Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Texarkana, TX
May 6, 2024 6:19 AM CDT (11:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 4:16 AM Moonset 5:45 PM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 060949 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 449 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Quiet start to Monday as temperatures through the morning hold in the upper 60's and low 70's. Early morning RGB NT Microphysics imagery showcases low clouds working across the FA with some patchy to dense fog appearing on area ASOS. Given dense fog development already in progress across the I-30 corridor, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 9 AM CDT. Elsewhere, patchy fog should linger through sunrise before burning off by mid morning.
Low clouds will exist across the region through much of the day, but should see enough breaks in the clouds to allow for sfcT's to climb into the mid to upper 80's.
Aloft, weak upper ridging west of the CWA will work overhead through the late morning, before sliding east by the afternoon. That being said, shortwave troughing across Central TX and upper level energy embedded within the shortwave is progged to move into the SW zones of the FA by the afternoon. The mix of supportive GOM moisture in association with deep surface southerlies, plus diurnal sfc instability and embedded energy aloft within the progressive shortwave should help to promote some thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the Four State Region. While local severe probs remain far lower when compared to areas NW of the CWA, model soundings this morning, along with HRRR UH profiles, showcase the potential for stronger updrafts, with lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km, in a region of supportive SBCAPE values. All of this to say that a few stronger thunderstorms, where hail production and gusty winds, along with frequent lightning, can not be ruled out.
Latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for the Day 1 period continues to carry a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) just northwest of the I-30 corridor, with an extending Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
further south across SW Arkansas and NE Texas to cover the forecasted decay of what is left on the southern side of the severe threat across Central Oklahoma later today. General consensus across the morning CAM suite is for the linear composite to decay as it enters into McCurtain County early tomorrow AM.
For now, not ruling out some gusty winds as the line moves in. We will need to closely monitor trends through the afternoon on the fluid severe probs north of the I-30 corridor late this evening.
By Tuesday, mostly dry conditions will prevail locally, though there remains some low end probs for thunderstorm development as highlighted in the Day 2 SPC outlook. Similar to yesterday's afternoon package, guidance still promotes little to no thunderstorm development, with local rain chances still near 10 percent. Heat will start to become a headline as we return to the upper 80's, nearing 90 deg F Tuesday afternoon. Muggy afternoon conditions will support heat indices returning to the mid to even upper 90's in some spots, as Td's hover in the low to mid 70's.
RK
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
By Wednesday, troughing near the Four Corners will lead to ascent across the Southern Plains, supporting the return of increased severe probs locally for the Four State Region. Modest instability, steep lapse rates and ample bulk shear values will aid in the chance for mature thunderstorm development as lift associated with an advancing cold front meets an unstable airmass ahead of the boundary. Based on the latest NWP solutions, convective initiation would be sometime in the late afternoon, evolving through the early evening, possibly carrying over into the overnight period as the front advances south through early Thursday AM.
As a result of the advertised setup, the latest Day 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center advertises an expansive Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) severe threat across SW Arkansas, through SE Oklahoma, into NE Texas. This just barely enters NW Louisiana. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) exists for much of the remaining sfc area of the CWA
The aforementioned boundary will slowly work across the southern zones through Thursday/Thursday afternoon. Not ruling out additional thunderstorms across the southern zones early Thursday afternoon, but this remains somewhat uncertain at this time as it will depend on the forward speed of the front, and it's timing with diurnally driven instability across SE TX and south-central Louisiana.
By Friday AM, the front will have cleared the FA with sfc high pressure following behind. As a result, a gradual return to some below or near normal temperatures will be in order following warmer temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday. This far out, guidance still suggests the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms by the end of the upcoming weekend, and into early next week. That being said, given the uncertainty this far out, trends in the guidance will need to be closely monitored through the week.
RK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Dense fog has formed north of our northern most terminal sites across SE OK and SW AR this morning. Elsewhere, patchy fog was noted across NE TX and N LA but a mix of MVFR/IFR and in some locations, LIFR ceilings were noted across NE TX and N LA as well.
All these ceilings should continue lifting through the day with conditions eventually becoming VFR. Should see convection by late morning but especially during the afternoon advancing north and east through our airspace as well so continued with VCTS wording across most terminals. Any convection should dissipate by this evening but MVFR ceilings will return to most all terminals near or shortly before midnight.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 73 89 72 / 50 10 0 0 MLU 88 71 88 71 / 30 10 10 0 DEQ 83 66 85 66 / 50 40 0 10 TXK 85 71 87 70 / 50 30 0 10 ELD 85 69 87 68 / 40 20 0 10 TYR 84 72 87 71 / 50 20 0 0 GGG 84 72 87 71 / 50 10 0 0 LFK 85 72 90 71 / 40 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051- 059>061.
LA...None.
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 449 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Quiet start to Monday as temperatures through the morning hold in the upper 60's and low 70's. Early morning RGB NT Microphysics imagery showcases low clouds working across the FA with some patchy to dense fog appearing on area ASOS. Given dense fog development already in progress across the I-30 corridor, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 9 AM CDT. Elsewhere, patchy fog should linger through sunrise before burning off by mid morning.
Low clouds will exist across the region through much of the day, but should see enough breaks in the clouds to allow for sfcT's to climb into the mid to upper 80's.
Aloft, weak upper ridging west of the CWA will work overhead through the late morning, before sliding east by the afternoon. That being said, shortwave troughing across Central TX and upper level energy embedded within the shortwave is progged to move into the SW zones of the FA by the afternoon. The mix of supportive GOM moisture in association with deep surface southerlies, plus diurnal sfc instability and embedded energy aloft within the progressive shortwave should help to promote some thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the Four State Region. While local severe probs remain far lower when compared to areas NW of the CWA, model soundings this morning, along with HRRR UH profiles, showcase the potential for stronger updrafts, with lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km, in a region of supportive SBCAPE values. All of this to say that a few stronger thunderstorms, where hail production and gusty winds, along with frequent lightning, can not be ruled out.
Latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for the Day 1 period continues to carry a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) just northwest of the I-30 corridor, with an extending Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
further south across SW Arkansas and NE Texas to cover the forecasted decay of what is left on the southern side of the severe threat across Central Oklahoma later today. General consensus across the morning CAM suite is for the linear composite to decay as it enters into McCurtain County early tomorrow AM.
For now, not ruling out some gusty winds as the line moves in. We will need to closely monitor trends through the afternoon on the fluid severe probs north of the I-30 corridor late this evening.
By Tuesday, mostly dry conditions will prevail locally, though there remains some low end probs for thunderstorm development as highlighted in the Day 2 SPC outlook. Similar to yesterday's afternoon package, guidance still promotes little to no thunderstorm development, with local rain chances still near 10 percent. Heat will start to become a headline as we return to the upper 80's, nearing 90 deg F Tuesday afternoon. Muggy afternoon conditions will support heat indices returning to the mid to even upper 90's in some spots, as Td's hover in the low to mid 70's.
RK
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
By Wednesday, troughing near the Four Corners will lead to ascent across the Southern Plains, supporting the return of increased severe probs locally for the Four State Region. Modest instability, steep lapse rates and ample bulk shear values will aid in the chance for mature thunderstorm development as lift associated with an advancing cold front meets an unstable airmass ahead of the boundary. Based on the latest NWP solutions, convective initiation would be sometime in the late afternoon, evolving through the early evening, possibly carrying over into the overnight period as the front advances south through early Thursday AM.
As a result of the advertised setup, the latest Day 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center advertises an expansive Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) severe threat across SW Arkansas, through SE Oklahoma, into NE Texas. This just barely enters NW Louisiana. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) exists for much of the remaining sfc area of the CWA
The aforementioned boundary will slowly work across the southern zones through Thursday/Thursday afternoon. Not ruling out additional thunderstorms across the southern zones early Thursday afternoon, but this remains somewhat uncertain at this time as it will depend on the forward speed of the front, and it's timing with diurnally driven instability across SE TX and south-central Louisiana.
By Friday AM, the front will have cleared the FA with sfc high pressure following behind. As a result, a gradual return to some below or near normal temperatures will be in order following warmer temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday. This far out, guidance still suggests the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms by the end of the upcoming weekend, and into early next week. That being said, given the uncertainty this far out, trends in the guidance will need to be closely monitored through the week.
RK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Dense fog has formed north of our northern most terminal sites across SE OK and SW AR this morning. Elsewhere, patchy fog was noted across NE TX and N LA but a mix of MVFR/IFR and in some locations, LIFR ceilings were noted across NE TX and N LA as well.
All these ceilings should continue lifting through the day with conditions eventually becoming VFR. Should see convection by late morning but especially during the afternoon advancing north and east through our airspace as well so continued with VCTS wording across most terminals. Any convection should dissipate by this evening but MVFR ceilings will return to most all terminals near or shortly before midnight.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 73 89 72 / 50 10 0 0 MLU 88 71 88 71 / 30 10 10 0 DEQ 83 66 85 66 / 50 40 0 10 TXK 85 71 87 70 / 50 30 0 10 ELD 85 69 87 68 / 40 20 0 10 TYR 84 72 87 71 / 50 20 0 0 GGG 84 72 87 71 / 50 10 0 0 LFK 85 72 90 71 / 40 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051- 059>061.
LA...None.
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTXK TEXARKANA RGNLWEBB FIELD,AR | 5 sm | 26 min | S 05 | 1/2 sm | -- | Fog | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.87 |
Shreveport, LA,
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