isolated to widely scattered convection. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week with highs ranging mainly from the upper 80s to low 90s, some 8-12 degrees above normal, though record highs are unlikely to be threatened.

The ridge will flatten by Wednesday night into Thursday while at the surface a cold front will make subtle southward progress toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As convection initiates near the front on Wednesday, model guidance continues to indicate the potential for convective complex(es) to propagate east-southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is thus the potential for at least peripheral to perhaps more direct MCS impacts to parts of north Georgia during this time frame, and the possibility for severe thunderstorms would also concomitantly increase.

The cold front will make more substantial southward progress across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with PoPs remaining elevated in advance of the front. The front then gets a shove into and across our area Thursday night into Friday, with elevated PoPs shifting southward across the area in advance of the front on Friday. The associated severe potential will need to be monitored Thursday and Friday as well as 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ kts would support a damaging wind threat, and supportive lapse rates could also lead to a hail threat.

A much cooler and drier airmass will establish itself in the wake of the front by the weekend with below normal temperatures likely to make a return.

RW

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SCT MVFR cigs in areas with more dense cu, otherwise primarily VFR conds to continue thru the aftn. Low-end chc for isold TSRA impacts at northern TAF sites from 18-23Z. Expect another wave of prevailing -SHRA from 09-15/16Z, with window from potential TSRA from 09-13Z. MVFR vsbys may accompany heaviest rainfall. Cannot rule out pds of low-MVFR to IFR cigs if overnight pcpn is weaker/lower coverage... but low confidence. Winds will remain SSW at 5-8kts during the day, shifting to the SE/light and VRB at times after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence all elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 64 82 63 86 / 30 70 50 20 Atlanta 66 83 65 86 / 40 70 60 20 Blairsville 61 76 60 80 / 40 70 70 40 Cartersville 63 82 62 86 / 50 60 50 20 Columbus 67 88 66 89 / 30 40 30 10 Gainesville 64 80 64 85 / 30 70 60 30 Macon 66 86 65 88 / 10 60 50 10 Rome 65 82 64 86 / 60 60 50 30 Peachtree City 65 85 64 87 / 40 60 50 10 Vidalia 68 86 67 90 / 20 70 60 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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