Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 7:13 PM Moonrise 1:49 AM   Moonset 12:09 PM

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FXUS65 KPSR 012306 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 405 PM MST Wed May 1 2024

UPDATE
Updated Aviation

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions continue through at least the next week. Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday with afternoon high temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid 90s across the lower deserts. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop across the region this weekend as a low pressure system moves through to the north of us. This low pressure will also allow temperatures to cool off to near or slightly below normal for the end of the weekend and beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION
Upon analysis of upper-level water vapor imagery, there is a broad trough across western CONUS, with the low pressure system associated with this trough currently situated over Idaho and western Montana.
As this trough moves through the area we are under the influence of lower heights aloft, which will allow for slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday. This trough will slowly make its way into the Plains, putting us on the backside of the trough come Friday. This will keep lower desert afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s through Friday.

Another trough will start to dig into the Pacific NW on Saturday and then move into the Intermountain West on Sunday and Monday. Since we will be inbetween two troughs on Saturday, heights aloft will rise slightly, so expect afternoon high temperatures a couple degrees warmer than on Friday. Global ensemble members still disagree on the exact magnitude of the aforementioned trough for this weekend.
However, breezy to locally windy conditions are expected this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens as this trough moves into the region. On Saturday wind gusts of 20-30 mph are expected across southeastern California and southwestern Arizona. Stronger winds are expected on Sunday with gusts of 25-35 mph across the lower deserts and 40+ mph in the higher terrain areas. This trough will also lower heights as it moves through the area allowing afternoon high temperatures to cool off into the 80s Sunday and Monday. After this trough exits the region, zonal flow looks to return by mid-week next week, which will allow for temperatures to steadily climb back above normal. Dry conditions prevail through next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 2305Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather concerns will exist through Thursday afternoon under only a brief period of passing high cirrus. Timing of wind shifts should be nearly identical to the past 24 hours with gusts 15- 20kt early this evening around the Phoenix metro. In general, wind speeds will be slightly weaker Thursday vs today.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and warm weather will continue into the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday. A weather system moving through the region will cool off temperatures to near or slightly below normal for the end of the weekend and start of next week. Light winds, with occasional afternoon breeziness, is anticipated through Friday. Breezy to locally wind conditions will develop this weekend. Highest wind gusts are expected on Sunday where winds may gust as high as 25-35 mph across the lower deserts and up around 40 mph in the higher terrain.
Minimum relative humidity values will range from 8-20% each day.
Moisture recovery will range from poor to fair each night, or around 25-50%.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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