Saturday, December4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Phoenix, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:21PM Saturday December 4, 2021 7:17 AM MST (14:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:46AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phoenix, AZ
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location: 33.57, -112.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 041130 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 430 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

SYNOPSIS. Well above average temperatures and mostly clear skies are expected through Monday, with afternoon temperatures likely to be within a few degrees of daily records. The first of two systems will move through the region late Monday and into Tuesday, possibly bringing some light rain along with it. A second cooler and likely wetter and windier system is expected Thursday into Saturday. Both systems will help push temperatures gradually closer to seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION. Long wave ridge axis remains over the western US with several distinct dry upper level lows trapped beneath it at lower latitudes. One is currently over Arizona but yielding no clouds, while two further west are generating plumes of high level clouds. These features will continue to drift east across our forecast area this weekend, yielding periods of some high clouds and continued well above normal temperatures through Monday. There remain modest (~10-30%) odds of tying/exceeding daily high temperature records.

Attention turns to the first of two systems still anticipated next week. NAEFS data (primarily the due to GEFS influence) remains more optimistic with precipitation chances late Monday into Tuesday with the first system as it develops it a bit deeper into our region compared to the EPS. The latest GEFS data appears to be backing off a bit though on how it resolves the system, slightly edging closer to the non-descript EPS/CMC solutions. Clustering tools confirm that deeper and thus cooler and wetter solutions are dominated by the GEFS, yet the extent of QPF and cooling is toned down compared to previous runs. Latest GEFS/EPS IVT data indicate weaker moisture fluxes with the system, and deterministic soundings show the boundary layer remaining quite dry with saturation down to just 700 mb. Post-processed (NBM) data has brought PoPs down a bit, with just slight chance (15-30%) now focused into the higher terrain north/east of Phoenix and 10% or less chances for lower desert communities. This could still fluctuate as we progress closer to the event, but overall this continue to look like a relatively minor initial system. More notably, temperatures will 5-10F from weekend values.

A quiet interlude is expected Wednesday before the second, stronger system arrives late Thursday and persists through Friday. There remains much better agreement between the CMC/EPS/GEFS data for the second system, with surprisingly little spread given the time horizon (150+) hours of the event. There remains a minority member cluster suggesting not much of a system will develop, but a strong majority resolve into a deep trough. Probabilities for IVT values of 250+ kg/(ms) from the 03.12Z GEFS/EPS runs are 50-80%, supporting the precipitation potential. The latest 6-hr PoPs values have further increased, focusing on Thursday night through Friday. The 24-hr PoPs for measurable rainfall are now 40-50% (SE CA/SW AZ) to 70-80% (Phoenix and areas to the north/east). Individual ensemble members support the potential for higher storm-total rain, and NBM 24-hr probabilities of 1"+ are about 10% for areas north/east of Phoenix. Snow levels initially appear to likely be around 8000 ft, though could drop to as low as 3500 ft with residual showers Saturday morning with minor accumulations potentially impacting travel.

Winds could be an issue as well with the system. The EPS-based Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) indicates well over half of its members are forecasting wind gusts in excess of the model's climate across the region on Friday. Experimental NBM v4.1 data are suggesting widespread advisory levels are likely (50th percentile values of 30-40 kt).

Behind the system, a colder airmass will move in causing temperatures to fall well below normal. It is possible that once winds settle Sunday morning, typically cold low elevation locations could be flirting with sub-freezing temperatures.

AVIATION. Updated at 1130Z

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:

Winds will stay light and favor normal diurnal patterns. PHX wind shift to W likely to occur around 21Z today. Few cirrus on southern horizon. Expecting no weather impacts to aviation during TAF period.

Southwest Arizona and Southeast California including KIPL and KBLH:

Light winds persist at both terminals, with variable winds at times. Any fog formation along the far southern Colorado River Valley should remain well south of IPL this morning. Passing cirrus in southern sky. No weather- related impacts to aviation anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER. Sunday through Thursday: Temperatures will still be well above normal on Sunday and Monday, but a weather system will pass through the region Tuesday, resulting in a modest cooling trend of 5-8F. Winds will increase slightly with the passage of the system. The chance for any wetting rain is low (less than 10%). Humidity values will trend up 10-30%. Another system will begin to move in Thursday, bringing another round of winds, cooler weather, higher humidity, and the potential for wetting rains into Friday.

CLIMATE.

Record high temperatures:

Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Dec 4 83 in 1979 83 in 1958 84 in 1940 Dec 5 82 in 2012 84 in 1958 85 in 1938 Dec 6 83 in 1939 83 in 1966 87 in 1938

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Iniguez AVIATION . Heil FIRE WEATHER . Iniguez CLIMATE . 18/Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ8 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair52°F34°F50%1017.3 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ10 mi26 minESE 310.00 miA Few Clouds54°F36°F51%1016.9 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ10 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair52°F38°F59%1017.4 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ11 mi26 minN 010.00 miClear52°F34°F50%1019 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ15 mi19 minN 310.00 miFair48°F34°F59%1017.9 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi30 minE 410.00 miA Few Clouds52°F34°F50%1018.6 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ21 mi23 minNNE 510.00 miFair56°F35°F46%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDVT

Wind History from DVT (wind in knots)
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This day3NE5005S4W3S3W4W4000SE330NE8NE503E7000
1 day ago--005SW4SW5SW5SW4SW4W3000NE8NE3NE80NE5N3NE5E4SE300
2 days ago00W3W3SW4W33SW5SW6SW5N35NE8N3N5NE5NE9NE6NE3NE40NE6NE43

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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