Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 5:22 PM   Moonset 3:58 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 200922 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 422 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Today and Tonight: Quiet start to the morning as a surface ridge continues to influence our weather. Patchy fog development will be possible near the Pine Belt and northeastern portions of the area during the early morning hours and dissipate after sunrise. The ridge is expected to amplify throughout the day, bringing seasonably very warm temperatures (upper 80s/lower 90s), sunny skies, and dry conditions to the region. Quiet conditions remain into the evening with low temperatures expected to be in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Due to clear skies and light winds, patchy fog will be possible once again in the Pine Belt early Tuesday morning. /SW/

Tuesday through Sunday: The long term forecast continues to be be best described as hotter than normal with increasing chances for storms. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the most influence on our weather, and with H850 temperatures approaching 20 deg C in the global models, a few locations should reach the mid 90s at some point. While the boundary layer RH is not expected to be particularly impressive through the work week, it does appear that humidity will increase by the weekend, and we will need to monitor for impactful heat stress during that time.

As we go into mid/late week, active westerlies over the Plains/MS Valley will likely suppress the ridge some and allow a cold front to approach our area. This will increase thunderstorm chances Wednesday night for northwest/northern portions of the forecast area, where increased increased moisture convergence and mid level flow could help to organize potential storms. As of now, there is a marginal risk for a few severe storms in the upper ArkLaMiss region, but it is likely that the anticyclone will delay storm impacts for most of the area until at least a day or two later, so will continue to hold off on messaging severe weather in the graphics until confidence increases. Going into Thursday and Friday, the frontal boundary will linger and promote additional chances for storms over mainly northern potions of the area. Otherwise, expect the heat and humidity to potentially build more as described earlier. /EC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning near GTR, HBG, and PIB and this may result in brief visibility reduction. Winds will be light and variable. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 88 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 89 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 91 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 89 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 91 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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