Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:19PM Saturday October 16, 2021 1:33 AM PDT (08:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:45PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 920 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am pdt Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..From point mugu to santa Monica, nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Elsewhere, nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Combined seas 3 to 4 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Sat..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt by late afternoon. Elsewhere, ne winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming variable 10 kt or less by the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 4 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 13 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 14 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 13 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 920 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1036 mb surface high was located over colorado. A weak thermal trough of low pressure was over the southern california bight. This colorado high will stay in place through Saturday then weaken on Sunday. Gusty ne winds will affect mainly the nearshore waters from ventura to malibu tonight and Saturday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon, CA
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location: 33.51, -118.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 160556 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1056 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021

updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. 15/808 PM.

Santa Ana winds will bring continued warm and dry conditions to Southwest California through Saturday. By Sunday, winds will switch back to onshore with cooler temperatures and higher humidities. A deepening marine layer with coastal low clouds and fog is expected to return early next week, bringing more seasonable temperatures to the area.

SHORT TERM (FRI-MON). 15/915 PM.

***UPDATE***

Moderate Santa Ana winds brought very warm and dry with Red Flag conditions across Los Angeles and Ventura counties today, with similar conditions expected on Saturday. The LAX-DAG offshore pressure gradient peaked this morning at -5.6 mb, with the highest wind gust reaching 59 mph this afternoon over the L.A. County mountains. Santa Ana winds are now focused on the area from the I-5 cooridor through the Santa Clarita Valley to the Santa Monica Mountains. The Ventura County Coast got some relief from the dry, warm air with a decent late afternoon sea breeze, but remaining areas with the Santa Ana winds had relative humidities below 15%. Offshore winds are expected to remain gusty overnight, primarily affecting wind prone areas of Ventura and LA Counties, as well as the Santa Lucia mountains in San Luis Obispo county.

Overnight lows tonight will be quite warm in the foothills and windy areas, remaining in the 70s. Minor adjustments were made to the forecast, and temperatures were decreased a few degrees for interior San Luis Obispo County as values there appeared a bit too warm given what happened today.

***From Previous Discussion***

Santa Ana winds brought red flag warning conditions to most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties today. Widespread humidities less than 15 percent and gusty east to northeast winds of 25-45 mph have been common. A few foothills wind sensors peaked between 50-55 mph before noon. Temperatures warmed well into the 80s in the windier corridors with a few 90+ readings from Lake Casitas to Camarillo in Ventura Co. and near 90 degrees around the Long Beach area. For tonight, many breezier foothills in eastern Ventura County and western LA County may remain well above 70 degrees for minimum temperatures along with 10 percent humidity, a significant fire weather risk at nighttime.

East to northeast winds will likely increase late tonight for the typical Santa Ana corridors, but also downslope of the Santa Lucia Mountains in western San Luis Obispo County. Wind advisories will remain in effect for most areas through midday on Saturday. Computer model data continues to show upper level wind support a little stronger in the morning compared to today, along with surface pressure gradients nearly the same at -5mb for LAX-DAG. Temperatures and humidities will have a head start for reaching their peak/trough, respectively on Saturday. Fire starts are more concerning due to the duration of very low humidities and winds tomorrow. Many temperatures will be at least as warm as today with highs 85-95 degrees for valleys and coasts in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

Winds will reverse to onshore at coastal areas late Saturday afternoon and evening, then continue to advance more humid air into the valleys Saturday night. The mountains and deserts will continue to see poor overnight recoveries and rather dry conditions extending into Sunday afternoon. For the coast side of the mountains, Sunday will be a much cooler day with afternoon seabreezes. By Sunday night, an upper trough swings across northern CA with a cold front sliding through the central coast. The ability of this front to hold together and bring anything more than a few light sprinkles of rain to the SLO County coast early Monday morning is highly unlikely. The main effect will be a stronger onshore push of low clouds and patchy drizzle in the morning with more seasonal temperatures.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI). 15/122 PM.

Model deterministic runs and ensembles are coming into better alignment for a ridge to pop back up across CA beginning Tuesday with heights pushing 585dm by Thursday. There are at least weak offshore pressure gradients showing up (-2.7mb on ECM) on Thursday and anything stronger could contribute significantly to downslope heating and drying. That leads to uncertainty in the temperature forecasts with model data ranging from 75 to 90 degrees potentially for some coastal zones. For the most part, expect a shrinking marine layer for beach areas with temperatures climbing back above normal during the week and humidities dropping again. A peak in temperatures on Thursday looks reasonable.

The greatest uncertainty in the forecast comes toward the end of next week and the following weekend. The ridge will breakdown and slide east beginning Friday with a weakening cold front approaching the area late Saturday (Oct 23). Ensemble runs have indicated many members with precipitation on Sunday into Monday, however, newer runs have shown much drier scenarios due to the location of a large trough over the eastern Pacific. Trends in the ensembles are for a weaker part of the trough to pass through southwest CA, kind of a glancing blow. Then the trough digs well out over the central Pacific which will likely force the jet stream well to our north (get used to this sentence as La Nina will help repeat this pattern all winter). The bottom-line is that we might get a little precipitation late next weekend, but it doesn't look like it will amount to much and will have minimal impacts on our current fire season.

AVIATION. 16/0555Z.

At 0503Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion with a top around 800 feet at a temperature of 26 degrees C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs with moderate confidence in wind speed for Santa Ana winds through 21Z. There is a chance of LLWS and moderate turbulence for LA/Ventura County TAF sites through 21Z, especially around higher terrain. There is a 20% chance of restricted visibility at KSBA due to smoke from the Alisal fire.

KLAX . High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component should be less than 7 knots.

KBUR . High confidence in CAVU TAF. There is a chance of LLWS and moderate turbulence through 21Z.

MARINE. 15/952 PM.

From Ventura to Santa Monica and out to the Channel Islands, northeast Santa Ana winds close to shore will increase this morning and peak before noon. Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) will be in effect starting at 3 AM Saturday for these winds. The strongest winds will likely be closest to shore. While there is a chance that these winds will affect Santa Catalina Island including Avalon Harbor, moderate confidence that any winds that form there will be less than 15 knots.

Otherwise, not expecting SCA conditions across the coastal waters through Sunday night. For Monday and Monday night, northwest winds will strengthen across the waters with moderate confidence in SCA level winds returning to the outer waters off the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, and possibly to the east Santa Barbara Channel. Winds and seas are then expected to be below SCA levels for all coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Wind Advisory in effect until noon PDT Saturday for zones 40-41-44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Gusty northerly winds may occur across southern Santa Barbara County and the Interstate 5 Corridor on Sunday night and Monday.



PUBLIC . Phillips/EB AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Lund/Gomberg SYNOPSIS . Smith

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi38 min 62°F2 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 24 mi38 min 63°F3 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 24 mi46 min 61°F1016 hPa
46253 25 mi38 min 62°F2 ft
AGXC1 25 mi58 min NNE 5.1G6 67°F 1013.4 hPa
PFDC1 26 mi58 min N 4.1G5.1
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 27 mi34 min NE 3.9G5.8 68°F 1015.5 hPa52°F
46256 27 mi38 min 60°F2 ft
PXAC1 27 mi52 min NNW 4.1G6
BAXC1 28 mi52 min NE 8G9.9
PFXC1 28 mi46 min N 1.9G1.9 68°F
PSXC1 28 mi46 min NNE 5.1G6
PRJC1 29 mi46 min NE 2.9G4.1
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 35 mi46 min N 7G8.9 77°F 61°F1016.3 hPa
46268 36 mi64 min 68°F 58°F2 ft

Wind History for Angels Gate, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KAVX

Wind History from AVX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:40 AM PDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM PDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:55 PM PDT     1.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM PDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California (2)
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM PDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM PDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:57 PM PDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:42 PM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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